Eastern Michigan vs. Toledo Odds
| Eastern Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -105 | 54 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -115 | 54 -110o / -110u | -365 |
The first MACtion week of 2021 pairs two teams sitting at 2-2 in the MAC West.
Gliding past expectations has been a part of every Eastern Michigan campaign under head coach Chris Creighton, as the Eagles were picked fifth in the preseason. The coach enters his seventh season, having been to three bowls and taking the program back to winning records after a 20-year hiatus.
Eastern Michigan is just a win away from qualifying for bowl season, but a previous loss to Northern Illinois has put the conference title out of range.
Toledo was expected to be the powerhouse of the MAC entering the season. A three-point loss to Notre Dame had the Rockets on track to dominate in conference play, but consecutive losses to Central Michigan and Northern Illinois have all but mathematically eliminated Toledo from playing in the conference championship game.
The Rockets are also just a game shy of qualifying for a bowl, making this game important to both programs' postseason plans.
Eastern Michigan Eagles
The Eagles are coming off an undressing of Bowling Green in a 31-point victory before a bye week last Saturday.
Eastern Michigan scored zero points in the first quarter before an explosive 24-point second quarter. The offensive attack was focused through the air, as quarterback Ben Bryant led an effort that hit 10 passes over 15 yards, while the ground attack had no explosive plays.
Making it look easy for the @EMUFB Touchdown! #ETOUGH | #MACtionpic.twitter.com/BZ3cHRQB6D
— #MACtion (@MACSports) October 23, 2021
The Cincinnati transfer has been the key to the rising advanced statistics for Eastern Michigan. The Eagles' Passing Success Rate rank of 29th and Finishing Drives mark in the top 10 indicate that any opponent soft in coverage can get behind in a hurry.
While the passing game is the heartbeat of the offense, the defense has multiple holes that can be exposed.
Defensive coordinator Neal Neathery runs exclusively in the 4-2-5 scheme with a low 20% blitz rate. The Eagles have not been successful against the pass or rush with a rank outside the top 100 in Success Rate.
Eastern Michigan also owns one of the worst defensive units in Havoc, ranking outside the top 100 in tackles for loss.
While opposing offenses have had success in every down and distance, the Eagles pass rush has been effective, grading out 19th via PFF.
Toledo Rockets
Toledo head coach Jason Candle is five points away from having an undefeated record in conference play.
A late 20-19 lead in the fourth quarter evaporated against Northern Illinois with three minutes left to play. Toledo turnovers and Rocky Lombardi's explosiveness put the Huskies in position for a field goal and the lead in the MAC West.
Finishing Drives failed the Rockets against Central Michigan, as they elected to kick a field goal on five separate drives that crossed the 40-yard line.
Toledo has been led by its defense the entire season, with top-10 ranks in tackling and Finishing Drives. The rush defense is one of the best in the nation, limiting opposing offenses to Success Rates lower than the national average in passing and standard downs splits.
The Rockets have also held opponents in explosive and two-plus first down drives.
🧨 @MaxenHook 𝗘𝗫𝗣𝗟𝗢𝗗𝗘𝗦 up the middle and drops the quarterback in this week's Wayne Lumber "Bringing the Lumber" hit of the game!! 😲 pic.twitter.com/pQMxbmNHc5
— Toledo Athletics (@ToledoRockets) October 20, 2021
The struggles for Toledo have come on the offensive side, primarily in pass protection for freshman quarterback Dequan Finn.
The Rockets have a rush rate of 55%, but in passing plays, the young quarterback is behind an offensive line that ranks bottom-10 in pass blocking. This has led to an impotent passing attack that is outside the top 100 in Success Rate.
The issues persist in the run game, as Toledo is stuffed 10% more than the national average in rushing attempts.
The one redeeming quality of the offense is the ability to hit the explosive play, as Toledo ranks above the national average in explosive drives. It sits top-10 in rush and pass expected points.
Eastern Michigan vs. Toledo Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Eastern Michigan and Toledo match up statistically:
Eastern Michigan Offense vs. Toledo Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 91 | 10 | |
| Line Yards | 82 | 36 | |
| Pass Success | 29 | 47 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 43 | 19 | |
| Big Play | 63 | 24 | |
| Havoc | 71 | 20 | |
| Finishing Drives | 9 | 8 |  |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Toledo Offense vs. Eastern Michigan Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 60 | 126 | |
| Line Yards | 73 | 124 | |
| Pass Success | 109 | 108 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 120 | 16 | |
| Big Play | 87 | 91 | |
| Havoc | 93 | 118 | |
| Finishing Drives | 100 | 69 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 42 | 2 |
| Coverage | 100 | 12 |
| Middle 8 | 20 | 42 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 25 | 96 |
| Plays per Minute | 71 | 80 |
| Rush Rate | 52.9% (80) | 55.7% (62) |
Eastern Michigan vs. Toledo Betting Pick
The opening market was aligned with the Action Network projections of Toledo -9 and a total of 53.
Since Bryant took over starting quarterback duties for Eastern Michigan in the UMass game, the Eagles have had a passing attack capable of scoring. The difference is when Bryant is pressured, as he has nine big-time throws and six turnover-worthy plays. In games with pressure, Bryant had multiple turnover-worthy plays against Ball State, Miami (OH) and Northern Illinois.
Toledo has a top-20 defense in pass rush and coverage, indicating this could be a long night for the Eastern Michigan quarterback. As great as the Eagles have been at putting points on the board in scoring opportunities, the Toledo defense has been better with a rank of eighth in Finishing Drives.
The Toledo offense cannot be counted on to score consistently because of inconsistent play on the offensive line. The Eagles do not have many outstanding attributes on defense, but a top-20 rank in rushing the passer will flush Finn out of the pocket and put him on the run.
The Rockets struggles in Success Rate from any down and distance, ranking in the bottom 11 in standard and passing downs. Toledo puts points on the board with explosive plays, an area the Eagles defense excels in preventing.
The biggest key numbers in this range include 52, 51 and 55. Shop for the best number on an under, as Eastern Michigan escapes pressure and Toledo seeks explosive plays.
