Toledo vs Eastern Michigan Odds
| Toledo Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+19.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +750 |
| Eastern Michigan Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-19.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -1200 |
Wednesday night brings us some MACtion in Ohio, where the Toledo Rockets welcome the Eastern Michigan Eagles for a Week 11 matchup.
Both of these teams are very familiar with each other as they sit on the MAC West side of the conference and square off each year.
Eastern Michigan enters this one looking to get back on track after dropping its last two games — at Northern Illinois and at home against Western Michigan.
Toledo looks to keep its momentum rolling after winning eight straight following a close Week 1 loss at Illinois.
Can the Rockets defend home turf and keep their stride, or do the Eagles pose a threat this week?
Toledo Rockets
The Rockets are on an absolute roll after a shaky start at Illinois this season. They've rattled off eight straight wins, including a few that starting quarterback Dequan Finn missed.
Toledo looks to keep it rolling following its hot start and maintain its reign at the top of the MAC after winning the conference championship a year ago.
The Rockets offense has been high-powered all season long with Finn returning under center. The Rockets average 34 points per game, lighting up the scoreboard with ease.
They rank 17th in Offensive Success Rate, and a lot of that can be credited to Finn’s ability to make plays through the air and on the ground. Finn has thrown for 1,601 yards on the season and added 489 yards on the ground.
This is not to overshadow running back Peny Boone, who has averaged 7.3 yards per carry on 136 carries. The Rockets can really run the ball and should be able to exploit a weak Eastern Michigan run defense in this one.
However, Toledo has some weaknesses on defense that can open the door a bit for Eastern Michigan. The Rockets allow 19.3 points per game and are stout against the pass (13th). They'll eat up whatever pass attack Eastern Michigan throws at them.
The matchup I'm more interested in comes on the ground, as Toledo ranks 81st against the run.
There could be some opportunities for a weak Eagles offense to find some success, so Toledo will need to be ready against the run here.
Eastern Michigan Eagles
The Eagles are fighting to reach bowl eligibility, sitting at 4-5 on the year thus far. They're 2-3 in their last five against Toledo, so headcoach Chris Creighton knows what he has ahead of him when traveling to the Glass Bowl.
This game gives Eastern Michigan an opportunity to pick up one of the two wins it needs in its final three games to make the postseason.
Offensively, this Eastern Michigan team has flat-out struggled this season, averaging only 18.5 points per game.
Quarterback Austin Smith is the man in charge of this offense, and he has thrown for only 1,334 yards this season while adding 96 yards on the ground through nine games.
The Eagles rank 124th in Passing Success Rate and even worse at 130th in passing explosiveness.
The run game has not been much better with running back Samson Evans averaging 4.2 yards per carry on the year. Evans has been solid, but the Eagles favor the pass over the run, as they've played from behind so often this year.
The ground attack ranks 106th in Success Rate, so the Eagles need to find success in that area to hang around in this one.
The Eagles defense has been something of a bright spot this year, specifically when it comes to defending the pass. Their pass defense ranks 10th in the country, and they eat up pass-heavy teams defensively.
However, the weak area of the pass defense comes from allowing the big play, as they rank 93rd in defensive pass explosiveness.
While worse overall, EMU's run defense limits the big plays and ranks 30th in explosiveness. The Eagles will need to defend the run well this week in order to keep this one close.
Toledo vs Eastern Michigan
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Eastern Michigan and Toledo match up statistically:
Eastern Michigan Offense vs Toledo Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 106 | 81 | |
| Line Yards | 84 | 86 |  |
| Pass Success | 124 | 14 | |
| Havoc | 122 | 62 | |
| Finishing Drives | 93 | 14 | |
| Quality Drives | 127 | 21 | |
Toledo Offense vs Eastern Michigan Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 23 | 116 | |
| Line Yards | 12 | 126 | |
| Pass Success | 14 | 30 | |
| Havoc | 25 | 83 | |
| Finishing Drives | 13 | 29 | |
| Quality Drives | 59 | 47 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 15 | 14 |
| PFF Coverage | 49 | 6 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 80 | 97 |
| Middle 8 | 96 | 9 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.5 (113) | 25.6 (43) |
| Rush Rate | 53.6% (82) | 61.6% (10) |
Toledo vs Eastern Michigan
Betting Pick & Prediction
While Toledo holds a big edge on the ground against a weak Eastern Michigan run defense, I think the history of this matchup matters.
Eastern Michigan has played one-score games against Toledo in four of their last five matchups. I think the Eagles can find enough success on the ground to hang around in what should be a low-scoring ground-and-pound game for both teams.
Give me EMU at +19.
Pick: Eastern Michigan +19
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