We've got an intriguing interstate ACC clash on Saturday afternoon between the Duke Blue Devils (6-3) and NC State Wolfpack (5-4).
The Blue Devils led the Miami Hurricanes at halftime last weekend in head coach Manny Diaz's return to Coral Gables, but they collapsed late in the fourth quarter and did not even cover the number.
Meanwhile, the Wolfpack's season has been disappointing. They lost quarterback Grayson McCall due to injury. But backup quarterback C.J. Bailey has been an extraordinary surprise, coming off an excellent game last week against Stanford.
The Wolfpack needs a win to earn eligibility for Bowl season. They enter the matchup as 3-point home favorites on the spread with a 52.5-point over/under. The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, Nov. 9, and can be streamed live on the ACC Network.
Read on for our Duke vs NC State predictions and college football picks for this NCAAF Week 11 matchup.
Duke Blue Devils vs NC State Wolfpack Prediction, Picks
My Duke vs NC State best bet is on the Blue Devils to cover the 3-point spread at bet365 Sportsbook as road underdogs.
Duke vs NC State Odds, Spread, Lines
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -112 | 52 -112o / -108u | +124 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -108 | 52 -112o / -108u | -148 |
- Duke vs NC State Point Spread: NC State -3 · Duke +3
- Duke vs NC State Over/Under: 52 Points
- Duke vs NC State Moneyline: NC State ML -148, Duke ML +124
Duke Football vs NC State Football Preview
Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview: Don't Run The Ball and Play Defense
The Blue Devils nearly pulled off the biggest shocker of last weekend, but they ran out of gas in the fourth quarter.
They impressively moved the ball up and down the field, and despite turning the ball over early, they had a lead at Miami.
Coach Manny Diaz's team made a great effort, but the offensive side of the ball impressed me the most. The team's defense has been its clear strength throughout the season, so seeing the offense make strides was encouraging.
Despite a great effort, the Blue Devils offense still needs to improve on the ground. They rank near the bottom of the FBS in Rush Success Rate and Line Yards.
They only run the ball 47% of the time, but that is an area of the field where you can expose the Wolfpack defense. Quarterback Maalik Murphy has 17 TD passes and over 2000 passing yards thus far, and he's done a fine job through nine games.
Murphy's turnover proneness has created scary moments, but despite a couple of mistakes last week, he has started to progress a bit throughout the season. Still, the Blue Devils rank outside the top 100 nationally in Finishing and Quality Drives — they need to create more sustained down-to-down offense.
The good news is that the Wolfpack defense has been prone in that area, and they just allowed 28 points to a horrific Stanford defense. The Blue Devils are 48th in Havoc allowed, which is critical against a Wolfpack defense that creates a ton of it.
They've been outstanding defensively. Given how spectacular the Miami offense has been in 2024, I would take last week's results with a grain of salt.
Despite being lit up, they enter the matchup with sparkling results.
They rank inside the top 30 nationally in the following defensive metrics:
- Line Yards Allowed
- Pass Success Rate
- Havoc (3rd)
- Finishing and Quality Drives
Coach Diaz and defensive coordinator Jonathan Patke's unit has done an outstanding job in their 3-3-5 scheme. The defensive line is ferocious, and their secondary has held up their end of the bargain.
Their defense alone is why they have six wins, and it is safe to say many of us underestimated the impact of the Diaz and Patke hires once Mike Elko departed for Texas A&M and gutted the former staff. The Wolfpack cannot run the ball on offense, setting up a terrific day for these pass rushers to run free and immediately enter the backfield.
NC State Wolfpack Betting Preview: Wolfpack Worries
The Wolfpack have had a rollercoaster of a season, and once McCall was declared out for the year, all hope was lost in Raleigh. However, the surge of backup quarterback CJ Bailey has rejuvenated life in the team, and now they are close to earning a birth into Bowl Season.
It's no surprise that the Wolfpack team's strength lies on the defensive side of the ball. Defensive coordinator Tony Gibson's 3-3-5 scheme continues to torment opposing offenses despite the team's lack of talent in years past.
The Wolfpack rank 16th nationally in Havoc and in the top 50 in both Rush Success Rate and Pass Success Rate allowed. They are also in the top 40 in Pro Football Focus's Tackling and Coverage grades.
The Blue Devils offense showed signs of life last week, but the defense could be challenged here. The reason is that they looked vulnerable against a Stanford offense the previous week.
Regardless, the Blue Devils are one-dimensional on offense, so their secondary needs to hold up their end of the bargain. My questions are regarding the Wolfpack offense despite their performance last weekend.
Bailey has been great at quarterback since taking over for McCall. He's completed over 70% of his passes and has 11 touchdown passes with only two interceptions.
The Wolfpack rank 11th nationally in Pass Success Rate, but they draw a tough matchup against an elite Blue Devils defense. It'll be a huge test for Bailey, especially since the Wolfpack cannot run the ball.
If the Wolfpack were more balanced on offense, I would have more reason to believe they can cover the number at home. Also, they rank 130th in Havoc Allowed, which sets up a nightmare matchup against one of the nation's best pass-rushing teams.
Given the matchup, I am concerned about the Wolfpack here, although their defense can hold up their end of the bargain.
Duke vs NC State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Duke and NC State match up statistically:
Duke Offense vs. NC State Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 128 | 51 | |
| Line Yards | 128 | 81 | |
| Pass Success | 70 | 48 | |
| Havoc | 48 | 16 | |
| Finishing Drives | 100 | 83 | |
| Quality Drives | 132 | 104 | |
NC State Offense vs. Duke Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 103 | 57 | |
| Line Yards | 80 | 29 | |
| Pass Success | 11 | 11 |  |
| Havoc | 130 | 3 | |
| Finishing Drives | 60 | 22 | |
| Quality Drives | 41 | 27 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 93 | 20 |
| PFF Coverage | 7 | 38 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 100 | 57 |
| Middle 8 | 72 | 115 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.8 (24) | 30.8 (128) |
| Rush Rate | 47% (105) | 51% (91) |
How to Bet My Duke vs NC State Pick
The Blue Devils fourth-quarter performance last week will steer many people away from them this week, and that is why we are seeing the number tick up to +3.
But I love the Blue Devils here, and I will sell the Wolfpack offense high after last week.
The Blue Devils' advantage in the defensive trench is massive, and they will give CJ Bailey issues all afternoon long. Their secondary has been outstanding, which will combat the Wolfpack's excellent passing attack.
There are too many questions about the Wolfpack offensive line. Although I have been impressed with Bailey's play, their one-dimensional offensive approach will burn them. They need the bodies up front to slow down the Blue Devils pass rush, and it is setting up to be a dream matchup for the defense.
Forget the 3.5 points — the Blue Devils are winning the game outright.
Pick: Duke +3 (Play to PK)
Duke vs NC State Channel, Start Time, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC |
| Date: | Friday, Nov. 8 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ACC Network |
Duke vs NC State will be played at Carter-Finley Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 9, at 3:30 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ACC Network.
Duke vs NC State Betting Trends
- 91% of bets and 93% of the money are on NC State to cover the spread
- 89% of bets and 97% of the money on the moneyline are on NC State to win outright
- 85% of bets and 85% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Duke vs NC State Weather
