The Florida Atlantic Owls and Michigan State Spartans will face off in Week 1 in a battle between two FBS teams. This game will take place in Spartan Stadium in East Lansing at 7 p.m. ET on Friday night on the Big Ten Network.
Where's the best place to find value when betting on this game? Let’s take a look at my FAU vs Michigan State prediction and preview to find out.
Florida Atlantic vs Michigan State Prediction
- FAU vs. Michigan State Pick: Under 45
My FAU vs. Michigan State best bet is on the under with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
FAU vs Michigan State Odds
| Florida Atlantic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -105 | 45.5 +100o / -122u | +400 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -115 | 45.5 +100o / -122u | -550 |
- Florida Atlantic vs Michigan State Point Spread: Florida Atlantic +12.5 (-105) · Michigan State -12.5 (-115)
- Florida Atlantic vs Michigan State Total: Over/Under 45.5
- Florida Atlantic vs Michigan State Moneyline: Florida Atlantic +400 · Michigan State -550
Florida Atlantic vs Michigan State Preview
Florida Atlantic Owls Betting Preview: Long Way to Go for Owls?
Tom Herman is in his second year with the Florida Atlantic Owls. Last season — their first in the AAC — they went just 4-8. The schedule does lighten up this season, but Florida Atlantic may still have to fight an uphill battle to get to a bowl game.
The Owls ranked 106th in Offensive Success Rate last season. They passed the ball 55% of the time (27th-most), but were 98th in Passing Success Rate and 90th in passing PPA. They didn’t run the ball much better, ranking 81st in rushing PPA.
They now lose their top two quarterbacks, top three rushers and top five receivers as this will be a total reset at the offensive skill positions.
Cam Fancher transferred in from Marshall to start at quarterback, but overall, this is a very inexperienced offense. SP+ currently has this unit pegged at 122nd in the preseason rankings.
The defense was better for FAU last year. It was 76th in Success Rate and 37th in Finishing Drives. This defense was great against the run, ranking 33rd in rushing PPA allowed, 49th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and eighth in Rushing Explosiveness Allowed.
The unit's biggest issues came against the pass, where it was 113th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 103rd in passing PPA allowed.
This season, the Owls bring back eight defensive starters and should be an improved unit overall. Whether they'll be able to hold up against a Big Ten front is up for debate, but the defense looks to be in good shape for the season as a whole.
Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview: New Start for Sparty
Michigan State is starting back at square one as new head coach Jonathan Smith will look to transform this program back to its previous heights.
Last season, the Spartans were 4-8, including just a 2-7 record in conference play.
This offense ranked just 121st in Offensive Success Rate last season. It was 127th on the ground and 103rd through the air.
Luckily for the Spartans, Smith is a good offensive coach and will look to revamp this unit. Smith brings over quarterback Aidan Chiles from Oregon State, who appeared in nine games as a true freshman last year, mostly in a mop-up role.
The Spartans return two offensive linemen and leading rusher Nate Carter, but much of this offensive identity remains unknown. Smith typically implements a run-heavy system, which will likely give Michigan State an advantage with its size.
Michigan State’s defense should be the best unit on the field in this matchup. It's ranked 26th in SP+ to start the season. This unit was only 93rd in Success Rate Allowed last season but 22nd in explosiveness allowed.
The Spartans return a whopping 10 starters when including transfers and should be improved from a season ago.
Florida Atlantic vs Michigan State Pick & Prediction
The defense is the shining star for both of these teams. Michigan State, in particular, has a ton of returning production on this side of the ball and will hold a size advantage over a weak FAU offense.
Florida Atlantic’s defense isn’t a slouch either and may not be able to directly challenge MSU physically, but it could make things difficult for the Spartans.
Each of these teams is replacing a large portion of their offense and will have new quarterbacks to break in. It could happen, but this transition typically isn’t completed already in Week 1.
This under is already low for a college football game, but I’m still on it. Give me the under at 45 points, and I would take this down to 42.5 as I think this should be a defensive battle.
Pick: Under 45 (Play to 42.5) |
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How to Watch Florida Atlantic vs Michigan State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI |
| Date: | Friday, Aug. 30 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Big Ten Network |
Florida Atlantic vs Michigan State Betting Trends
- Three experts are currently on Michigan State spread, according to our Action Network expert picks.
- Michigan State has generated 60% of the tickets and 79% of the money.
- The over has taken 57% of bets but only 51% of the cash.
Florida Atlantic vs Michigan State Weather
