The Big 12 has heated up through the past month of play, as Colorado (8-2, 6-1 Big 12) and Kansas (4-6, 3-4 Big 12) have ascended in the conference standings.
So, let's dive into my Colorado vs. Kansas predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 23.
With a new offensive coordinator to start the season, head coach Lance Leipold started the season with five consecutive FBS losses. The second-order win total for Kansas will have indicators pointing sky-high in 2025, as the Jayhawks' 6 losses have come by an average of just 5 points. Leipold now has a lethal ground attack that has won 3 of 4, including the first loss for BYU in Provo last week.
Colorado also changed the coordinator position, as head coach Deion Sanders has seen a massive improvement in the defense. The Buffaloes have won seven of the last eight games, losing to only Kansas State with a post-game win expectancy of a coin flip. Supported by 2 of the best players in college football, Colorado is in the hunt for a Big 12 championship and a bye in the College Football Playoff.
Colorado is a 2.5-point favorite on the road in Kansas City, where Kansas has played its conference home games in Arrowhead Stadium. This is a must-win game for a Jayhawks team looking to make a third consecutive bowl game. The over/under is 59.5.
Colorado vs Kansas Prediction, Pick
My Colorado vs Kansas best bets are on the under and the Jayhawks to cover the spread, with the best lines currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Colorado vs Kansas Odds
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -102 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -146 |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -120 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +122 |
- Colorado vs Kansas Point Spread: Colorado -3.5 (-102) · Kansas +3.5 (-120)
- Colorado vs Kansas Total: Over/Under 59.5
- Colorado vs Kansas Moneyline: Colorado -146 · Kansas +122
Colorado vs Kansas Preview
Colorado Buffaloes Betting Preview: Travis & Shedeur Show
While the college football world focuses on the outstanding play of two future NFL players on offense, Colorado's story is its transformation under defensive coordinator Robert Livingston.
The defense has improved in every facet at all three levels, generating a top-25 Havoc ranking and coverage grading.
A trio of edge rushers have been crucial to a rising defensive line with B.J. Green II, Samuel Okunlola, and Arden Walker combining for 74 pressures. However, the highlights from the defense have all come from the Heisman odds leader in corner Travis Hunter.
“Dad, how good was Travis Hunter?” pic.twitter.com/3k6izsroco
— College Football Alerts (@CFBAlerts_) November 16, 2024
Outside of the nearly 600 snaps on defense and seven passes defended, Hunter is also the leader in targets on offense. Quarterback Shedeur Sanders has connected with Hunter 74 times this year to create an explosive 2.4 yards per route run. Sanders has been one of the most accurate passers in the nation, as Colorado ranks seventh in catchable ball rate, per Sports Info Solutions.
If there is an area where both the defense and offense have struggled, the explosive rush has created a rank outside the top 100 on both sides of the ball in expected points.
Kansas Jayhawks Betting Preview: Better Than Their Record
In 10 games this season, Kansas has produced a second-order win total of 5.6, bringing its real record closer to 6-4 than its current 4-6.
The Jayhawks have been electric against the toughest competition the Big 12 can offer over the past month, beating BYU and Iowa State while suffering a two-point loss to Kansas State.
The offense has been humming on the ground, but the defense in Provo served BYU its first loss of the season.
The Cougars were held to no explosive drives and a disappointing 2.6 points on possessions crossing into scoring territory. A critical play on a pooch punt was a positive break the Jayhawks needed for their season.
This was the ridiculous sequence that followed, resulting in a Kansas go-ahead TD at BYU.
Mark Jones, Roddy Jones, and rules analyst Matt Austin on the call for ESPN.🏈😵💫🎙️ https://t.co/0fH8WIaCgdpic.twitter.com/O8f5P7Wlz6
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) November 17, 2024
The rushing attack on offense has been a main contributor in the turnaround for Kansas.
New offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes uses a heavy amount of outside zone, allowing his tackles to clear the way for quarterback Jalon Daniels and running back Devin Neal. The Jayhawks have the 11th-most efficient rush offense in the nation, combined with the ability to overpower in short yardage situations with a top-10 number in stuff rate. More importantly, Kansas is third nationally in average rushing distance before first contact.
Colorado vs Kansas
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Colorado and Kansas match up statistically:
Colorado Offense vs. Kansas Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 77 | 103 | |
| Line Yards | 115 | 124 | |
| Pass Success | 34 | 62 | |
| Havoc | 93 | 43 | |
| Finishing Drives | 24 | 59 | |
| Quality Drives | 67 | 93 | |
Kansas Offense vs. Colorado Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 11 | 38 | |
| Line Yards | 6 | 43 | |
| Pass Success | 21 | 33 | |
| Havoc | 25 | 16 | |
| Finishing Drives | 4 | 33 | |
| Quality Drives | 62 | 38 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 45 | 95 |
| PFF Coverage | 22 | 76 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 100 | 81 |
| Middle 8 | 7 | 102 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.7 (39) | 29.2 (112) |
| Rush Rate | 43% (130) | 58% (26) |
Colorado vs Kansas Pick & Prediction
The good news for Kansas on defense is a sporadic Colorado offense in rushing efficiency.
The Jayhawks have one of the worst Power Four rush defenses, evident by a rank of 124th in line yards. Colorado elects to use the rush on 42% of snaps, as the Buffaloes elect to pass the ball on first down at the 12th-highest rate in the nation. Sanders has been elite in passing this season, generating 22 big-time throws to just five turnover-worthy plays. Colorado has dominated against defenses showing Cover 3, but the Jayhawks lean to Cover 1.
Offensive Momentum Killer will play a large part in this contest — a metric that calculates interceptions, fumbles, missed field goals, sacks, and penalties. Colorado brings a rank outside the top 100 in offensive momentum killer as opposed to Kansas at 15th in FBS.
There may be a hidden factor in the overall rush analytics that favors Colorado, as outside zone has been one of the best run concepts the Buffaloes have been able to defend. With the strength of the defense coming from numerous players in the rotation at edge, Colorado should throw road blocks to the Jayhawks' potent ground attack.
The Action Network Power Rankings call for Kansas to be favored by a point, giving the Jayhawks the nod at the current market. Considering the narrow margin of victory in every Jayhawks game, a buy to 3 is suggested at juice no larger than -120.
As for the total, Colorado may struggle to attack Cover 1, while Kansas' outside zone feeds right into the strength of the Buffaloes' defense. With 59 as one of the biggest keys in college football, an under is the play at Arrowhead.
Pick: Under 59 or Better · Kansas +3 (-120 or Better)
Colorado vs Kansas Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 23 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
Colorado vs Kansas will be played at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri, on Saturday, Nov. 23 at 3:30 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on FOX.
