Colorado vs. BYU Odds
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 54.5 -115o / -105u | -155 |
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 54.5 -115o / -105u | +130 |
On Saturday, Dec. 28, the Colorado Buffaloes (9-3, 7-2 Big 12) will take on the BYU Cougars (10-2, 7-2) in the 2024 edition of the Alamo Bowl.
Last fall, Colorado was viewed as a flash in the pan.
It was a microwave program, getting hot early with a bunch of splashy transfers before cooling off late while dealing with locker room issues.
That 4-8 campaign was a roller-coaster, and pundits believed that Deion Sanders’ roster experiment was doomed to fail again in 2024.
Not only did Sanders and the Buffs prove the doubters, they’re not settling for nine wins. Sanders indicates that he expects all of his starters to play in this game, a showdown with fellow Big 12 member BYU that could turn into an NFL Draft showcase for Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter.
Let's dive into my Colorado vs. BYU picks and college football predictions for the 2024 Alamo Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 28.
Colorado vs. BYU Spread and Over/Under Analysis
Brigham Young is in a bit of a jam.
The teams that had the most success against Shedeur Sanders and the Colorado passing attack featured defenses that could get after the quarterback without blitzing.
Nebraska finished the season with a top-25 pass rush, and it suffocated Sanders, sacking him six times while holding him to a season-low QBR of 19.8.
A month later, Kansas State sacked Sanders six times during a 31-28 victory in Boulder. The Wildcats pressured him 22 times in that game, and like Nebraska, that led to shorter passes (sub-8 aDOT) and a 1:1 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio.
Buffaloes' Offense Should Roll
When Sanders faces teams that struggle to generate pressure, he shreds them.
In a clean pocket, his adjusted completion percentage is 86.6%, the highest in the entire country. So, sitting back won’t be an option for BYU. But the Cougars’ 100th-rated pass rush necessitates that they blitz, as they do on a third of their defensive snaps.
And here's the rub: Sanders has the third-highest adjusted completion percentage when facing the blitz, a 5:1 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio, and a deep-shot mentality when staring down the barrel of a blitz (9.6 YPA).
All of these stats just mean that you’re damned if you do, damned if you don’t when facing Sanders.
If Colorado finds its fifth gear offensively and scores 34 or more for the sixth time in its last seven games, can BYU keep pace against a boom-or-bust Colorado defense?
Can Colorado's Defense Hold Up?
The Buffaloes' defensive résumé is a bit of a head-scratcher.
On one hand, they can be pushed around in the box, having finished 98th in Rush EPA allowed while giving up 149 yards per game on the ground (69th).
But when they get a chance to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback, they’ve flipped games in their favor.
Colorado ranks 11th in coverage and 13th in Defensive Havoc. It picked off 12 passes and recovered 12 fumbles on the season.
The Buffs simply make big plays in this secondary, and it starts with Travis Hunter taking away the opponent's top receiving target.
In this game, Hunter will be floating between the big-bodied Chase Roberts and Darius Lassiter.
Unfortunately for BYU, Lassiter must sit the first half after getting booted from its season finale against Houston following an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty.
A depleted receiving corps will struggle to create separation against CU, but that’s not even the worst news for BYU backers.
The Cougars’ offensive line has been a MASH unit as of late. They’re down to their third option at right tackle, Weylin Lepuaho, who is normally a guard. Connor Pay has returned at center, but he may be flanked by rotating options at both guard positions.
If they struggle to keep quarterback Jake Retzlaff upright, it’s going to be a long night for the BYU offense.
Unlike Sanders, Retzlaff wilts under pressure, having thrown four interceptions and just one touchdown when facing pressure this season.
Alamo Bowl Pick: Colorado -4
