We have just 54 days until the FCS playoff selection show, so it's time to assess the FCS layout and lock in any futures you may not already have.
And for those who aren't familiar with the FCS, I think it's important to understand this is not your father's College Football Playoff.
The FCS comprises of 128 members. Nine programs are in the reclassification process, leaving 119 programs eligible for the FCS playoffs. The FCS playoffs are much closer to a football version of March Madness than they are the College Football Playoff:
- Field of 24 teams
- 10 conference champions with an automatic bid
- 14 teams with at-large bids
- Top-eight teams receive a first-round bye
The 10 FCS conferences that receive automatic bids include the ASUN/WAC Alliance, Big Sky, Big South, Colonial, Missouri Valley, Northeast, OVC/Southland Alliance, Patriot, Pioneer and Southern.
The Ivy League, the MEAC and the SWAC do not receive auto bids, and the Ivy forbids postseason play. The champions of the MEAC and SWAC square off in the Celebration Bowl, which is held on Dec. 17.
The ASUN and WAC will each have their own season, but a tie-breaking scenario will determine one automatic bid recipient from the alliance at the end of the season.
Below are three teams I believe hold value when it comes to placing FCS futures, along with one longshot.
One team you will notice that’s specifically excluded is North Dakota State. The Bison have won the FCS Championship nine times since 2011 and are consistently the best team in the FCS. There’s no value in taking them at just +200.
All odds below are current as of Sept. 28 and via WynnBET.
Montana Grizzlies (+450 · 2 Units)
The Grizzlies have made back-to-back quarterfinal appearances, and many expect this to be the year they break through.
Montana returns a ton of key players from last year, specifically on defense — a unit that last season ranked eighth in scoring defense, giving up just 16.3 points per game. It also finished second in turnovers, fifth in sacks and third in tackles for loss.
The Griz are off to a 4-0 start on the season but have a weaker schedule strength (85th overall). Their first four opponents' records add up to just 3-15.
Their defense has picked up right where it left off last year, holding teams to just 9.25 points per contest so far. The offense, meanwhile, is firing on all cylinder while averaging an astounding 42.35 points per game.
I'm looking to lock in Montana as soon as possible, as it’s one of the most experienced teams in FCS and has proven its ability to make it to later rounds of the playoffs in the past two seasons.
Over the next month, the Grizzlies will face two top-10 teams in Weber State and Sacramento State. If they beat them both, this number will fall drastically. I think they can win, and at the very least, will challenge the two.
Incarnate Word Cardinals (+800 · 0.6 Units)
The odds on Incarnate Word took a jump this week after it fell to Southeast Louisiana, 41-35. This feels like a huge opportunity to buy one of the most high-powered offenses the FCS has to offer.
Incarnate Word is led by quarterback Lindsey Scott Jr. — one of the best quarterbacks in all of FCS and maybe college football. He did throw an interception late in the fourth quarter in the loss to SELA, but this is one of the few mistakes he's made so far this season. I don't expect him to make many more.
UIW is 3-1 on the season and owns wins over FBS Nevada and No. 9 Southern Illinois.
It plays in the Southland and will have to traverse the additional challenge of beating out an OVC team for an automatic bid. But even if it receives an at-large bid, I'm still confident in its ability to make a run in the postseason.
This team is stacked with talent all the way down the roster, its offense is electric, and a new coaching staff brings looks many other coaches aren't familiar with. The defense needs some work, but it's something I think it can figure out as the season progresses.
Delaware Blue Hens (+800 · 1 Unit)
The 2022 season couldn't be off to a better start for the Blue Hens, and I think their winning ways will continue through to the postseason.
Delaware sits at 4-0 on the season and atop the CAA standings, with an FBS win over Navy to boot. A CAA team has reached the FCS playoff semifinals for nine consecutive years, and the conference has also had a team in the championship 11 times dating back to 2003.
The offense has put up 35 points or more points in three of its four games this season, while the defense has held three out of four opponents to less than 10 points.
Quarterback Nolan Henderson sits among the top five quarterbacks in FCS, already racking up more than 1,100 passing yards on the season while completing 69% of his attempts.
Again this is a market I expect to drop considerably in the near future — most likely the Hens take on William & Mary in two weeks. The Tribe are a top-25 team and likely their biggest challenge until they end the season at Villanova.
Longshot: Chattanooga Mocs (+4000 · 0.4 Units)
Don't overlook Chattanooga just because it was shut out by Illinois a week ago. This is still a strong FCS football team that ranks 10th in the subdivision. Yes, it was outmatched by one of the best running backs in FBS, but it has quite an impressive run game itself.
Running back Ailym Ford leads the team in rushing yards and is also a serious threat as a pass-catcher, ranking third on the team in receiving yards.
The Mocs boast a top-20 offense in the FCS, averaging 36.7 points and 435.7 yards per game.
They just missed making the playoffs last year, and they bring back a lot of experience on both sides of the ball. I expect this to be the first season that head coach Rusty Wright breaks through and gets his team into the mix for a shot at the FCS Championship.
How to Hedge FCS Futures
In total, this puts us at four units of risk on FCS futures.
In the event any of these teams find themselves pitted against North Dakota State in the postseason and you want to hedge, you can back the Bison spread at double the risk of your original future — NDSU has won its last 10 playoff games by an average of 14.3 points.
The Bison are the best team in the FCS and have been for 10 years. If you want to make it easy on yourself, lay four units on the Bison. I wouldn’t judge you; it’s just not how I bet futures.
Good luck, and go Mocs.
