College Football Odds & Picks: Colorado State vs. Fresno State Betting Guide

Colorado State at Fresno State Odds

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Colorado State Rams

New head coach Steve Addazio has had a heck of a ride in Fort Collins without even coaching a game. Allegations of racism and mishandling of COVID-19 cases paused the program in August.

Last weekend, the Rams were set to start the Mountain West season with New Mexico, but the spike of coronavirus cases in Bernalillo County in New Mexico canceled the opener. This allowed Addazio a few extra days of prep for Fresno State.

Colorado State was set to bring back 76% of production from an offensive unit that ranked 56th in Success Rate. The primary weapons were in the wide receiver group, but Warren Jackson leaves a huge hole after opting out of the season for the NFL Draft.

Jackson had 127 targets and 1,119 yards in 2019, but experience still remains in the group. Four other players recorded at least 34 targets last season.

There should be a shift in scheme change for Colorado State. The offense ran primarily 75% pass through 11 personnel under Mike Bobo, a stark contrast to Boston College over the last several years.

Addazio runs 11 and 12 personnel, with a rushing rate of 62% and 78%, respectively. The Rams may try to flip from a spread-heavy passing attack to a two-tight end/rush dominant offense.

Fresno State Bulldogs

Kalen DeBoer opened his head-coaching career with a loss to Hawaii. Fresno State had 17 missed tackles and allowed 554 yards to the Rainbow Warriors. Hawaii gained 64% of available yards and accumulated at least two first downs on 81% of possessions. Fresno State ranks 97th in rush defense after one game, per Pro Football Focus.

On the offensive side of the ball, Hawaii stuffed 14-of-34 rushing attempts and held Fresno State to just 1.8 points per trip past the 40-yard line. Washington transfer quarterback Jake Haener was under pressure all evening, enduring three sacks and tossing three interceptions.

DeBoer mentioned the wide receiver unit must get healthy, specifically Jalen Cropper, who dealt with an ankle tweak. There are a number of health issues on defense, as lead returning tackler Arron Mosby is dealing with an injury that will keep him limited against Colorado State.

Betting Analysis & Pick

The news from Colorado State's recent scrimmage was offensive coordinator Joey Lynch calling for no-huddle pace and tempo as the norm. Under Addazio last season, Boston College finished fifth in seconds per play.

Another factor to the Rams looking more like Boston College is the influx of transfers. Three offensive linemen from Addazio's 2019 roster headed to Colorado State and expect to start immediately.

Fresno State ran plays at 23.8 seconds per play, good enough to place in the top 30 in pace so far this season. Colorado State will look to play with even more tempo with a ground-based attack.

The advantage in this game may come in the unknown of what the Rams will put on the field. In the COVID-19 era, teams on their first game playing teams on their second game or more are yielding big returns to investors.

Considering the missed tackles, injuries and speedy ramp-up of football activities, the Bulldogs may be a fade until further notice. Colorado State is implementing a new scheme with plenty of pace.

In a normal college football season, that would be an item to fade in the first game, but in the COVID era, it has turned into a positive. The Rams should have plenty of success behind an offensive line that knows Addazio's system.

Pick: Colorado State ML (up to -130)

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