College Football Week 9 Havoc Rankings, Pick: Bet the Better Team in Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss

College Football Week 9 Havoc Rankings, Pick: Bet the Better Team in Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss article feature image
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David Jensen/Getty Images. Pictured: Ole Miss’ Walter Nolen.

Our Havoc Rankings could not have been more spot on in Week 8 with a focus on a service academy.

Navy covered the number with ease thanks to five turnovers from Charlotte — four interceptions with one of two fumbles being recovered by the Midshipmen.

With 10 forced fumbles on the season, Navy is clearly on the path to a conference title and a potential College Football Playoff push.

Our Havoc article moved to 4-2 on the season while looking for the biggest discrepancies in chaotic defenses and offenses to trust.

Havoc is defined by several plays that can change the momentum for both teams, including tackles for loss, pass breakups and forced fumbles on defense. Havoc Allowed, meanwhile, encompasses an offense's ability to prevent tackles for loss, throw interceptions or fumble the ball.

While Navy remains the top offense in the country from a Havoc Allowed perspective, Ole Miss takes home the title of most Havoc-minded defense entering Week 9.

Here's a look at our updated Havoc Rankings for Week 9, including each individual head-to-head game.


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Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss

Oklahoma: 127th in Havoc Allowed · Ole Miss: 1st in Havoc

The Sooners are spiraling in the wrong direction during the middle of the season.

Oklahoma survived a nonconference slate that nearly saw an upset at home by Houston. Offensive issues have continued through the SEC opener, as OU has generated one of the worst Success Rates both on the ground and through the air.

The defense has carried the team through the conference slate, needing a pick-six — a big Havoc play — at Auburn to obtain pick up its only conference victory of the season.

Offensively, injuries have mounted at the wide receiver position, while the offensive line continues to fail in generating a push in the trench. While the offense has given away the ball 20 times this season, the defense is responsible for a +6 mark in net turnover margin.

Oklahoma resides at 127th in Havoc Allowed offensively thanks to a number of critical data points.

The Sooners allow eight tackles for loss per game, while their 14 fumbles on the season are nearly the most in all of FBS.

It doesn't matter if the quarterback has been Michael Hawkins Jr. or Jackson Arnold — 25-of-125 passing attempts have ended with a contested catch.

Ole Miss — the top-ranked Defensive Havoc team in the nation — will play host to Oklahoma in Week 9.

The Rebels create some form of Havoc on 24% of snaps against opposing offenses. Only Duke has more tackles for loss than an Ole Miss team that averages 9.6 per game.

One category where head coach Lane Kiffin does not trail is pass breakups, as Ole Miss leads the nation with 41 on the season.

Oklahoma fires OC Seth Littrell, source told @ActionNetworkHQ. 1st reported by @SoonerScoop. Co-OC Joe Jon Finley will be new play caller for Sooners

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) October 20, 2024

To make matters even worse, Oklahoma will be playing under new management with offensive coordinator Seth Littrell getting fired this week.

The Sooners defense will be expected to lead the way in an effort to pull off the near-three-touchdown upset in Oxford.

However, Ole Miss plays with one of the fastest tempos in the nation, which has led to an overall Success Rate that ranks top-10 nationally.

Expect Oklahoma’s remaining healthy players and a makeshift offensive staff to have trouble keeping up with the Rebels' efficient and explosive offense.

Pick: Ole Miss -20.5 or Better

About the Author
Collin is a senior writer for the Action Network, but serves in various roles behind the scenes as well. As someone who specializes in data visualization of probabilities, power ratings, and head-to-head matchups, Collin’s work within the college football space powers the Action Network’s PRO projections throughout the college football season, and has done so since the birth of the app in 2017. Collin contributes similarly to the college basketball vertical, and his passion for predictive analytics have led him to become a key force in finding betting edges in more niche markets such as professional wrestling and entertainment awards.

Follow Collin Wilson @_Collin1 on Twitter/X.

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