The Florida Gators (6-5, 4-4) take on the Florida State Seminoles (2-9, 1-7 ACC) in Sunshine State Rivalry Week action on Saturday. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Is there an award for In-Season Comeback Coach of the Year? If so, Billy Napier should be a shoo-in to take home the hardware.
Midway through the year, Napier was all but fired. The writing was on the wall, and the only question was how much damage would be done to Florida’s recruiting class. Fast forward to the end of November, and the Gators have knocked off Top-25 opponents in back-to-back games and appear to have a real gem at the most important position.
On the other end of the spectrum is Florida State. While the Seminoles were expected to take a step back from 2023, this was more of a skip, hop, and a leap in reverse. The 2-9 Seminoles haven’t beaten an FBS team since September, and the season’s finish can’t come fast enough.
The Gators are three-score favorites with 100% of the momentum on their side. Will they channel the good vibes into a blowout win?
Florida enters as a -16.5 favorite with the over/under at 45.5.
Let's dive into my Florida vs. Florida State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 30.
Florida vs Florida State Prediction
- Florida vs. Florida State Pick: Florida -16.5
My Florida State vs. Florida best bet is on the Gators to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Florida vs Florida State Odds
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 / -110 | -900 |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 / -110 | +590 |
- Florida vs Florida State Spread: Florida -16.5 (-110) · Florida State +16.5 (-110)
- Florida vs Florida State Over/Under: 45.5 Points
- Florida vs Florida State Moneyline: Florida -900 · Florida State +590
Florida vs Florida State Preview
Florida Gators Betting Preview: Efficient Run and a QB on the Rise
Business is booming in the Swamp. Consecutive wins over LSU and Ole Miss have Florida flying high and surging up the recruiting rankings, not far removed from what looked like a would-be dumpster-fire season.
Quarterback DJ Lagway has flashed signs of being every bit as good as the heralded prospect was anticipated to be.
The freshman passer had two of the three best performances of his career against FBS competition in the last two weeks, making the delay in starting him until midseason all the more perplexing.
While Lagway has been figuring out the college game, Florida's ground game has been the most efficient part of its offense, ranking 41st in Rush Success Rate. Led by Jadan Baugh, Florida has three different rushers with at least 400 yards rushing and five rushing touchdowns.
Defensively, Florida has struggled to bottle up the run, ranking second to last in the SEC with 161.4 yards rushing allowed per game.
The Gators have allowed some big passing performances to the big boys of the SEC down the stretch, but Luke Kromenhoek isn’t exactly on the same level as Quinn Ewers, Carson Beck, or Jaxson Dart.
Florida State Seminoles Betting Preview: A Long Way Down
What a fall from the top of college football it’s been for Florida State since losing Jordan Travis. The Seminoles are one of the worst Power Four teams and are getting beat in just about every component of the game.
On offense, it’s been patchwork at the quarterback position.
The Seminoles have cycled through DJ Uiagalelei and Brock Glenn, before landing on Kromenhoek. The freshman passed for 209 yards and three touchdowns in his first career start last week against the juggernaut that is Charleston Southern.
It’s been a similar committee approach at the running back position with no real star to speak of. Lawrance Toafili leads the gang with 413 yards and two touchdowns for an offense that is only 116th in Rush Success Rate.
The Florida State defense has been slightly better than the offense, although not by much. Florida State’s 27.7 points allowed per game are the 12th best in the ACC and more than a touchdown worse than where the Seminoles ended 2023.
The Seminoles defense has gotten worse as the season has dragged on. Five of the last six FBS opponents Florida State has played have recorded at least 445 yards of offense.
Florida vs Florida State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida and Florida State match up statistically:
Florida Offense vs. Florida State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 41 | 59 | |
| Line Yards | 71 | 66 | |
| Pass Success | 78 | 116 | |
| Havoc | 90 | 87 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 42 | 48 | |
| Quality Drives | 109 | 108 | |
Florida State Offense vs. Florida Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 116 | 111 | |
| Line Yards | 82 | 89 | |
| Pass Success | 130 | 50 | |
| Havoc | 130 | 49 | |
| Finishing Drives | 127 | 28 | |
| Quality Drives | 126 | 72 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 86 | 35 |
| PFF Coverage | 116 | 109 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 4 | 3 |
| Middle 8 | 89 | 108 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.6 (78) | 26.6 (52) |
| Rush Rate | 57% (41) | 51% (112) |
Florida vs Florida State Pick & Prediction
Seemingly everything is going against Florida State at this point in the year, while Florida can’t seem to do any wrong.
The Seminoles can’t muster much of anything on offense, and their defense is most susceptible to the pass. I expect Florida to let go of the reins more on Lagway and let him fling the ball around the Swamp to take advantage of the weak Florida State secondary.
Florida State hasn’t scored over 16 points against an FBS team in North America this year, and I don’t think that changes in Kromenhoek’s second career start.
The Gators will keep their foot on the gas and try to embarrass their rival as badly as possible.
Pick: Florida -16.5
Florida vs Florida State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 30 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
The Florida Gators head to Tallahassee on Saturday to take on the Florida State Seminoles in an in-state rivalry game at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
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