Sometimes sports can be all about momentum. The vibes couldn’t be any more different between the FAU Owls (2-6, 0-4 AAC) and East Carolina Pirates (4-4, 2-2).
While a 3-4 start forced East Carolina to fire its head coach, the Pirates are 1-0 in the Blake Harrell era and fresh off a 56-34 win over Temple — their biggest win over an FBS opponent this season.
Meanwhile, FAU has dropped 3 straight, and head coach Tom Herman was involved in a kerfuffle after the Owls lost, 44-21, to South Florida last week.
Last year, Herman called for an onside kick at the end of a blowout win. This year, USF went for two at the end, probably because they couldn’t go for three.pic.twitter.com/5pDZFihlW0
— Brian Davis (@byBDavis) November 2, 2024
With things starting to look more bleak in Boca Raton, do the Owls have enough to avoid losing a 3rd-consecutive game by double digits?
Let's dive into my FAU vs. East Carolina predictions and college football picks for Thursday, Nov. 7.
Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina Prediction
- Florida Atlantic vs. East Carolina Pick: East Carolina -7.5
My East Carolina vs. Florida Atlantic bet is on the Pirates to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina Odds
| Florida Atlantic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 57 -110 / -110 | +240 |
| East Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 57 -110 / -110 | -300 |
- Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina Point Spread: Florida Atlantic +7.5 (-110) · East Carolina -7.5 (-110)
- Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina Over/Under: 57 Points
- Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina Moneyline: Florida Atlantic +240 · East Carolina -300
Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina Preview
Florida Atlantic Owls Betting Preview: Few Bright Spots
After being expected to make a bowl this season, that’s looking more and more unrealistic with FAU in need of winning out to secure bowl eligibility.
Worse, the season could be going off the rails if Herman’s handshake histrionics are symbolic of the locker room.
The Owls are primarily a rushing team and rank fifth in the AAC with 169.8 rushing yards per game. However, they're far from efficient, as indicated by a Rush Success Rate outside the top 100.
Three different Owls have rushed the ball over 80 times this season, led by running back CJ Campbell, who has found the end zone eight times on the ground.
The trio of rushers includes quarterback Cam Fancher, who has thrown only three more passing touchdowns (6) than he has rushing touchdowns. Fancher has completed fewer than 60% of his passes this season and has twice been held to double-digit passing yards.
FAU’s defense has shown its warts in recent weeks, allowing over 300 yards in two of its last three games.
Its pass defense hasn’t been the only troubling unit, as last week South Florida rushed for 319 yards and four touchdowns against an Owl defense that has held a conference opponent below 38 points just once this year.
East Carolina Pirates Betting Preview: Changes Paying Off?
Maybe a coach firing was all the Pirates needed. With Mike Houston gone, East Carolina scored a season-high 56 points and beat an FBS opponent by at least 11 points for the first time this season.
The pass-heavy Pirates are now led by quarterback Katin Houser. In Houser's two starts since replacing the turnover-prone Jake Garcia, the former Michigan State Spartan has passed for 551 yards with an 8:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Houser's reduced turnovers are key for the Pirates' continued success, as Garcia's 12 interceptions are still a conference-high and a big reason for the team's slow start.
East Carolina’s season-high scoring effort against Temple last week saw the Pirates rush for a season-high 225 yards at 6.3 yards per clip. The 36 rush attempts were also tied for the second-most by the Pirates this season, something East Carolina may be try to replicate against a poor FAU run defense.
Interim head coach Blake Harrell was the team’s defensive coordinator, so it should come as no surprise that the man elevated to head coach also led the strongest part of the team.
East Carolina ranks top-20 nationally in both Rush Success allowed and Line Yards.
While the Pirates have excelled at slowing the run, the same can’t be said for their secondary.
East Carolina is 104th in Pass Success Rate allowed and just let Temple record its second-best passing outing of the season with 294 passing yards.
Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida Atlantic and East Carolina match up statistically:
Florida Atlantic Offense vs. East Carolina Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 105 | 14 | |
| Line Yards | 47 | 7 | |
| Pass Success | 103 | 104 |  |
| Havoc | 116 | 56 | |
| Finishing Drives | 129 | 113 | |
| Quality Drives | 98 | 55 | |
East Carolina Offense vs. Florida Atlantic Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 115 | 91 | |
| Line Yards | 102 | 106 | |
| Pass Success | 61 | 73 | |
| Havoc | 118 | 53 | |
| Finishing Drives | 115 | 78 | |
| Quality Drives | 102 | 97 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 113 | 58 |
| PFF Coverage | 30 | 43 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 106 | 54 |
| Middle 8 | 97 | 55 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.8 (58) | 21.6 (2) |
| Rush Rate | 58% (57) | 49% (94) |
Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina Pick & Prediction
A coach firing can be a catalyst for playing inspired football, but just how long can a team ride that wave?
It’s rarely more than a week, but even without the coach-change narrative, FAU isn’t a team that is capable of keeping things close with most teams in the top half of the AAC.
Three of FAU’s last four losses against FBS competition have all been decided by at least 14 points. The Owls have lost all four of their conference games by an average of 15.5 points.
FAU hasn’t done much passing the ball all season, and electing to run the ball plays right into East Carolina’s strength.
The Owls will be made one-dimensional on offense, and Fancher is too inconsistent to think he can string together another 300-yard passing performance like he did last week. East Carolina rides the momentum wave toward another cover.
Pick: East Carolina -7.5
Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Dowdy–Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC |
| Date: | Thursday, Nov. 7 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
The FAU Owls take on the East Carolina Pirates in Greenville on Thursday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina Betting Trends
- 60% of bets and 78% of the money are on East Carolina to cover the spread
- 88% of bets and 0% of the money on the moneyline are on East Carolina to win outright
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina Weather
