Along with plenty of FBS action, Saturday's Week 7 college football slate features plenty of intriguing FCS matchups.
Betting FCS is a whole new ballgame, with massive line movement, late odds releases, and if we're lucky, severe mismatches. Click here for my top FCS betting tips.
I'm looking at three games featuring FCS teams today: Mercer vs. Princeton, Norfolk State vs. Towson and UT Martin vs. Western Illinois.
Let's dive into my FCS picks for Saturday, Oct. 12.
Princeton vs. Mercer
Mercer has been extremely impressive this year, sitting at 5-0. The defense has been locked, allowing just 7.8 points per game while facing some pretty good FCS offenses.
Offensively, quarterback D.J. Smith has competed 78% of his passes on the season with eight touchdowns. The Bears are allowing 224 yards per game to lead the FCS. The defense gives up just 23 yards per game on the ground and a completion percentage of just 46%.
Princeton has struggled on offense this year and has lost by 15 to Lehigh and 17 to Columbia.
Quarterback Blaine Hipa has completed just 48% of his passes with a 3:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Mercer has the better offense and much better defense in this game, and it's at home.
The strength of schedule advantage goes to Mercer here, as it has faced much tougher offensive football teams and the defense has been lights-out all season.
Princeton struggles to move the ball through the air, averaging just 133 yards per game with just a 43% completion percentage. With a weak passing offense, Princeton is going to struggle here to sustain drives and move the ball through the air.
The Mercer run defense is going to smother anything Princeton is going to try to do in the run game.
This is a really tough matchup for the Princeton offense. I have this game power-rated at -12.5 and feel that with the talent disparity and the line at just -6.5, you should lock in this play quickly before the line rises higher.
Target: Mercer -6.5
Towson vs. Norfolk State
Norfolk State has quietly become a solid under team this season, as the Spartans are 6-0 to the under in lined games this season.
The Norfolk State offense is averaging just 12.8 points per game this year against Division 1 opponents and has really struggled with offensive continuity. For the season, Norfolk State is averaging just 123 passing yards per game on just a 54% completion percentage.
The Spartans are running the ball on 70% of their offensive snaps and have consistently played extremely conservatively the entire season.
Towson has played quite a few low-scoring games this season but the defense has struggled the last two weeks against two very sound FCS offenses in William & Mary and North Dakota State.
The Tigers' offensive attack is evenly balanced, but Towson has been outgained in its last three games.
Towson has deployed a two-quarterback attack this year with Carlos Davis and Sean Brown, but it has at times caused the offense to lack rhythm.
The rushing attack, led by Devin Matthews and his 400 yards on the season, has been solid overall, and I look for Towson to lean on the ground game here on the road.
Both of these defenses have been above average when tasked with creating Havoc this season, so I can see a lower-scoring game here where the defense controls the action.
Towson has 34 tackles for loss on the season while facing some fairly potent offenses this season. Norfolk State is a team that allows negative plays and has surrendered 12 sacks on the season already.
Meanwhile, the Towson offense has already given up 10 sacks and has struggled to put the ball in the end zone when playing on the road.
I would expect a slower-paced game where Norfolk State hangs around because of its defense before Towson eventually pulls away. Either way, these two teams should finish under the posted total.
Target: Under 50.5
UT Martin vs. Western Illinois
Western Illinois has one of the worst defenses in the FCS this season, allowing 270 rushing yards per game and 6.5 yards per carry. The pass defense has been equally bad, allowing 9.8 yards per attempt while surrendering 46.8 points per game.
The Leathernecks have struggled to get stops on third down, allowing opponents to convert 57% of their third-down attempts.
UT Martin has performed below average this season but has faced two FBS teams, along with Missouri State and SEMO, which are regarded as top-25 FCS opponents.
The Skyhawk defense has done well to limit opponents to just 352 yards per game. The defensive front seven has been especially stout in stopping the run with just 3.6 yards per carry surrendered on the season.
I would expect UT Martin to gash Western Illinois running the football as it did in its previous two games against Kennesaw State and Gardner Webb.
This is the weakest rush defense the Skyhawks have lined up against all season, so workhorse running back Patrick Smith should feast here. The senior back is averaging 5.8 yards per carry on the season with nine touchdowns and can break loose at any point. He'll create problems for a Leatherneck stop unit that hasn't shown the ability to stop the run.
This UTM defense is one of the better defenses that WIU has played against this season. Prior to defeating Divison II McKendree University, the Leathernecks lost 27 consecutive games.
I fully expect the Skyhawks to put up a big number here on the road in conference play, and I can't see Western Illinois matching the scoring output.
UT Martin is favored by 22.5 points, but it's hard to see a path where WIU stays within this number based on the statistics and talent disparity.
Target: UT Martin -22.5
