Welcome to the FCS Playoffs.
Betting FCS is a whole new ballgame, with massive line movement, late odds releases, and if we're lucky, severe mismatches. Click here for my top FCS betting tips.
I'm looking at three games featuring FCS teams today: Lehigh vs. Idaho, Tarleton State vs. South Dakota, and Abilene Christian vs. North Dakota State.
Let's dive into our FCS Playoffs picks for Saturday, Dec. 7.
Abilene Christian vs. North Dakota State
The return of quarterback Maverick McIvor for the Wildcats is absolutely critical in this matchup. McIvor has missed the last couple of games but is fully expected to play here, and the offense that ACU runs can give NDSU problems.
Remember, this is an ACU squad that put up 615 yards and 51 points in a season-opening loss at Texas Tech. The North Dakota State defense will not be able to bully Abilene Christian as it has other opponents in prior years.
The Bison are also very susceptible to giving up yards through the air and have surrendered 838 pass yards combined in the last three weeks.
Abilene Christian will spread out the North Dakota State defense, and we should see plenty of quick efficient passes with run-after-the-catch potential.
ACU has two 1,000-yard receivers who are extremely reliable, and Sam Hicks has put up 1,299 yards on the ground.
Abilene Christian's defensive unit has not been good this year, but I was very encouraged by how it performed last week against Northern Arizona. The performance was completely unexpected, but I was thrilled to see how the Wildcats handled the run and put pressure on NAU quarterback Ty Pennington.
While I don't expect a repeat performance, I expect the Wildcats to provide enough resistance to keep this game close in the second half before the Bison wear them down in the fourth quarter.
This game could be really competitive for a half or so, and ACU won’t stop throwing it around late. This line appears a tad too high here, so I'm more than happy to grab +24.5 and settle in for a fun one in Fargo.
Pick: Abilene Christian +24.5
Tarleton State vs. South Dakota
Tarleton State came into this season with high expectations in the UAC, but early-season injuries and poor defensive play held this team back much of the way.
The Texans still slipped into the playoffs and defeated FCS non-scholarship Pioneer Football League champion Drake in the first round of the FCS Playoffs last week.
Their reward: a trip to the USD DakotaDome to face one of the premier defensive teams in FCS and a group of Coyotes ready to take the next step with their program.
USD has its strongest team in program history and a group that has played amazing football this season. At 9-2 with close losses against Wisconsin and South Dakota State, this group has proven it belongs at the top of FCS.
The 'Yotes are incredible in the defensive trenches and have registered 27 sacks and 55 tackles for loss this season, along with countless other pressures on opposing quarterbacks.
As this game wears on, I can see USD living in the Tarleton State backfield and would expect virtually no rushing game for the Texans to rely on.
South Dakota also played exceptional third-down defense and has allowed just 17 red-zone touchdowns all season.
USD ranks No. 1 in PFF run blocking in FCS, and I would expect the offensive line to open the lanes for Charles Pierre Jr. and Travis Theis all day. The 'Yotes running back duo has combined for 1,919 rushing yards and 28 touchdowns on the season and should feast in this matchup.
Tarleton State hasn't played an FCS team rated anywhere near USD in defensive metrics. And while its offensive numbers look solid, it's been feasting on exceedingly weak defenses.
This is a massive step up in class for the Texans on the road, and while they notched a nice playoff win last week, the athletes they'll be lining up against this week are expected to provide a much stiffer challenge.
Lay it with the 'Yotes, who should win this one by more than three touchdowns.
Pick: South Dakota -15.5 (Play to -19)
Lehigh vs. Idaho
Idaho has welcomed back starting quarterback Jack Layne from injury, and the offense has really been rolling the last several weeks, including capping off another solid season with a win over rival Idaho State in the finale.
The Vandals have played the No. 2-ranked FCS schedule and have competed really well this year in a very tough Big Sky Conference.
Lehigh is really going to struggle here in the trenches, specifically when it comes to stopping the Vandals on the ground.
Idaho has averaged 207 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry over the last four weeks and has put up chunk plays with Nate Thomas and Elisha Cummings.
While the Lehigh defense was tough on Patriot League opponents, the interior of this defense is really banged up and dealing with injuries to key players.
Lehigh is a run-oriented football team, and we should see Luke Yoder and Jaden Green get plenty of touches in this one.
The concern here is that the Vandals' run defense is elite at the FCS level, allowing just 135 yards on the ground and 3.5 yards per carry all season.
Remember what they did against Oregon? They gave up just 107 yards on 2.9 yards per carry.
The Patriot League is a significantly weaker league than the Big Sky, and Idaho took full advantage of a week off to get healthy and rested for this home playoff game.
Lehigh has been held under 200 passing yards 10 times this season, and it will likely be playing from behind most of the way here.
Idaho's defensive front has secured 31 sacks and 67 tackles for loss this year and should hold up really well against the run here. Lehigh is not comfortable passing the ball and in the late stages when it needs a drive to close the gap. I can't trust that Lehigh's offensive line will hold up and protect.
Idaho is not likely to threaten for an FCS title this season, but it's are a much more superior football team than Lehigh and should win this one comfortably in the Kibbie Dome Saturday night.
Lay it with the Vandals.
Pick: Idaho -14
