Welcome to another Saturday of FCS football.
Betting FCS is a whole new ballgame, with massive line movement, late odds releases, and if we're lucky, severe mismatches. Click here for my top FCS betting tips.
I'm looking at three games featuring FCS teams today: South Dakota vs. Youngstown State, Stephen F. Austin vs. Southeastern Louisiana and Lehigh vs. Yale.
Let's dive into my FCS picks for Saturday, Oct. 12.
South Dakota vs. Youngstown State
South Dakota comes in playing very “under-the-radar” football lately, but the Coyotes are quietly one of the stronger teams in all of FCS football at 5-1. USD is 3-0 in league play and has easily destroyed Southern Illinois, Murray State and Northern Iowa while utilizing a solid running game and suffocating defense.
The Coyote stop unit is yielding only 280 total yards per game and 10.5 points per game, and the front seven is excellent at creating Havoc. The defense has secured 12 sacks this season and has forced 10 turnovers thus far.
The Yotes have played their best on third down, allowing just 34% to be converted.
Offensively, the Yotes run the ball on 63% of their offensive snaps, and the run game has been exceptionally strong. With a team average of 6.5 yards per carry and 23 rushing touchdowns, USD has received exceptional offensive line play, and opposing foes haven't provided any resistance.
Youngstown State is a really weak MVFC team that just lost to South Dakota State, 63-13. The Penguin offensive line is undersized and often gets pushed around by stronger foes.
However, they are averaging 469 yards and 26 points per game behind solid play from quarterback Beau Brungard, who leads the team in passing and rushing production on the season.
The offense moved it a bit against South Dakota State, but the Jacks were playing primarily second-team players after halftime so that is something to keep under consideration.
The major concern here for Y-State is the horrific play of the defense, which is allowing 429 yards on 8.2 yards per play. In this matchup, it's especially concerning that the Penguins are giving up 8.6 yards per carry and have surrendered 19 rushing scores.
Youngstown State was pushed around quite a bit by Valparaiso and Duquesne early this season and surrendered an absurd 404 rushing yards to South Dakota State on just 25 attempts. This team is in some major trouble here.
USD has a matchup with South Dakota State on deck and needs to keep piling up the wins to improve its FCS playoff positioning. I can't imagine that they take the Penguins lightly here, but I can see it running the ball exclusively in the second half to wear down the Youngstown State defensive line.
USD should also have no trouble getting pressure on Brungard, as the Yotes' secondary is excellent in defensive pass coverage, which will cause hesitation in decision-making.
I won’t call for USD to win by 50 as SDSU did a week ago, but I expect the Coyotes to win this one comfortably above the current betting margin.
Target: South Dakota -15.5 (Play to -20)
Stephen F. Austin vs. Southeastern Louisiana
Stephen F. Austin is my top-rated team in the Southland Conference, and they travel this week to take on Southeastern Louisiana.
The Lumberjacks have been outstanding offensively, averaging 492 yards and 42.5 points per game on the season.
Running backs Qualan Jones and Jaylen Jenkins have paced the SFA rushing attack with 912 yards and eight touchdowns combined with the team averaging 5.6 yards per carry.
Quarterback Sam Vidlak has been outstanding as well, completing 66% of his passes with a 17:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The Jacks defense is full of “hit seekers” who fly to the football and are excellent at creating negative plays. SFA has recorded 48 tackles for loss and 11 sacks this season to go along with eight interceptions. This is a strong defense.
SELA enters 2-0 in league play, but it has defeated two weaker teams in Texas A&M-Commerce and Houston Christian. The offense has really struggled this year when facing any competent defense, specifically in the passing game.
Quarterback Eli Sawyer is completing 60% of his passes, but his average is just 4.9 yards per pass. His favorite target is Darius Lewis, who has 42 catches on the season for 389 yards.
The major concern for the Lions is the weak offensive line play, which has allowed 55 negative plays, including 17 sacks. That's going to be a problem when lining up against this Stephen F. Austin defense.
SFA is the much stronger team here and will create significant issues for the Southeastern Louisiana offense. While SELA will provide some resistance defensively, it shouldn't hold up for four quarters here.
I fully expect SFA to take firm control of this lower-scoring game in the third quarter and smother the Lions offense with the game on the line. Take SFA at -2.5.
Pick: Stephen F. Austin -2.5
Lehigh vs. Yale
Yale comes in off of a stunning overtime loss against Dartmouth, where the Bulldogs saw a 37-16 lead evaporate in the fourth quarter.
The Yale defense has been shockingly bad this season. In fact, it has been the worst in the Ivy League. Surrendering 451 yards and 36 points per game, the stop unit has held the Bulldogs back from a stronger start in 2024.
Yale has struggled to put pressure and stress on opposing quarterbacks this year, and it has recorded only 18 tackles for loss and three sacks.
Offensively, Yale has deployed a two-quarterback system with Grant Jordan and Brogan McCaughey. They have combined to complete 62% of their passes for 982 yards with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions.
The offensive line has some work to do in the run game, but I expect we will see this Yale group have more success this week against Lehigh.
Lehigh comes in off of a 38-35 loss against Bucknell, but it hasn't played since Sept. 28 off a rare double bye and sits at 3-2 on the season.
The Mountain Hawks are paced by running back Luke Yoder, who has run for 419 yards and eight touchdowns on the season. Lehigh also uses two quarterbacks in Hayden Johnson and Dante Perri, who have combined to throw for 824 yards and seven touchdowns on the season.
Defensively, the metrics look OK for Lehigh, but it did benefit from facing two of the worst FCS offenses early on in Wagner and Long Island. It also faced a Princeton team that has been a mess and has lacked identity and competent quarterback play.
I feel that Yale will move the ball on the undersized Mountain Hawks, and given the blown lead last week against Dartmouth, I can't imagine the Bulldogs taking anything for granted in this matchup.
The Yale defense still cannot be trusted, and I expect both teams to punch it in frequently in this matchup.
My numbers on the game have 63.5, and with a posted total of 53.5, there's value in playing another Yale over until the defense shows some fortitude and the ability to bow up in the red zone.
Pick: Over 53.5 (Play to 56)
