Bowl mania rolls on Thursday afternoon for the Gator Bowl between the Duke Blue Devils (9-3, 5-3 ACC) and Ole Miss Rebels (9-3, 5-3 SEC). Kickoff is set for 8:45 p.m. ET on ESPN.
On paper, the matchup seems like a colossal talent mismatch, but like many other bowl games, much player news has impacted the handicap.
The Blue Devils are massive 17.5-point underdogs, while the over/under sits at 51.5.
Let's dive into my Duke vs. Ole Miss predictions and college football picks for the 2024 Gator Bowl on Thursday, Jan. 2.
Duke Blue Devils vs. Ole Miss Rebels Prediction, Picks
- Duke vs. Ole Miss Pick: Duke Team Total Under 16.5
My Ole Miss vs. Duke best bet is on the Blue Devils to go under their team total, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Duke vs. Ole Miss Odds, Line, Spread
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
- Duke vs. Ole Miss Spread: Duke +17 · Ole Miss -17
- Duke vs. Ole Miss Over/Under: 50.5
- Duke vs. Ole Miss Moneyline: Duke ML +550 · Ole Miss ML -800
Duke vs. Ole Miss Gator Bowl Betting Preview
Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview: Without Murphy at QB
HC Manny Diaz announced that he does not expect opt-outs for the matchup, but a couple of key transfers and injuries are worth mentioning. As always, check out Stuckey's opt-out and transfer portal tracker for the latest news.
Duke Transfer Portal
- Starting RB Star Thomas
- Backup QB Grayson Loftis
Duke Opt-Outs
- Starting QB Maalik Murphy (committed to Auburn).
Duke Injuries
Starting CB Kimari Robinson and RB Peyton Jones didn’t play in the finale.
Besides Murphy committing to Auburn, everybody else should be set to start for the Blue Devils. There's no way of knowing this, but Diaz has no reason to lie to the media for a bowl game.
Backup quarterback Henry Belin IV, who completed one pass on one attempt during the regular season, is expected to start in place of Murphy.
The Blue Devils offense was highly shaky throughout the regular season, and now they draw a tough assignment against the Rebels.
Ole Miss Rebels Betting Preview: Throwing Darts
There's a ton of player news for the Rebels, which shouldn't come as a shock, given they were one win away from earning a berth into the College Football Playoff. Here's all of the notable player news:
Ole Miss Transfer Portal
- Starting CB Jadon Canady
- Starting RT Micah Pettus (committed to FSU)
- S Louis Moore (297 snaps; committed to Indiana)
- Third-string QB Walker Howard (committed to Louisiana)
- RT Preston Cushman *(64 snaps)
Ole Miss Opt-Outs
- LB Chris Paul Jr.
Ole Miss Potential Opt-Outs
- WR Juice Wells
- WR Tre Harris (also dealing with injury)
Ole Miss Injuries
S Yam Banks and S Louis Moore didn’t play in the finale. RB Henry Parrish and WR Tre Harris finished the year injured.
The biggest news is that quarterback Jaxson Dart will play and get the start. His presence alone on offense will be massive for the Rebels, who should be able to move the ball against a stingy Blue Devils defense.
Ole Miss vs. Duke Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ole Miss and Duke match up statistically:
Duke Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 130 | 6 | |
| Line Yards | 132 | 7 | |
| Pass Success | 68 | 14 | |
| Havoc | 78 | 1 | |
| Finishing Drives | 92 | 10 | |
| Quality Drives | 130 | 5 | |
Ole Miss Offense vs. Duke Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 43 | 54 | |
| Line Yards | 51 | 30 | |
| Pass Success | 4 | 10 | |
| Havoc | 50 | 3 | |
| Finishing Drives | 59 | 18 | |
| Quality Drives | 7 | 28 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 65 | 5 |
| PFF Coverage | 7 | 26 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 66 | 2 |
| Middle 8 | 65 | 30 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.1 (33) | 23.5 (11) |
| Rush Rate | 46% (109) | 54% (68) |
How to Bet My Duke vs. Ole Miss Pick
It's tough to gauge where the Rebels are mentally, but given head coach Lane Kiffin's recent tweets and conversations with the media, they probably want to put on a show here.
It appears to be a meaningless bowl game since they were so close to being in the mix for a National Championship, but Kiffin may want to stomp the Blue Devils to deliver a great performance.
With that said, I believe the Blue Devils will also care here. It's always difficult to handicap a bowl matchup based on motivation, but I trust both defenses will show up.
I don't love laying the points with the Rebels since it's such an unfathomable amount of points.
I could also see a world where the Rebels blow out the Blue Devils early but then Kiffin decides to preserve the health of his players heading into the offseason. I don't think the Duke offense will be able to move the ball without Murphy — and it was already struggling in that area.
With that said, the best bet to make is the Duke team total under. The Blue Devils offense ranked below the 10th percentile in the following offensive metrics:
- EPA/Play
- Success Rate
- Rush and Pass Explosiveness
- Late Down Success Rate
- Stuff Rate Allowed
They also rank in the 27th percentile in Havoc allowed, so there's a ton of reason to believe the Blue Devils will struggle to move the ball.
Given that all of these metrics were with Murphy under center, we have no reason to believe Belin can be a difference-maker.
Not only are the offensive metrics bad, but they're facing an underrated Rebels defense. The Rebels arguably had a top-10 defensive unit in the country and ranked inside the top 15 in many defensive metrics.
I don’t expect Duke's offensive line to hold up, which could lead to many quick possessions due to turnovers. This has a whomping written all over it, and the Blue Devils offense is in for a long afternoon.
Pick: Duke Team Total Under 16.5
Duke vs. Ole Miss Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL |
| Date: | Thursday, Jan. 2 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Duke takes on Ole Miss in the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville on Thursday, Jan. 2 at 8:05 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Duke vs. Ole Miss Betting Trends
Duke vs. Ole Miss Weather
