The "windy under" narrative is one that's no longer novel in the college football betting world, but unless you've proactively searched for betting information as it relates to weather, it might still be eluding you — which is a problem.
Wind matters (a lot) in college football, and we've got the data to prove it.
One of our finest Action PRO Systems — all of which are included with a PRO subscription — relates solely to wind, and has produced a steady profit over the course of our entire database (back to 2005).
The theory is simple. A windy game is going to make it harder to throw — which not only limits big plays, but keeps the ball on the ground and the clock moving — reducing overall scoring.
Since 2005, games with average wind speeds of at least 13 mph have hit the under at a 57% rate — at the closing number. And plenty of these past matches have seen some heavy line movement from the opener.
In fact, 195 of them (over 20%) have dropped by at least a field goal, and still turned a profit for under bettors.
Saturday's slate features a total of 18 games at or above that 13-mph mark, with some (like Iowa State vs. Kansas State) well above that threshold, and a few sitting right on the edge that should also be on your radar.
Below you'll find the complete list of windy games, along with the over/under movement that's come as a result.
Odds and forecasts as of Saturday at 10 a.m. ET. This page will be updated into Saturday.
Ohio State @ Michigan
12 p.m. ET | FOX
- Wind speeds: 11 to 12 mph
- O/U open to current: 53 to 52
Indiana @ Purdue
12 p.m. ET | ESPN2
- Wind speeds: 15 to 16 mph
- O/U open to current: 56 to 56.5
Northwestern @ Illinois
12 p.m. ET | FOX
- Wind speeds: 15 mph
- O/U open to current: 44 to 39.5
Wyoming @ Air Force
2 p.m. ET | Facebook
- Wind speeds: 22 to 26 mph
- O/U open to current: 43 to 41
Rice @ UTEP
3 p.m. ET | ESPN3
- Wind speeds: 16 to 18 mph
- O/U open to current: 44 to 44
Baylor @ Kansas
3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
- Wind speeds: 20 mph
- O/U open to current: 54 5o 48.5
Wisconsin @ Minnesota
3:30 p.m. ET | ABC
- Wind speeds: 16 to 18 mph
- O/U open to current: 47.5 to 45
Miami @ Duke
3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2
- Wind speeds: 17 to 21 mph
- O/U open to current: 47.5 to 44.5
Maryland @ Michigan State
3:30 p.m. ET | FS1
- Wind speeds: 14 to 17 mph
- O/U open to current: 49 to 47.5
Notre Dame @ Stanford
4 p.m. ET | FOX
- Wind speeds: 14 to 16 mph
- O/U open to current: 51 to 44.5
Tulane @ SMU
4 p.m. ET | ESPNU
- Wind speeds: 12 to 14 mph
- O/U open to current: 71.5 to 70.5
Utah State @ New Mexico
4 p.m. ET | Facebook
- Wind speeds: 10 to 17 mph
- O/U open to current: 61 to 63
UAB @ North Texas
4 p.m. ET | Stadium
- Wind speeds: 14 to 18 mph
- O/U open to current: 51.5 to 49
Iowa State @ Kansas State
7 p.m. ET | FS1
- Wind speeds: 25 to 27 mph
- O/U open to current: 51.5 to 44.5
UL Monroe @ UL Lafayette
7:30 p.m. ET | ESPNU
- Wind speeds: 15 to 16 mph
- O/U open to current: 67 to 69.5
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State
8 p.m. ET | FOX
- Wind speeds: 14 to 16 mph
- O/U open to current: 69.5 to 69
Fresno State @ San Jose State
10:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2
- Wind speeds: 17 mph
- O/U open to current: 65 to 60.5
Army @ Hawaii
Sun., 12:30 a.m. ET | CBS Sports Network
- Wind speeds: 20 mph
- O/U open to current: 56.5 to 54.5
