It's a Thursday Night edition of AAC football, as the East Carolina Pirates (5-4, 3-2 AAC) travel to Oklahoma, to take on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-6, 1-4). Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
ECU's season has been bizarre, as it suddenly seems rejuvenated after firing former head coach Mike Houston. It's a long shot, but the Pirates have the potential to win the AAC Championship if a few things go their way.
Meanwhile, it's been another disappointing season in Tulsa, as the Golden Hurricane are 3-6 on the year and need to win out to earn a berth into bowl season.
Oddsmakers have the Pirates as -14.5 favorites with the total sitting at 62.5.
Let's dive into my East Carolina vs. Tulsa predictions and college football picks for Thursday, Nov. 14.
East Carolina Pirates vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane Prediction
- East Carolina vs Tulsa Pick: Under 62.5
My Tulsa vs. ECU best bet is on both teams to stay under the total, with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
East Carolina vs. Tulsa Odds, Betting Lines, Spread
| East Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -110 | 63.5 -108o / -112u | -800 |
| Tulsa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -110 | 63.5 -108o / -112u | +550 |
- East Carolina vs Tulsa Spread: East Carolina -16.5 · Tulsa +16.5
- East Carolina vs Tulsa Over/Under: 63.5 Total Points
- East Carolina vs Tulsa Moneyline: East Carolina ML -800 · Tulsa ML +550
East Carolina vs. Tulsa NCAAF Week 12 Preview
East Carolina Pirates Betting Preview
The Pirates offense has looked spectacular over the last couple of weeks, and the Greenville faithful are wondering what type of ceiling they could have had if a coaching change had been made sooner.
They're coming off a dominant home victory over FAU in which they scored 49 points.
The week prior, ECU put up 56 points, although it was against a lousy Temple team. But now it draws another favorable matchup against Tulsa, which is music to quarterback Katin Houser's ears.
Houser is one of the main reasons the offense suddenly clicks, as he's completed 61% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and one interception. The offense was a complete corpse under Jake Garcia, who had thrown 12 picks before finally getting benched for Houser.
The Pirates have yet to establish a consistent running game; they rank 93rd in Rushing Success Rate. Their offensive line has not done them any favors, ranking outside the top 90 in Line Yards and Havoc Allowed.
As good as the offense has been under Houser, some regression is looming. Despite sitting 43rd in Pass Success Rate, their Finishing Drives and Quality Drives statistics indicate that many recent successes could be slightly inflated.
The Pirates are 109th in strength of schedule, so the five wins could be better. I realize it's an entirely different offense under Houser, but I'm still deciding whether to be ready to hop aboard the Pirate ship.
However, the defensive side of the ball has been excellent. East Carolina ranks in the top 15 in Rush Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards.
It's 50th in Havoc and 39th in PFF Coverage. Although it's been gashed through the air at times, its coverage numbers suggest that good fortune is coming in that department.
Despite losing one of their cornerbacks, I believe this team can contain Tulsa's pass-heavy approach.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane Betting Preview
Tulsa has had a disaster of a season, and now it has to come off its bye week to take on a red-hot Pirates offense. Before the bye, Trent Dilfer's UAB Blazers took the Hurricane to the woodshed, as the defense allowed 59 points.
The lone bright side of Tulsa's recent performance has been quarterback Cooper Legas's performance as the starter. Legas replaced Kirk Francis in the wild game against UTSA and threw 5 touchdown passes in that contest.
Legas has eight scores and one pick on the year, and he may have another heavy workload on Thursday night.
Running back Anthony Watkins is still questionable about returning for Tulsa, but at least he had another week to heal. There's a chance Watkins plays, which will at least force the Pirates defense to defer their attention from Legas.
The offense is 125th in Passing Success Rate, but those are combined metrics with Francis and Legas under center. In the last two games, they've been much better through the air and stronger in passing-down situations.
The problem for the matchup is that the Golden Hurricane rank 90th in Havoc Allowed, which poses a problem going up against a Pirates defense that creates a ton of it.
Defensively, this is a nightmare matchup for the Hurricane. ECU runs a balanced offense, but Tulsa is 134th in Pass Success Rate Allowed.
It's been stout in the defensive trench against the run, but it could be a long night for the defense if the Pirates decide to go full Air Raid. Given that the Pirates' offensive line is not the best, they should be able to create pressure consistently throughout the matchup.
East Carolina vs. Tulsa Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how East Carolina and Tulsa match up statistically:
East Carolina Offense vs. Tulsa Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 93 | 13 | |
| Line Yards | 90 | 55 | |
| Pass Success | 43 | 134 | |
| Havoc | 106 | 83 | |
| Finishing Drives | 97 | 131 | |
| Quality Drives | 87 | 101 | |
Tulsa Offense vs. East Carolina Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 113 | 14 | |
| Line Yards | 46 | 9 | |
| Pass Success | 125 | 91 | |
| Havoc | 90 | 50 | |
| Finishing Drives | 70 | 107 | |
| Quality Drives | 113 | 49 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 73 | 106 |
| PFF Coverage | 38 | 133 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 75 | 91 |
| Middle 8 | 26 | 122 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.9 (2) | 24.7 (20) |
| Rush Rate | 50% (88) | 52% (79) |
East Carolina vs. Tulsa Picks and Best Bet
It's terrifying, but I'm going to take an under here.
I'm fully aware that the Tulsa secondary allows a ton of explosive passes, and the Pirates offense has been far more efficient with Houser under center.
However, I think Tulsa's defensive trench will significantly impact the matchup. They Golden Hurricane are elite at limiting rush explosives and should be able to create consistent pressure against a questionable offensive line for ECU.
Also, I think everyone needs to pump the breaks on the Pirates. They've obliterated Temple and FAU in consecutive weeks, and I'm not sure either offense knows how to complete a forward pass.
The Tulsa offense has been better under Legas, but the Pirates are an excellent defensive unit against the run and an elite team in Stuff Rate. This will make them one-dimensional, and I don't think the Pirates' secondary will be challenged as much as you may think due to the amount of pressure and Havoc they cause.
The number has gotten far too high, and I like the matchup for both defensive lines.
Pick: Under 62.5 (Play to 61)
East Carolina vs. Tulsa Channel, How to Watch, Start Time, Location
| Location: | H. A. Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, OK |
| Date: | Thursday, Nov. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
East Carolina takes on Tulsa in an AAC clash at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN on Thursday, Nov. 14.
East Carolina vs. Tulsa Betting Trends
- 80% of bets and 84% of the money are on East Carolina to cover the spread
- 94% of bets and 36% of the money on the moneyline are on East Carolina to win outright
- 57% of bets and 61% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
East Carolina vs. Tulsa Weather
