The FCS slate is long in Week 5.
Along with plenty of FBS action, Saturday's college football slate features a lot of FCS-on-FCS matchups.
Betting FCS is a whole new ballgame, with massive line movement, late odds releases, and if we're lucky, severe mismatches. Click here for my top FCS betting tips.
I have my eyes on two games featuring FCS teams today: Lindenwood vs. Eastern Illinois and Southeastern Louisiana vs. Tarleton State.
Let's dive into my FCS picks and predictions for Saturday, Sept. 28.
Lindenwood vs. Eastern Illinois
This is a weather play, as Charleston, Illinois, is expected to see rain in the afternoon tomorrow along with sustained 14-17 MPH winds. This helps our position with two struggling offenses battling it out in the elements.
EIU has struggled offensively all season, scoring 41 total points in three games. Panthers quarterback Pierce Holley has not gotten going this season, as he has passed for just 654 yards in four games. He has also thrown six interceptions and been sacked eight times on the season.
The running game has also been weak with the Panthers averaging just 2.9 yards per carry on the season.
The defense has been put in terrible spots all year but has actually played OK given the circumstances. Now, it should be better positioned against a weaker FCS offensive team in Lindenwood.
The Lions come in off a strong performance against a non-scholarship FCS Pioneer Football League member in St. Thomas, defeating the Tommies by a score of 64-0.
In games against scholarship-level foes, Lindenwood is averaging 10 points and 263 yards per game.
Prior to the game against St. Thomas, Lindenwood was averaging just 5.86 yards per pass and 3.5 yards per rush on the season. Both of these teams allow plenty of negative plays against them. EIU has given up nine sacks, while Lindenwood has allowed 11.
Early-down Success Rates have also been problematic, as these two teams have been playing in third-down situations often. They
I see the weather elements making it difficult to attack through the air, and both of these teams are going to have to make concerted efforts to run the ball. I'm not confident in either offense to convert on third down and extend drives enough to score touchdowns.
Kicking will also be difficult with wind and rain elements, which will lead to failed fourth-down attempts.
As the projected favorite in the OVC/Big South, EIU really needs a win to get its season back on track, so watch for the Panthers to sit on the lead in the second half and grind out a low-scoring win.
Target: Under 48.5
Southeastern Louisiana vs. Tarleton State
Southeastern Louisiana has played a tough schedule up to this point in the season. The Lions come in at 1-3 and were not competitive in two outings against FBS foes and a 41-0 blowout against South Dakota State.
Their lone win came at home against a weak Eastern Washington team.
SELA has struggled to get it going offensively, especially in the passing game. Both Eli Sawyer and Damon Stewart have played this season, and the total passing output has been bad. For the season, SELA is averaging just 112 yards per game through the air.
The rushing attack has been a struggle as well, averaging just 3.54 yards per carry.
SELA has allowed a high rate of Havoc, including 11 total sacks allowed while committing seven total turnovers.
Defensively, Tarleton has played pretty well this year, especially when compared to how it performed last year. The Texans have started to build momentum after back-to-back wins, and they return starting quarterback Victor Gabalis from injury.
Gabalis totally changes the dynamic of the offensive and makes it much more explosive.
I'm not confident in SELA throwing the ball effectively in a game where it should be trailing throughout.
Tarleton hasn’t played up to their potential based on preseason projections, but you have a team starting to find its rhythm up against a team with no continuity and no passing game. The Texans win this game by a couple of scores.
Target: Tarleton State -2.5
