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FIU vs Indiana Prediction & Pick for NCAAF Week 1

FIU vs Indiana Prediction & Pick for NCAAF Week 1 article feature image
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Credit: Getty Images.

Indiana moved on from Tom Allen after three straight losing seasons and went down to Harrisonburg to pluck Curt Cignetti from James Madison. The long-time coach will finally get his shot at a Power 4 school, and all he has done is win at every stop.

He started his head coaching career in 2011 at IUP in the Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference and went 53-17 with the Crimson Hawks. He then went 14-9 in two seasons at Elon, with FCS playoff berths in both years.

Cignetti spent five seasons at James Madison, going 52-9 with the Dukes. They made the playoffs in all three seasons at the FCS level, including a trip to the Championship game. James Madison won its division in the past two seasons but was not eligible for the conference championship. The Dukes went 19-4 in the two seasons at the FBS level.

He wins. Google Him.

Cignetti brings his entire James Madison defense and some offensive stars to Bloomington. The big question is how the 2023 Dukes would've fared in the Big Ten — that might decide Cignetti and his team's future.

But for this game, we need to figure out how badly the 2023 Dukes would've beaten a bad Conference USA team.


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FIU vs Indiana Prediction

My FIU-Indiana best bet is on the Hoosiers to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.


FIU vs Indiana Odds

FIU Logo
Saturday, August 31
3:30 p.m. ET
Big Ten Network
Indiana Logo
FIU Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+24.5
-110
51.5
-114o / -106u
+1280
Indiana Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-24.5
-110
51.5
-114o / -106u
-3500
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.
FanDuel Logo
  • FIU vs Indiana Point Spread: FIU +24.5 (-110) · Indiana -24.5 (-110)
  • FIU vs Indiana Total: Over/Under 51.5
  • FIU vs Indiana Moneyline: FIU +1280 · Indiana -3500
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FIU vs Indiana Preview

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FIU Betting Preview: Mistakes and Miscues

Keyone Jenkins returns at quarterback for the Panthers, but he was a mess last season.

He threw 11 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions on a whopping 22 turnover-worthy throws. While he is capable with his legs, rushing for six scores on the ground, he also fumbled the ball 15 times.

Jenkins will be without his top receiver, Kris Mitchell, who transferred to Notre Dame. Mitchell caught six of FIU’s 12 receiving touchdowns. Dean Patterson and Eric Rivers return, but they combined for just 60 catches and three touchdowns.

Florida International has depth at running back with Shomari Lawrence, Kejon Owens, and Lexington Joseph (returning from a torn ACL). Lawrence led the team with 566 yards last season. Whoever runs the ball will have a difficult task against this Indiana front seven.

Last season, the Panthers had the worst defense in C-USA — in a conference filled with lousy defenses! FIU allowed more than 430 yards and 30 points per game, both bottom-15 marks nationally.

The unit can't create Havoc. They struggle to force turnovers and managed only 17 sacks last year. Opponents picked apart the defense with the pass.


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Indiana Betting Preview: The JMU to Indiana Pipeline

Cignetti brings a ton of talent with him to Bloomington, especially on defense.

Mikail Kamara, James Carpenter, Tyrique Tucker on the defensive line, linebackers Aiden Fisher and Jailin Walker, and cornerback D’Angelo Ponds all transfer in from James Madison.

The defense should be fantastic at the point of attack. James Madison was elite against the run last year, allowing just 2.6 yards per carry last season, the second-best mark nationally. The Dukes allowed over 100 rushing yards in a game just twice.

On offense, Cignetti also retained 1,000-yard-wide receiver Elijah Sarratt, 1,000-yard running back Kaelon Black and his backup Ty Son Lawton, and All-Sun Belt tight end Zach Horton. Guards Nick Kidwell and Tyler Stephens will anchor the Hoosiers up front.

Indiana also nabbed quarterback Kurtis Rourke from the transfer portal after he threw for over 7,000 yards and 50 touchdowns in his career at Ohio. He was the MAC Player of the Year two years ago.

With Sarratt and Indiana’s top receiver from last year — Donaven McCulley — in the fold, Rourke will have weapons. McCulley came on strong late in the year, catching five touchdowns with 420 yards across the last five games.


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FIU vs Indiana Pick & Prediction

I asked Action Network’s Collin Wilson what his Power Ratings would have made the spread for James Madison vs. FIU last season. He said JMU -25.5 on a neutral field.

I might feel differently if this game was played in Pitbull Stadium. Still, I am not high on Florida International this season and think the Hoosiers will outclass them.

Indiana's front seven should feast against a weak FIU offensive line that allowed a whopping 49 sacks last year.

I expect the Hoosiers to stuff the run, putting more pressure on Jenkins and FIU's passing attack, likely forcing him into characteristic mistakes.

Cignetti loves running up the score. When James Madison moved to the FBS in 2022, the Dukes beat Middle Tennessee 44-7 and Norfolk State 63-7 in their first two games. They hung at least 40 points six times in 2022 and five times in 2023.

Indiana plays Western Illinois next week, so the Hoosiers have no reason to hold anything back or look ahead here.

Instead, I expect this team of Group of 5 transfers playing in a power conference on the Big 10 Network to make a statement.

Pick: Indiana -21.5 (Play to -23)


How to Watch FIU vs Indiana Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location

Location:Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN
Date:Saturday, Aug. 31
Kickoff Time:3:30 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming:Big Ten Network

FIU vs Indiana Betting Trends

  • While over 60% of the bets are on FIU, over 70% of the handle is on Indiana.
  • Indiana went just 3-9 straight up last season but was 7-5 against the spread.
  • FIU went 4-8 SU and 5-7 ATS in 2023, including 5-5 ATS as an underdog and 4-2 ATS on the road.

FIU vs Indiana Weather

Get the latest coverage on NCAAF Weather.
About the Author
Mike grew up in Connecticut but now lives in Pennsylvania and is a graduate of Penn State. He loves hockey and college football and thinks there is nothing better than a Big Ten game with Beth Mowins calling inside runs and punts on a cold and rainy Saturday.

Follow Mike Ianniello @Ianniello21 on Twitter/X.

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