Bowl mania rolls on with the Military Bowl between the East Carolina Pirates (7-5, 5-3 AAC) and NC State Wolfpack (6-6, 3-5 ACC).
East Carolina ended the regular season with a 24-20 loss to a Navy team that has closed the season strong. NC State, meanwhile, ended the season on a high note with a 35-30 victory over in-state rival North Carolina.
Both rosters are uncertain heading into the game, making the handicap quite uncertain.
The Pirates are 7-point underdogs on the spread with a 58.5-point over/under.
Read on for my East Carolina vs. NC State predictions and college football picks for the Military Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 28.
East Carolina vs NC State Prediction, Best Bets
- East Carolina vs. NC State Pick: East Carolina +7
My NC State vs. ECU best bet is on the Pirates to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
East Carolina vs. NC State Odds, Spread
| East Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +228 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -285 |
- East Carolina vs. NC State Spread: NC State -7, East Carolina +7
- East Carolina vs. NC State Over/Under: 60.5 Total Points
- East Carolina vs. NC State Moneyline: NC State ML -285, East Carolina ML +228
East Carolina Pirates vs. NC State Wolfpack Preview
East Carolina Pirates Betting Preview
The biggest non-player news for the Pirates heading into the matchup is that interim head coach Blake Harrell — who took over midseason for Mike Houston — has been named the full-time coach.
That's important to note because we could see a more motivated effort from the Pirates, especially given they trended up as the season progressed.
The East Carolina offense did not look like it did in the latter part of this season. Under Houston, the Pirates looked like a lifeless football team that had quit.
However, they played much better down the stretch, and I am confident they can turn their momentum into a bowl victory.
Although the Pirates don't rank highly in most offensive metrics, they can throw the ball. That could work against NC State, which struggles to defend the pass and will be without its defensive coordinator in the bowl game.
I think the Pirates offense will be able to sustain more success than the public perceives.
Quarterback Katin Houser was much more efficient than backup Jake Garcia, and the offense was much more explosive with him under center. I like the Pirates' chances of throwing the ball down the field and creating scoring opportunities.
NC State is also dealing with many injuries in the secondary, which suggests that the Pirates will be much more pass-heavy than we think.
The Pirates' front seven is elite against the run, ranking in the top 10 nationally in Rush Success Rate and Line Yards allowed. They should control the line of scrimmage against an NC State front that could be missing a few offensive linemen.
NC State Wolfpack Betting Preview
Defensive coordinator Tony Gibson left the program to become Marshall's head coach, an excellent move for the Thundering Herd.
So, Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay will call the defensive plays for the Wolfpack in the bowl.
Why is that important? If you're not entirely familiar with Gibson's work as a coordinator, he is one of the best in the sport. We could see a trickle effect in the bowl game for an NC State defense that has been so successful over the years.
Aside from Gibson's departure, I have many questions about the Wolfpack and their ability to cover the number.
I've been down on the 'Pack all season.
Yes, they lost starting quarterback Grayson McCall, but their offense struggled to move the ball with him.
Sure, they ranked in the top 50 nationally in Finishing Drives, Pass Success Rate and Line Yards. But they also ranked 129th in Havoc allowed, and that's a massive problem against East Carolina's game-wrecking front seven. I'm uncertain if NC State can run or pass block on Saturday, especially if they're missing a few guys on the offensive line.
NC State is a solid defensive team, but I'm worried about its performance without Gibson on the sidelines. Aughtry-Lindsay is probably familiar with Gibson‘s scheme, but it's a critical coaching change that I do not think many people are considering.
The Wolfpack are outstanding against the run, but the Pirates can't run the ball, anyway.
NC State vs. East Carolina Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how NC State and East Carolina match up statistically:
East Carolina Offense vs. NC State Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 74 | 21 | |
| Line Yards | 78 | 65 | |
| Pass Success | 46 | 59 | |
| Havoc | 82 | 12 | |
| Finishing Drives | 90 | 60 | |
| Quality Drives | 73 | 96 | |
NC State Offense vs. East Carolina Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 76 | 9 | |
| Line Yards | 48 | 6 | |
| Pass Success | 30 | 101 | |
| Havoc | 129 | 67 | |
| Finishing Drives | 51 | 85 | |
| Quality Drives | 59 | 46 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 98 | 60 |
| PFF Coverage | 57 | 64 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 54 | 53 |
| Middle 8 | 44 | 102 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.9 (3) | 30.3 (126) |
| Rush Rate | 52% (72) | 51% (89) |
How to Bet My East Carolina vs. NC State Picks
I know many public bettors and college football experts seem to be bullish about the Pirates' offense against the Wolfpack defense here.
Still, I think Hauser is a significant game-changer at the quarterback position, which they did not have with Garcia.
Gibson is a significant loss to the Wolfpack defense, and I could envision a lack of motivation here from the Wolfpack. Besides, the Pirates have the motivational edge here, especially with Harell being promoted from interim to full-time head coach.
I don’t see any reason to believe why the Wolfpack cares about this game besides the fact that this would be considered an in-state rival. I think you’re crazy if you lay the points here with the Wolfpack, so I'll back the Pirates.
Pick: East Carolina +7
East Carolina vs. NC State Streaming, Channel, Start Time, How To Watch
| Location: | Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD |
| Date: | Saturday, Dec. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 5:45 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
East Carolina vs NC State will be played at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Dec. 28 at 5:45 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN.
East Carolina vs. NC State Betting Trends to Know
East Carolina vs. NC State Weather Forecast
