Colorado State Rams vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Odds
| Colorado State Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 54.5 -105o / -115u | -225 |
| Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 54.5 -105o / -115u | +180 |
In the late-night spot of rivalry week, we go to the island of Hawaii, where the Colorado State Rams will visit the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors.
Colorado State enters this one at 5-6 with an opportunity to make the postseason with a win, while the Rainbow Warriors have the chance to play spoiler.
Hawaii is only 4-8 on the year, so its playoff hopes are dead.
The games on the island always seem to be a little funky with the time difference. Will the time change and holiday week play into Hawaii's favor, or will Colorado State get it done this week to make the postseason?
Colorado State Rams
Jay Norvell's team is heading into Honolulu amid a two-game winning streak, looking to cap off the regular season with a win and a playoff berth.
This year has been a step up from a year ago when the Rams finished 3-9.
This would be a massive win for the Rams to earn the extra practices that come with bowl season and some extra recruiting help to keep this program moving forward.
The Colorado State offense has been pretty solid this year despite their 5-6 record. The Rams rank 68th in Success Rate, weighted heavily by their 46th-ranked Pass Success Rate.
The Rams love to air it out, ranking fourth in pass play rate. This makes sense as they look to play to their strengths and put the ball in the hands of Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi.
Fowler-Nicolosi has thrown for an impressive 3,143 yards on the year, but he does have 15 interceptions. Some of these are to be expected, given how often he is dropping back, but he will need to make sure he takes care of the ball in this one.
Their run game is abysmal, ranking 112th in Success Rate, so the Rams will lean into good quarterback play and taking care of the football in this one.
The Rams’ defense has been pretty solid this season, allowing 29.8 points per game. Colorado State has a solid run defense that ranks 54th in Success Rate allowed.
The pass defense is a little weaker at 92nd in Pass Success Rate allowed, but the Colorado State defense can rally to the ball well, as they rank 66th in Havoc created and 43rd in Explosiveness.
This should make it challenging for Hawaii to get easy scores unless it is after a turnover. Colorado State has a -5 turnover margin on the year, so they will need to improve upon that in this one to steal a road win.
Hawaii Warriors
Hawaii has been playing better lately under head coach Timmy Chang, who has had some experience on Jay Norvell’s staff over at Nevada. These two guys know each other well, so I imagine they will try to pull a few tricks out of their bag to get the edge over the other in this one.
Hawaii last upset Air Force on their home turf two weeks ago and are 2-3 in their last five. This would be another excellent opportunity to play spoiler at home and win as home underdog.
The Rainbow Warriors operate very similarly to Colorado State in that they love to air the ball out, ranking first nationally in pass play rate.
They average 20.9 points per game, with Brayden Schager at quarterback. Schager has also topped 3,000 yards passing this season and will add to it Saturday night.
The only thing is that Hawaii’s offense is not as fundamentally sound as Colorado State’s. Hawaii ranks 110th in Rush Success Rate and 79th in Pass Success Rate, creating zero Explosiveness.
The defense for Hawaii is a bit better, but not by much. They rank 84th in Success Rate allowed, with their pass defense performing better.
The Rainbow Warriors allow 32.9 points per game, and I figure Colorado State will be able to put up some points against this weaker defense.
Colorado State vs Hawaii
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Colorado State and Hawaii match up statistically:
Colorado State Offense vs. Hawaii Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 117 | 78 | |
| Line Yards | 126 | 75 | |
| Pass Success | 46 | 119 | |
| Havoc | 78 | 46 | |
| Finishing Drives | 71 | 111 | |
| Quality Drives | 107 | 127 | |
Hawaii Offense vs. Colorado State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 111 | 57 | |
| Line Yards | 120 | 50 | |
| Pass Success | 80 | 92 | |
| Havoc | 116 | 59 | |
| Finishing Drives | 114 | 38 | |
| Quality Drives | 77 | 116 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 39 | 117 |
| PFF Coverage | 59 | 116 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 28 | 55 |
| Middle 8 | 131 | 94 |
| Seconds per Play | 22.7 (6) | 26.8 (65) |
| Rush Rate | 39.6% (129) | 38.0% (133) |
Colorado State vs Hawaii
Betting Pick & Prediction
These two teams are very similar, with coaches from the same coaching tree, but I think Colorado State is the better football team.
The handicap gets trickier with this game being on the Island during a holiday week, but Colorado State should've had enough time to adjust after flying in on Thursday.
I expect the Rams to take care of the ball on their way to a convincing victory.
Pick: Colorado State -5.5
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