Does the Group of Five Playoff berth still run through Lynchburg? With UNLV and James Madison both dropping their first games of the season this past weekend, the Liberty Flames certainly think so.
Liberty (4-0, 2-0 Conference USA) returns to action after an extended layoff that saw a game with Appalachian State canceled due to Hurricane Helene, followed by the mini bye this past weekend which allows for this Tuesday matchup.
Florida International (2-3, 1-0) makes the trip up north with a similar layoff, having beaten Louisiana Tech, 17-10, the last time the Panthers took the field in what was a small upset
It’s our first Tuesday night matchup of the college football season. Will we be treated to a close contest, or will the Flames exert their Conference USA dominance?
Let's dive into my FIU vs. Liberty predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, Oct. 8.
FIU vs. Liberty Odds, Betting Line, Spread
| FIU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -108 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +580 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -112 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -880 |
- FIU vs. Liberty Spread: FIU +16.5 (-108) · Liberty -16.5 (-112)
- FIU vs. Liberty Total: Over/Under 54.5 (-110 / -110)
- FIU vs. Liberty Moneyline: FIU ML +580 · Liberty ML -880
FIU Panthers vs. Liberty Flames Pick
- FIU vs. Liberty Prediction: FIU 1H +10.5
My FIU vs. Liberty best bet is on the Panthers to cover the first-half spread, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
FIU Panthers Betting Preview
While Pitbull Stadium may be the home of FIU football, the Panthers haven’t exactly had much reason to sing and dance. FIU already has a pair of double-digit losses on the season and fell to FCS Monmouth a few weeks ago.
Despite a poor start to the year, the Panthers’ fortunes showed signs of turning the last time they took the field, pulling off an upset of Louisiana Tech to give FIU as many conference wins this season as it did in all of 2023 (one).
While the Panthers lost their 2023 conference-leading receiver Kris Mitchell to the transfer portal, FIU is the beneficiary of continuity at the running back and quarterback positions.
The two-headed rushing attack of Kejon Owens and Lexington Joseph have combined for five rushing touchdowns, with each player averaging nearly 5.0 yards per carry.
Quarterback Keyone Jenkins, who threw as many touchdowns as interceptions in 2023 (11) has shown some accuracy improvement this season while also cutting down on turnovers. Aside from a bad outing against FAU, Jenkins has just one interception in his other four games.
However, defense continues to be an issue for the Panthers.
Particularly problematic for this matchup against a run-heavy Liberty offense is FIU’s ineffectiveness at stopping the run. The Panthers rank outside the top 100 nationally in run defense and have allowed at least four rushing touchdowns in two of their last three games.
Liberty Flames Betting Preview
Throw together a robust NIL fund, the easiest schedule in the FBS and a talented head coach, and you come away with a Liberty football program that owns the longest regular-season winning streak and an inside track to the 12-team College Football Playoff.
After losing to one of the few quality opponents on their schedule in Appalachian State, the Flames now enter a stretch of five straight games where they’ll likely be double-digit favorites.
A huge part of Liberty’s success under head coach Jamey Chadwell has been one of the most efficient running games in America.
While the Flames aren't on the same level as 2023 when they averaged nearly 300 yards rushing per game, they're still top-20 nationally in rushing offense with a trio of options capable of ripping off big runs.
Running backs Quinton Cooley and Billy Lucas have both contributed four scores on the ground this year, and each player has at least one 100-yard outing in 2024.
The pair of backs are well positioned to find the end zone on several occasions this week, as only two teams in Conference USA have allowed more rushing touchdowns than FIU.
The third rushing option — and the straw that stirs the Flames' drink — is quarterback Kaidon Salter.
The dual-threat quarterback has seven passing touchdowns to one interception and is a master of taking advantage of defenses that key in on stopping the ground game.
Salter, who's second in Conference USA with 9.2 yards per attempt, leads the league with four completions over 50 yards.
The Liberty run defense leads the way on the other side of the ball, where the Flames allow the second-fewest rushing yards per game in the Conference (115.3).
While the run defense has been strong, Liberty has allowed three of its four opponents to score 24 points this season.
Liberty vs. FIU Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Liberty and FIU match up statistically:
FIU Offense vs. Liberty Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 122 | 48 | |
| Line Yards | 125 | 14 | |
| Pass Success | 80 | 25 | |
| Havoc | 104 | 39 | |
| Finishing Drives | 23 | 38 | |
| Quality Drives | 113 | 39 | |
Liberty Offense vs. FIU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 27 | 86 | |
| Line Yards | 50 | 93 | |
| Pass Success | 42 | 23 | |
| Havoc | 36 | 117 | |
| Finishing Drives | 40 | 41 |  |
| Quality Drives | 84 | 80 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 44 | 54 |
| PFF Coverage | 6 | 56 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 122 | 117 |
| Middle 8 | 96 | 38 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.6 (54) | 28.5 (93) |
| Rush Rate | 51% (86) | 62% (25) |
How to Bet My FIU vs. Liberty Prediction
Conference USA — and potentially the Group of Five's CFP bid — is still Liberty’s to lose, and there’s good reason for the Flames to be significant favorites on Tuesday.
But a line of three scores? That’s too steep to confidently support.
Liberty is not as much of a juggernaut as the team from 2023. The Flames' rushing offense hasn't been as dominant, and the team is just 1-3 against the spread this season.
Liberty tends to find more success in the second half once its running game has worn down the opponent. Despite being undefeated on the season, Liberty’s aggregate first-half score is 47-47.
I think both teams come out a little slow after the extended break. The Flames will likely pull away the longer the game goes on, but I think FIU can keep it within 10 before the break.
Pick: FIU 1H +10.5 (Play to +10)
How to Watch FIU vs. Liberty
| Location: | Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, VA |
| Date: | Tuesday, Oct. 8 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS Sports Network |
Liberty vs. FIU Betting Trends
- FIU has landed 59% of the tickets and generated 64% of the money.
- The over has taken 85% of bets and 99% of the cash.
FIU vs. Liberty Weather
