Along with plenty of FBS action, Saturday's Week 6 college football slate features a lot of FCS matchups.
Betting FCS is a whole new ballgame, with massive line movement, late odds releases, and if we're lucky, severe mismatches. Click here for my top FCS betting tips.
I'm looking at three games featuring FCS teams today: Marist vs. Davidson, Albany vs. Cornell and Northwestern State vs. Stephen F. Austin.
Let's dive into my FCS picks for Saturday, Oct. 5.
Marist vs. Davidson
Davidson hosts fellow Pioneer Football League member Marist this weekend in a good matchup for the Wildcats.
Marist has one of the worst offenses in the PFL and has implemented new schemes with a new offensive coordinator. The rushing attack is averaging 72.5 yards per game on just 2.9 yards per carry.
Quarterbacks Sonny Mannino and Enzo Arjona have split reps this season, completing 84-of-145 passes for 733 yards in four games. However, Marist has allowed a plethora of negative plays, including 11 sacks.
While the Davidson defense is not overly strong, I can't imagine Marist can keep up with the Wildcats' scoring output in this one.
For how bad the Red Foxes offense has been, their defense has been equally bad. Marist is allowing 42 points per game this season and has been outgained by 176 yards per game.
Davidson uses a run-heavy triple-option attack that has averaged 364 yards per game and 6.2 yards per carry for the season. The Wildcats use several backs to distribute the workload, led by Mari Adams. Adams is averaging 127 yards per game and has six rushing touchdowns on the season.
As a team, Davidson has rushed for 18 scores on the ground.
A worse Wildcats team defeated the Red Foxes on the road last season, 49-21, and I would look for a similar margin of victory for Davidson in this game.
With a projected line of just -15.5, Davidson is worth a play.
Target: Davidson -15.5
Albany vs. Cornell
Albany continues to obtain respect in the FCS betting markets despite massive losses on offense and a completely overhauled defense. In its three games against FCS competition, Albany has been outgained in each contest by an average of 83.3 yards per game.
The Great Danes are just 11-of-36 on third down this year and have experienced no running game to hang their hat on. In fact, they have averaged just 2.6 yards per rush and 69 rushing yards per game.
The offensive line allows a ton of Havoc, as quarterback Myles Burkett has been sacked nine times in three games against FCS foes. Overall, the Danes have allowed 20 negative plays in those three contests.
Cornell comes in after blasting Yale in its last game. The Big Red outgained Yale by 173 yards and won the turnover battle, 3-1. Big Red quarterback Jameson Wang also went 18-of-29 for 278 yards and four passing touchdowns while also running for a score.
The passing game is dangerous because Cornell also has a trio of receivers who can get open and catch the ball.
I like Wang’s decision-making and dual-threat ability. With Cornell — which I believe is the better team — at home, catching 3.5 points makes this worth a play.
Target: Cornell +3.5
Northwestern State vs. Stephen F. Austin
Northwestern State was up against it this season with a new coaching staff and a ton of turnover on the roster. Well, the effects have been felt hardest on the defensive side of the football.
The Demons have allowed no less than 420 yards to opposing offenses and are surrendering on average 48.8 points per game.
Last week, Northwestern State lost to SEMO in a game that was played in rainy and windy conditions. While SEMO scored only 19 points, it had two missed field goals, threw an interception in Demon territory and punted just twice.
A similar set of circumstances played out in Northwestern State’s last game against Weber State in which it lost, 39-0. Weber State missed a field goal, threw a red-zone pick and turned the ball over on downs at the 14-yard line going in to score.
The Demon defense could have and should have surrendered many more points on the scoreboard here in the last two weeks.
That's bad news considering Stephen F. Austin has racked up 962 yards of offense over the last two weeks.
Journeyman quarterback Sam Vidlak has landed the starting quarterback job at SFA after stints at Oregon State and Montana. He has five receiver threats to throw the ball to and a running game that's averaging 217 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry.
Qualan Jones is explosive and hits the hole hard, racking up 7.0 yards per carry on the season.
This offense is going to put up a big number against a Northwestern State defense that just doesn’t have the talent to consistently stop the opposition.
Defensively, SFA has surrendered 308 yards per game and 17.5 points per game. I won’t expect much from Northwestern State, but after being shut out two weeks in a row, I would imagine it's seeking to avoid another shutout at all costs.
I see a fast start for the Lumberjacks and plenty of points to get comfortably over this lower total. Anything at 52 or less is a play for me.
Target: Over 49.5 (Play to 52)
