Welcome to our expert debate for college football Week 12 and our Colorado vs Utah picks and college football predictions for which team will cover the spread.
Colorado is an 11-point favorite on the spread and a -500 favorite on the moneyline with a 45-point over/under. The game kicks off at 12 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on FOX.
Throughout the 2024 college football season, our betting experts will preview the biggest marquee matchups and go back and forth on the cases for both teams to cover the spread, giving you all the information you need for your college football picks.
Let's learn how to bet Colorado at Utah for NCAAF Week 12 on Saturday, November 16.
Colorado vs Utah Odds, Spread, Lines
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -500 |
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +375 |
- Colorado vs. Utah spread: Colorado -11 (-110) | Utah +11 (-110)
- Colorado vs. Utah over/under: 45 points
- Colorado vs. Utah moneyline: Colorado ML (-500) | Utah ML (+375)
Why Colorado Can Cover the Spread
Before we get into the on-field stuff, let's first discuss Colorado's substantial motivational edge in this game.
What on earth does Utah have to play for? The Utes have won two conference championships in the past three years. They entered the season as the favorite to win the Big 12 and had their sights set on the College Football Playoff.
Instead, they have lost five straight games and likely won’t even reach a bowl game. The team is in free fall and lost a heartbreaking match against their bitter rivals.
The Utes blew an 11-point lead and lost on a game-winning field goal with three seconds left. Utah believes that the game was stolen from them. The athletic director ran around like a lunatic, threatening referees after the game. It would be impossible not to have an emotional letdown here.
Meanwhile, Colorado is a team that does a lot of talking, and the Buffaloes are finally backing it up. They're 7-2 and control their destiny to reach the Big 12 Championship game and the chance at a playoff berth in the second season under Coach Prime.
Colorado is playing with swagger and confidence right now (obviously), and its play on the field matches that energy. If they take care of business, they have everything in front of them. Motivation and focus will be on their side in this game.
And I don’t want to hear anything about Utah trying to play spoiler. The Utes just had a chance to hand their most hated rival its first loss of the season and play the ultimate spoiler to a top-10 foe, and they blew it at Rice-Eccles Stadium.
They have a massive advantage on the sideline and on the field. Colorado will have the three best players in this game by a mile, Travis Hunter, Shedeur Sanders, and Travis Hunter.
Utah hasn’t been able to score more than 21 points since September, and Colorado has scored at least 34 points in five of its last six games. The offense is humming, the defense is drastically improved, and everything is set up for the Buffs to keep rolling against a reeling Utah team that will struggle to get off the mat.
Why Utah Can Cover the Spread
I just think 11 is too many points for Utah’s elite defense to be catching.
Colorado is good. The Buffaloes are much better than last season, but they still have many of the same issues as last year’s team.
In particular, the offense is one-dimensional.
The Buffs pass at a top-10 rate nationally and rank top-20 in EPA per Dropback and Pass Success Rate. Shedeur Sanders is — in my opinion — the best quarterback in the nation. There’s no shortage of weapons on the outside.
But they still can’t run the ball, ranking 112th in EPA per Rush and 85th in Rush Success Rate. Half the reason I believe Sanders is the best quarterback in the nation is that he continually makes plays despite scrambling behind a useless offensive line — the front five ranks among the bottom 15 units in Line Yards.
Utah’s secondary is nasty. Slot corner Smith Snowden has allowed only 16 receptions on 44 targets (36%) with five PBUs and an interception. Wide corner Cam Calhoun has seen more snaps as the season has progressed, and he’s allowed only 12 receptions on 29 targets (41%). Tao Johnson is among the better deep safeties in college football.
Utah Ranks 14th nationally in EPA per Dropback allowed and sixth in Pass Success Rate allowed. The Utes are always dominant against the pass, and they’ll be even better on Saturday because they won’t have to worry about bringing defenders into the box.
Utah’s offense is lifeless without Cam Rising. But the Utes can still somewhat run the ball, and that’ll work against a Colorado front seven that ranks 80th in EPA per Rush allowed and 85th in Rush Success Rate allowed.
They should keep it on the ground, churn the clock, limit possessions and shorten the game. Combine that with elite pass defense on the back end, and Kyle Whittingham’s squad can keep this one within single digits.
Why Buffaloes Are Better Bet
Ianniello: Utah does have terrific defensive numbers, but look at the offenses it has faced this season.
Who is the best quarterback the Utes have faced this year? Probably Josh Hoover?
Sanders is an entirely different animal. He averages 320 yards per game and has slung 24 touchdowns (third in the country) to just six interceptions. He averages 8.4 yards per attempt and has only five turnover-worthy plays on the season, the fewest among any quarterback in the top 30 in passing yards.
Everybody knows Hunter is a star. He averages 95 yards per game and has nine touchdowns in nine games. But this receiving room is much deeper than just Hunter. LaJohntay Wester, Will Sheppard, and Jimmy Horn are all averaging more than 48 receiving yards per game.
Wester and Sheppard were the leading receivers at FAU and Vanderbilt before transferring to Colorado. This offense will be the biggest test the Utes have faced all season, and the Buffaloes have not been held under 28 points in seven straight games.
As good as Utah’s defense is, the Utes won't be able to hold the Buffs off enough for their offense to keep up.
They rank 115th nationally in Success Rate. Cam Rising is done for. Back-up Isaac Wilson was benched for Brandon Rose, but Rose is now out for the year, so the Utes will be forced to start Wilson again — Zach's younger brother has eight touchdowns to eight picks this year.
To make matters worse, tight end Brant Kuithe, the only good player on this Utah offense, is now out for the season.
Tanner thinks Utah can run the ball. Yet, the Utes rank 95th nationally in Rushing Success Rate. For comparison, the Colorado team Tanner said “is one-dimensional” and “can’t run the ball” ranks 77th in Rushing Success rate. Colorado has 11 rushing touchdowns on the season, while Utah has six. The Buffaloes have that many in the last four games alone.
So, I guess that means Utah’s offense is no-dimensional. This team does nothing well and cannot keep up with this Colorado attack.
Why Utes Are Better Bet
McGrath: Does Colorado have a massive motivational advantage?
Don’t you think last week’s stolen game would motivate the Utes? Utah is a proud program. Kyle Whittingham has kept them competitive and motivated over the past few years despite his star quarterback's constant injury issues.
Utah isn’t the type of program that lays down; it gets up off the mat and fights back after brutal, unfair one-point losses. And it’ll be easily motivated against a Colorado team that won’t stop yapping.
Meanwhile, the Buffs are on top of the world. They’re at the mountaintop, already looking ahead to the Big 12 championship game. It’ll be challenging for Coach Prime to keep his kids’ heads in the game when they’re laying big numbers over the final three weeks — it’ll be tough this week against a third-string quarterback.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a letdown game from Colorado after a flurry of wild wins.
Why Buffaloes Will Cover
Ianniello: I do not think last week motivated the Utes; I think it deflated them.
The Holy War is among college football's most bitter and hate-fueled rivalries, and that was only enough to motivate Utah to 21 points and 259 total yards at home.
Utah is well coached, but it has surprisingly not done the little things well this season. It ranks 116th nationally in turnover margin and 125th in PFF's Tackling grades.
That's a massive problem against Colorado. The Buffalos rank 21st in turnover margin, and with all the speed on this team, if you miss a tackle, it will result in six points.
Colorado is elite on offense and above average on defense. This front seven has really improved throughout this season. They rank 51st in Rush Success Rate allowed and 29th at creating Havoc.
The Buffaloes get after the quarterback, ranking ninth in the country in sacks and 22nd in tackles for loss. BJ Green has lived in opponents' backfields, and five Buffaloes have at least three sacks.
Wilson has been sacked 14 times in just five starts and has completed a putrid 29.2% of his passes when under pressure. I expect this defense to make life hell for Wilson, and running the ball will not be enough to keep up with Colorado.
Why Utes Will Cover
McGrath: Brother, the Utes held Josh Hoover and Co. to 13 points and 199 yards passing.
They also held Noah Fifita to a 50% completion rate (20-for-40) and 1,000-yard receiver Tetairoa McMillan to his second-worst game of the year (50 yards on six catches).
Hey, BYU’s Jake Retzlaff is having a pretty great year. He mustered up a whopping 112 passing yards against Utah’s secondary.
Utah has played a half-decent schedule of opposing passing attacks. But more importantly, the Utes have overwhelmed all of them.
Sanders might be a different animal, but he’s not immune to a tough night against an elite secondary. And — to counter your point — Utah will be the best passing defense he’s faced yet. I absolutely think the Utes will hold the Buffs down for 60 minutes.
Yeah, the Utah offense is miserable. But the defense continues to step up, which is why the Utes have lost their past three games by a combined 10 points.
I expect another single-digit loss on Saturday.
Colorado vs Utah Picks and Predictions
Colorado -11
Ianniello: Whittingham is a terrific coach, without question. But the respect that everybody has for him is continually causing this team to be overvalued. Utah is horrible.
The Utes might be the worst team in the Big 12.
The Utes have gone just 3-6 against the spread this season, while Colorado has gone 7-2 against the spread this year and 4-1 ATS as a favorite. The market has just been slow in adjusting these two teams from their preseason expectations.
Utah had a chance to add some positivity to a devasting season by playing the ultimate spoiler to their undefeated rival, but they still came up short. This team is down, deflated, and lifeless. They have nothing to play for and no reason to care about this game with their season cooked.
Colorado has everything to play for. The Buffaloes are in the driver's seat for the Big 12 Championship game, control their destiny for the College Football Playoff, and have the Heisman Trophy favorite capable of dominating this game on both sides.
Try to forget your preseason expectations for Utah and your respect for Whittingham. This team is terrible.
Utah +11
McGrath: Mike thinks Coach Prime and Co. will come out against a third-string-led offense with their hair on fire.
I think they sleepwalk through the first half.
And in the second half, I think the Utah defense will comfortably drop eight into coverage against a one-dimensional offense, resulting in QB1’s worst game of the year.
Expect a rock fight. The Utes are more comfortable in those, anyway.
