Duke vs Middle Tennessee Predictions, Picks, Odds, How to Watch for College Football Saturday

Duke vs Middle Tennessee Predictions, Picks, Odds, How to Watch for College Football Saturday article feature image
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This article contains predictions for an old game.

Duke (3-0) plays Middle Tennessee State (1-2) on Saturday, September 21, at 4:00 p.m. ET.

The game can be seen live on ESPNU.

The Blue Devils have edged Northwestern, 26-20, and UConn, 26-21, in the last two games to remain undefeated.

On the other side of the field, Middle Tennessee has lost two straight, getting pummeled by Ole Miss, 52-3, before allowing Western Kentucky to score 49 points.

Duke is a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 52. The Blue Devils are also -610 on the moneyline.

Here's my Duke vs Middle Tennessee prediction for College Football Week 4 on Saturday, September 21.


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Duke vs Middle Tennessee Picks, Predictions

  • Duke vs Middle Tennessee Pick: Duke Team Total Over 33.5

My Duke vs Middle Tennessee best bet is on the Blue Devils team total over with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.


Duke vs Middle Tennessee Odds, Spread, Lines

Duke Logo
Saturday, Sept. 21
4 p.m. ET
ESPNU
Middle Tennessee Logo
Duke Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-14.5
-110
51
-110o / -110u
-600
Middle Tennessee Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+14.5
-110
51
-110o / -110u
+450
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.
bet365 Logo
  • Duke vs Middle Tennessee Point Spread: Duke -14.5 · Middle Tennessee +14.5
  • Duke vs Middle Tennessee Total: Over/Under 51
  • Duke vs Middle Tennessee Moneyline: Duke -600 · Middle Tennessee +450


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Duke Football vs Middle Tennessee Football Preview

Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview: Passing Attack Looks Good

Duke enters Saturday after a closer-than-expected 26-21 win over UConn last week.

The Blue Devils jumped out to a 17-0 lead, but the Huskies stormed back to take the lead on a pick-six in the third quarter. Duke ultimately won the third quarter 9-0 to close the game.

Quarterback Maalik Murphy looked good, going 28-for-43 passing with 267 yards and three touchdowns. Running back Star Thomas picked up 122 rushing yards on 22 attempts.

The Blue Devil defense played well in the second half, with all seven UConn possessions ending scoreless.


Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Betting Preview: Defense a Big Question Mark

Middle Tennessee State hosts Duke this week after losing to Western Kentucky, 49-21.

This “100 miles of hate” installment featured plenty of Hilltopper fireworks as the Blue Raider defense surrendered 631 yards. Western Kentucky backup quarterback Caden Veltkamp was 27-for-30 passing with 398 yards and five touchdowns in relief of injured T.J. Finley.

The MTSU defense had no answer, as Western Kentucky scored on almost every possession and never punted.

The bright spot on offense for MTSU was the play of quarterback Nicholas Vattiato, who was 23-for-31 passing with 456 yards and three touchdowns.

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Duke vs Middle Tennessee

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Duke and Middle Tennessee match up statistically:

Duke Offense vs. Middle Tennessee Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success133130
Line Yards121104
Pass Success39131
Havoc54117
Finishing Drives117120
Quality Drives111132
Middle Tennessee Offense vs. Duke Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success12927
Line Yards12213
Pass Success4823
Havoc1022
Finishing Drives12319
Quality Drives2728
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling11890
PFF Coverage26107
Special Teams SP+2178
Middle 899128
Seconds per Play24.3 (17)30.3 (120)
Rush Rate44% (114)43% (124)

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How To Make College Football Picks For My Duke vs Middle Tennessee Prediction

Duke could start 4-0. Looking ahead to the rest of the schedule, the Blue Devils need this win to secure a Bowl appearance.

That said, the Blue Devils have some big advantages on Saturday.

Murphy looks good, and Middle Tennessee ranks bottom-five nationally in EPA per Dropback, Pass Success Rate, and Standard Downs Success Rate allowed.

Any aerial success from Murphy will help open up the Blue Devil's rushing attack, which will plow into a fragile Middle Tennessee defensive line.

Conversely, Middle Tennessee could struggle against Duke’s aggressive, Havoc-based defense, which does well to limit explosive plays – the Blue Devils have allowed only five 20-plus-yard plays through three games.

The Blue Raiders rank among the bottom third of FBS teams in Havoc allowed and cannot run the football – they’re averaging 2.5 yards per carry with one 20-plus-yard rush. Expect quick Middle Tennessee possessions that set up short fields for Duke.

Duke is also running at a much quicker tempo than previously. The Blue Devils ran 82 plays against UConn.

If they run even close to that pace on Saturday, they’ll pile up yards and score in bunches against a Blue Raider defense that allows over 40 points and 540 yards per game.

Pick: Duke Team Total Over 33.5


How to Watch Duke vs Middle Tennessee Live: Streaming, Channel, Time

Location:Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, TN
Date:Saturday, Sept. 21
Kickoff Time:4 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming:ESPNU

Duke vs Middle Tennessee Betting Trends

  • Duke is 3-0 SU but 1-2 ATS.
  • Middle Tennessee is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS.

Duke vs Middle Tennessee Weather

Get the latest coverage on NCAAF Weather.

About the Author
Joshua Nunn is a contributor at Action Network who specializes in betting college football, and specifically games at the FCS level. He is a seasoned college football and college basketball bettor who previously worked in the financial services industry.

Follow Joshua Nunn @steponaduck1 on Twitter/X.

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