Nevada vs Colorado State Odds
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -175 |
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
This Mountain West matchup has been marked on the calendars for both of these programs since the offseason.
Despite the two programs combining for a 2-7 record, we are in store for some fireworks as Colorado State travels to Nevada.
The reason is that Colorado State head coach Jay Norvell returns to Nevada after leaving the Wolf Pack in controversial fashion last season. Norvell committed to heading to Colorado State in December of last year, which was prior to Nevada’s bowl game.
Norvell’s replacement at Nevada, Ken Wilson, had some aggressive criticism for Norvell’s approach this week. Those comments added fuel to the fire for this matchup.
Norvell’s decision hasn’t panned out quite as he hoped. He brought 11 transfers and five true freshmen with him to the Rams during the offseason while decimating the Nevada roster in the process.
The Rams are one of two FBS schools that are winless entering October. The other is Colorado, which fired its head coach Karl Dorrell on Sunday.
This will be one of the most anticipated games of the year for both programs.
Nevada Wolf Pack
Nevada opened the season with two victories over bottom-feeders in the FBS. The Wolf Pack were lucky to outlast New Mexico State after losing the turnover battle 5-0.
Since those two victories, the program has come back to earth, losing its last three matchups by a combined 69 points. One of those losses came by 14 points at the hands of an FCS opponent, Incarnate Ward.
The deck was stacked against Wilson, who was left a roster of skin and bones. The Wolf Pack ranked 127th in the nation in returning production, according to TARP. In addition to all the transfers, the program lost quarterback Carson Strong and is changing its identity to a more run-heavy offense.
Through the first five games, the Wolf Pack own a rush rate just shy of 60% and are averaging 3.5 yards per carry. A dozen of the 14 touchdowns scored by the offense have come on the ground.
6-foot-9 quarterback Nate Cox has struggled early, totaling 70 passing yards against New Mexico State, Texas State and Iowa. He’s completed just over 55% of his passes for an average of 6.2 yards per attempt.
The Wolf Pack defense has been nonexistent over the last three weeks. It allowed 55 points to Incarnate Ward, 48 points to Air Force and 27 points to Iowa in a hurricane.
The program is allowing 6.1 yards per play and has been outgained by an average of 140 yards per game this season.
Colorado State Rams
It’s been a rock-bottom start for the Colorado State football program, which has been arguably one of the worst teams in the nation to this point. The Rams lost their opening four games by a cumulative score of 164-43.
Among those losses was a 31-point defeat to Sacramento State. That was the program’s second-ever victory over an FBS program in 25 attempts.
The offense ranks amongst the bottom in the country in scoring averaging — only 11 points per game.
Much of the struggles have fallen on the offensive line, as the Rams are putting up just 1.4 yards per rushing attempt. On running plays, the program ranks 130th or worse in Success Rate, PPA and Explosiveness.
The Rams have allowed an FBS-high 25 sacks through the first four games — 6.25 per game.
They have found some success through big plays behind the arm of quarterback Clay Millen. The redshirt freshman quarterback is averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt and has completed 74% of his passes this season.
Millen was 7-for-7 passing against Sacramento State before he was knocked out with a shoulder injury, which has left him questionable for this matchup.
But that doesn’t seem to concern Norvell, as backup quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has received much praise from the program. He’s seen limited game action, completing 6-of-15 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown this season.
Nevada vs Colorado State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Nevada and Colorado State match up statistically:
Colorado State Offense vs. Nevada Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 131 | 113 | |
| Line Yards | 115 | 83 | |
| Pass Success | 120 | 67 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 127 | 118 | |
| Havoc | 131 | 88 | |
| Finishing Drives | 128 | 108 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Nevada Offense vs. Colorado State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 90 | 108 | |
| Line Yards | 97 | 63 | |
| Pass Success | 110 | 110 |  |
| Pass Blocking** | 105 | 15 | |
| Havoc | 110 | 95 | |
| Finishing Drives | 58 | 117 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 46 | 95 |
| PFF Coverage | 54 | 44 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 115 | 19 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.2 (118) | 25.8 (45) |
| Rush Rate | 55.4% (52) | 58.9% (27) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Nevada vs Colorado State Betting Pick
I have both teams power rated near the bottom 10 in the country through the first month of the season. There isn’t much to love about what either side has produced at this point in the season, as both programs have suffered double-digit losses to FCS opponents.
Nevada was dealt a tough hand, given it ranked 127th in the nation in returning production. That was a direct result of Norvell’s decision to take nearly 16 players with him to Colorado State.
Though Colorado State has been gruesomely bad to date, I anticipate this to be the game that the Rams right the ship. They will find some success with the rushing attack, which has been the missing component this year.
The Action Network Pro Systems makes Colorado State +0.5 in this matchup, and I agree. Despite taking only 36% of the ticket count, the Rams account for 75% of the money wagered on this game.
I am on the same page as the sharps with this matchup, and I envision Colorado State finding its first win of the season. But I'll take the free field goal just to be safe.
