Florida vs. Georgia Odds
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -115 | 49.5 -108o / -112u | +450 |
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -105 | 49.5 -108o / -112u | -630 |
I'm headed back to the Georgia fade train, which has cashed six out of seven times to start 2023.
Coming into the season, I thought Georgia might be very complacent on a weekly basis after what I heard coming out of camp. It also just made logical sense for a back-to-back national champion that knew it had an absolute cupcake schedule, especially for an SEC team.
Fortunately, I had a sneaky suspicion Kirby Smart would get his kids up from the start against an undefeated Kentucky team between the hedges in prime time after almost losing to Auburn.
Well, even after the bye week in Jacksonville for a hyped rivalry full of hate on both sides, I could see Georgia coming out a bit flat against another team that will take its best shot, like every Georgia opponent will inevitably do this season.
The Bulldogs' advanced metrics obviously all generally look outstanding for one of the most talented FBS rosters, but they've also benefited from a strength of schedule that ranks outside the top 100 nationally.
Even against those significantly inferior opponents, just take a look at the scores at the end of the first quarter:
If you exclude Kentucky, the Dawgs have scored the same number of first-quarter points (24) as their six other opponents for an average score of 4-4 after the first 15 minutes.
That's even worse than it may sound when considering five of those six teams have defenses ranked outside my top 90 nationally.
Unless I truly believe the Bulldogs will come out with their hair on fire in a great spot, I'll assume this will remain a trend until they truly believe they need to bring their A-game from the jump.
And if the Gators can hang around early, I really like their chances to keep this within two touchdowns and wouldn't be surprised if they gave Georgia a semi-sweat late.
In addition to the complacency angle, this is a Georgia team I've also had lower than the market from a pure power-ratings perspective since the first week of the season. To me, this team is not close to the level of either national champion club from the past two years.
Not only has Kirby Smart seen a mass exodus of NFL talent, including supremely underrated quarterback Stetson Bennett, but he also replaced offensive coordinator Todd Monken (now with the Ravens) with Mike Bobo, which I believe is a material downgrade.
In regards to Georgia quarterback Carson Beck, his numbers pass the smell test, but again, he's faced a laughable schedule of opposing pass defenses to date.
Plus, he now won't have the nation's best tight end — and maybe best overall weapon — in Brock Bowers, who suffered an injury in his last game against Vanderbilt that will sideline him for a while.
Bowers has hauled in nearly a quarter of Beck's completions in addition to four of his 14 touchdown passes. Georgia will obviously miss the raw production, but Bowers also opened up so much for the rest of the offense with all of the attention he required from opposing defenses.
During his absence, the offense will undoubtedly take a step back and likely take some time to adjust, even if he will be replaced with another talented tight end in Oscar Delp.
Without Bowers, Florida defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong can stick to his roots and come in with an ultra-aggressive game plan.
Armstrong, one of the top young defensive minds in college football — just look at the drop-off at Southern Miss after his departure — will likely bring plenty of exotic blitzes and utilize a heavy dose of simulated pressures to force the inexperienced Beck into a key mistake or two. Based on Beck's splits, that could lead to success.
On the season, he's yet to take a sack when not blitzed, but he has a near 25% Pressure-to-Sack Ratio when blitzed, with two Turnover-Worthy Plays to only one Big-Time Throw.
His average depth of target against the blitz also drops by almost three full yards, as he tends to check down quickly in those situations, which could help Florida limit the issues it has experienced in allowing long catches.
Georgia will still probably connect on quite a few explosive passing plays against the aggressive Gators defense, but I also expect Beck to turn it over for a fourth straight game.
Plus, it helps that Georgia's run game hasn't fully figured it out yet, primarily due to injuries in the backfield and along an offensive line that has dealt with constant reshuffling. We'll see if right tackle Amarius Mims returns, although he'd probably still be on a snap count and not at 100%.
On the other side of the ball, Georgia once again owns one of the stingiest units in FBS. However, it has seen an uptick in explosive plays allowed, doesn't get a ton of pressure and has struggled a bit more than usual against the run.
Those deficiencies were on full display in a one-possession win against a completely one-dimensional and anemic Auburn offense. I'm sure the Gators will look to replicate some of the things that the Tigers did in that game.
Generally speaking, the Florida offense has been better than expected.
Quarterback Graham Mertz has a sky-high 76.2% completion percentage along with 12 touchdown passes to just two interceptions.
Despite some offensive line reshuffling of their own, this rebuilt Gators offense is getting more comfortable in Billy Napier's scheme with each passing week.
I expect Florida to use a high frequency of 12 personnel to attack the Georgia run defense with a heavier dose of the explosive Trevor Etienne on standard downs and Montrell Johnson in short-yardage situations.
The Gators have the highest Success Rate of any team in that personnel grouping, which would give them maximum bulk up front while keeping all of their best skill position players on the field in Etienne, stud wideout Ricky Pearsall, pass-catching tight end Arlis Boardingham and emerging freshman wide receiver Eugene Wilson, who could also provide juice in the running game with some end-arounds and other looks.
Mertz may even use his legs to convert a few third downs to extend drives, which similarly athletic quarterbacks have done quite a bit against Georgia this season.
However, the formula, in my opinion, is more runs in heavy personnel and an expanded short-passing attack, which can both work against Georgia. Then, you just hope for a couple of explosive Etienne runs and connected deep shots to Pearsall off play action.
Not only do I show value in this number, but I like some of the matchups for a Florida team that should play up in this spot. With the offense continuing to improve and Armstrong getting two weeks to prepare for a Bowers-less defense, I like the Gators to keep this within two scores in a game that will be played at a super slow pace, which will limit the number of possessions under the new clock rules.
Lastly, Billy Napier has thrived in the underdog role historically and has demonstrated he'll go to extreme lengths to keep scoring until the bitter end when trailing.
Hopefully, that won't be necessary for the cover, but it's nice having Backdoor Billy in your back pocket if Florida trails by three scores late in the fourth quarter.
Flor what it's worth, Napier owns a ridiculous career 19-6 ATS record (76.0%) as an underdog, covering by over seven points per game. That includes a perfect 3-0 ATS mark against ranked SEC foes during his short time in Gainesville.
