It's Friday Night Lights time! The Duke Blue Devils look to build off their Week 1 victory as they hit the road to take on the Northwestern Wildcats.
The Cats are coming off a home victory over Miami (OH) and have a chance of starting the season 2-0. Both teams are going through a lot of change on both sides of the ball, so it'll be interesting to see how the game's dynamic plays out.
Let's dive into my Duke vs Northwestern prediction and game preview for 9/6.
Duke vs Northwestern Prediction
- Duke-Northwestern Pick: Under 37
Oddsmakers currently have Northwestern as a -2.5 favorite, and the total has sunk quickly to 37. Let's dive deeper into Friday night's matchup between the Blue Devils and Wildcats.
Duke vs Northwestern Odds
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 36.5 -115o / -105u | +100 |
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 36.5 -115o / -105u | -120 |
- Point Spread: Duke Blue Devils +2 (-110) · Northwestern Wildcats -2 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 37.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Moneyline: Duke +110 · Northwestern -130
Duke vs Northwestern Preview
Duke Blue Devils Preview
There was a moment last week in the Blue Devils' matchup against Elon where they reached the end zone in the final minutes of the first half. It was not the prettiest showing for Manny Diaz's first game as head coach, but Duke ultimately took care of business in the second half.
Duke has a lot of changes within their program, thanks to former head coach Mike Elko packing his bags for College Station. The Blue Devils are among the nation's worst teams in returning production, ranking 115th.
It is the Maalik Murphy show at quarterback, as the former Texas Longhorn transferred to Duke in the offseason. Murphy has a ton of upside as a runner and passer, but I wonder if the Blue Devils have the tools for him to thrive.
Last week, Duke ran for just 59 yards on the ground, which could be a better sign heading into a matchup with the Wildcats. The Blue Devils have to win the game through the air, but they're built to be an Air Raid offense.
Duke posted a top-50 Defensive EPA per Play Allowed last season, which should limit the explosiveness of this Wildcats offense.
Defensively, the Blue Devils should be able to contain Mike Wright's dual-threat ability. Although Elon is an FCS school, I liked what I saw from the defense last week.
Diaz is a defensive-minded coach, so it's safe to say the defense won't drop off much from a year ago under Elko. I expect the defense to do its part against a Wildcats offense that scrapped together just 13 points against a MAC foe squad last week.
Northwestern Wildcats Preview
We faded the Wildcats last week, and unfortunately, Miami (OH) couldn't get into the end zone. The Cats defense showed up in a big way, and it's clear already that it will be their most robust unit as a team.
Before even diving into the matchup, I was stunned to see that our Action Network team projects the Wildcats as nearly 11-point favorites over the Blue Devils.
While it would make sense to jump all over the Wildcats as short favorites under a field goal, but there's a reason I won't ride with the projections.
First, quarterback Mike Wright was the only form of offense for the Cats last week, as he was the team's leading passer and rusher. I expect the Blue Devils to contain Wright on the ground, which puts pressure on Northwestern's backfield.
Duke was excellent against the run last year, and Diaz's 4-2-5 hybrid defense is tough to crack. He's consistent about having the "best 11 guys on the field" at all times.
Considering the total has dropped significantly since opening, I expect the Cats offense to be a minor factor. Cam Porter averaged 4.8 YPC last week, but now he has a much taller task against a solid Duke defensive front.
The Wildcats analytically should be a bet, but I will pass based on the question marks surrounding Wright against a solid defensive-minded coach.
Duke vs Northwestern Prediction
We're getting a lower number than what the market opened, but I love the under here.
Both of these offenses have many issues, and these defenses do an excellent job of preventing explosive plays.
We still need more data on both teams, and I don't want to back the Blue Devils after losing so much talent. Typically, I lean on backing the underdog with such a low total, but not here.
Both of these teams will try to run the football, which will correlate to a lot of clock running. It has all the makings for an ugly Friday night game, and with the public backing the over but the total continuing to drop, it makes me like the under even more.
Pick: Under 37 (Play to 36)
How to Watch Duke vs Northwestern
| Location: | Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium, Evanston, IL |
| Date: | Friday, Sept. 6 |
| Kickoff Time: | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
Duke-Northwestern Betting Trends
The market is showing some interesting trends when it comes to betting the total of this game.
While 60% of bets are coming in for the over as of Thursday evening, the 40% of bets targeting the under account for a whopping 73% of the money. As stated above, I'm locking in under 37 and would bet this to 36.
Duke-NW Weather
It's forecasted to be around 61 degrees at kickoff with partly cloudy conditions and northern winds hovering around the 14.5 mph mark.
