Duke (3-0) plays Middle Tennessee State (1-2) on Saturday, September 21, at 4:00 p.m. ET.
The game can be seen live on ESPNU.
The Blue Devils have edged Northwestern, 26-20, and UConn, 26-21, in the last two games to remain undefeated.
On the other side of the field, Middle Tennessee has lost two straight, getting pummeled by Ole Miss, 52-3, before allowing Western Kentucky to score 49 points.
Duke is a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 52. The Blue Devils are also -610 on the moneyline.
Here's my Duke vs Middle Tennessee prediction for Saturday.
Duke vs Middle Tennessee Prediction
- Duke vs Middle Tennessee Pick: Duke Team Total Over 33.5
My Duke vs Middle Tennessee best bet is on the Blue Devils team total over with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Duke vs Middle Tennessee Odds
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15 -108 | 51 -108o / -112u | -600 |
| Middle Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15 -112 | 51 -108o / -112u | +440 |
- Duke vs Middle Tennessee Point Spread: Duke +15 (-108) · Middle Tennessee -14.5 (-112)
- Duke vs Middle Tennessee Total: Over/Under 51
- Duke vs Middle Tennessee Moneyline: Duke -600 · Middle Tennessee +440
Duke vs Middle Tennessee Preview
Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview: Passing Attack Looks Good
Duke enters Saturday after a closer-than-expected 26-21 win over UConn last week.
The Blue Devils jumped out to a 17-0 lead, but the Huskies stormed back to take the lead on a pick-six in the third quarter. Duke ultimately won the third quarter 9-0 to close the game.
Quarterback Maalik Murphy looked good, going 28-for-43 passing with 267 yards and three touchdowns. Running back Star Thomas picked up 122 rushing yards on 22 attempts.
The Blue Devil defense played well in the second half, with all seven UConn possessions ending scoreless.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Betting Preview: Defense a Big Question Mark
Middle Tennessee State hosts Duke this week after losing to Western Kentucky, 49-21.
This “100 miles of hate” installment featured plenty of Hilltopper fireworks as the Blue Raider defense surrendered 631 yards. Western Kentucky backup quarterback Caden Veltkamp was 27-for-30 passing with 398 yards and five touchdowns in relief of injured T.J. Finley.
The MTSU defense had no answer, as Western Kentucky scored on almost every possession and never punted.
The bright spot on offense for MTSU was the play of quarterback Nicholas Vattiato, who was 23-for-31 passing with 456 yards and three touchdowns.
Duke vs Middle Tennessee
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Duke and Middle Tennessee match up statistically:
Duke Offense vs. Middle Tennessee Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 133 | 130 |  |
| Line Yards | 121 | 104 | |
| Pass Success | 39 | 131 | |
| Havoc | 54 | 117 | |
| Finishing Drives | 117 | 120 | |
| Quality Drives | 111 | 132 | |
Middle Tennessee Offense vs. Duke Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 129 | 27 | |
| Line Yards | 122 | 13 | |
| Pass Success | 48 | 23 | |
| Havoc | 102 | 2 | |
| Finishing Drives | 123 | 19 | |
| Quality Drives | 27 | 28 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 118 | 90 |
| PFF Coverage | 26 | 107 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 21 | 78 |
| Middle 8 | 99 | 128 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.3 (17) | 30.3 (120) |
| Rush Rate | 44% (114) | 43% (124) |
Duke vs Middle Tennessee Pick & Prediction
Duke could start 4-0. Looking ahead to the rest of the schedule, the Blue Devils need this win to secure a Bowl appearance.
That said, the Blue Devils have some big advantages on Saturday.
Murphy looks good, and Middle Tennessee ranks bottom-five nationally in EPA per Dropback, Pass Success Rate, and Standard Downs Success Rate allowed.
Any aerial success from Murphy will help open up the Blue Devil's rushing attack, which will plow into a fragile Middle Tennessee defensive line.
Conversely, Middle Tennessee could struggle against Duke’s aggressive, Havoc-based defense, which does well to limit explosive plays – the Blue Devils have allowed only five 20-plus-yard plays through three games.
The Blue Raiders rank among the bottom third of FBS teams in Havoc allowed and cannot run the football – they’re averaging 2.5 yards per carry with one 20-plus-yard rush. Expect quick Middle Tennessee possessions that set up short fields for Duke.
Duke is also running at a much quicker tempo than previously. The Blue Devils ran 82 plays against UConn.
If they run even close to that pace on Saturday, they’ll pile up yards and score in bunches against a Blue Raider defense that allows over 40 points and 540 yards per game.
Pick: Duke Team Total Over 33.5
How to Watch Duke vs Middle Tennessee Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, TN |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPNU |
Duke vs Middle Tennessee Betting Trends
- Duke is 3-0 SU but 1-2 ATS.
- Middle Tennessee is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS.
