Boise State vs. Colorado State Football Odds
| Boise State Odds | -13.5 (-118) [BET NOW] |
| Colorado State Odds | +13.5 (-104) [BET NOW] |
| Moneyline | +410 / -590 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 61.5 (-105 / -115) [BET NOW] |
| Time | Thursday, 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Colorado State Rams
Head coach Steve Addazio has had two wildly different performances in as many games to start 2020 with Colorado State.
In an opening loss to Fresno State, the Rams split quarterback duties between Patrick O'Brien and Temple transfer Todd Centeio. Unfortunately for Addazio, that strategy failed to deliver the desired results. The Rams achieved a modest 35% success rate on passing plays and zero explosive drives.
Then last week against Wyoming, the quarterback position belonged solely to O'Brien, and the Rams' passing play success rate jumped to 48% in a victory.
Patrick O'Brien out here throwing darts 🎯@CSUFootball scores a big time TD to go back up 14. pic.twitter.com/NSRkQnkgGQ
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) November 6, 2020
No matter if Addazio elects to run or pass, Colorado State ranks in the top 10 in tempo. If the offensive success rate and finishing drives get any kind of boost, the Rams are an over play in the Mountain West. That is correlated to a pass defense that has yet to prevent explosiveness.
Wyoming, which is not known for an air attack, had 10 passes of at least 15 yards last Thursday. The Rams are doing a fantastic job at controlling the trenches, ranking ninth in Line Yards and 20th in Stuff Rate. Run-dominant opposition will not have much success, but Colorado State's defensive grade of 112th in coverage exposes a hole in the secondary.
Boise State Broncos
The Broncos had their doors blown off by BYU in a Week 10 game that featured two undefeated Group of Five teams. There were issues at quarterback, as starter Hank Bachmeier was ruled out pregame and backup Jack Sears exited in the middle of the second offensive drive.
Freshman Cade Fennegan entered the game, which resulted in the passing game explosiveness disappearing for Boise State. Head coach Bryan Harsin remained hopeful to have all quarterbacks available for Thursday night's game.
The handicap leading into the BYU game was Boise State's defensive deficiency against the pass. Boise State now ranks 107th in defensive passing expected points. Along with ranks outside the top 100 in line yards and finishing drives, the Broncos have been a pushover on defense.
The more amazing statistic from the Boise defense is a grade of 20th in tackling, translating to the secondary being out of place. Safeties Avery Williams and Tyreque Jones have a combined two missed tackles, but are giving up an average of 20 yards per catch when targeted.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The formula for each team is pretty simple: Win passing success rate, and win this game.
Colorado State has been one of the worst teams in the nation in coverage and defensive finishing drives, while Boise State ranks outside the top 100 in plenty of defensive splits.
The biggest handicap in this game is the quarterback status for Boise State. Our Action Network projection of Boise State minus-17 is based upon a healthy Bachmeier or Sears. A Broncos team with Fennegan or Andy Peters would project closer to the opener of -13.
The same goes for the total: Bachmeier's improved offensive passing success rate should lead to more explosive scores for the Broncos.
Keep in mind this is Boise State's third game in 13 days, while Colorado State has had a full week of rest. Harsin stressed that routine was important to Boise State football, and that the team is dealing with many more variables than in previous seasons.
If Fennegan is the Broncos starter at quarterback, then Colorado State is the play at any number over two touchdowns. This may be a pregame "check Twitter for warm-up status" type of game, with respect to the Broncos' quarterback situation.
As for the total, Colorado State will continue to run tempo on offense and Boise State will continue to gain yards via its explosive passing attack. Fennegan was able to string together two late touchdowns against BYU to go over the total, but the Broncos' starting quarterback will be the deciding factor for an over/under play.
Boise State may elect to run straight into a stout Rams front seven if Sears or Bachmeier do not play.
Look to take Colorado State at +17 or better if Fennegan is under center and over the posted total if Bachmeier or Sears get the start for Boise State.
Pick: Colorado State +17 or better
