Kentucky vs Florida Odds
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
Florida and Kentucky will meet in the Bluegrass for a noon kick at Kroger Field on Saturday to determine which team could potentially pose the biggest threat to Georgia as a long-shot sleeper in the SEC East.
The Wildcats come into this game with a perfect 4-0 record, but they haven't really been tested with a schedule that has included Akron, Ball State, Eastern Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Meanwhile, the Gators do have one loss on the season but have faced a much tougher schedule, having split against two ranked power opponents in Utah and Tennessee.
In the offseason, both teams hit the portal to find new quarterbacks after losing Will Levis and Anthony Richardson to the NFL.
Interestingly enough, Graham Mertz was originally linked to Kentucky but ended up in Gainesville after Kentucky chose Devin Leary. Which team made the right decision? That may be decided on Saturday in Lexington.
The Gators had completely dominated this series for decades until they saw their 31-game winning streak over the Cats end in 2018. Kentucky will now look for its first three-game winning streak in the series since the Korean War.
So, which team has the edge in this divisional showdown? Let's take a closer look at each team before breaking it down from a betting perspective.
Kentucky Wildcats
The Devin Leary experiment has been a mixed bag so far. He's definitely had his moments, but there have been some easy missed throws and bouts of inconsistency as he works through a mechanical issue that seems to have stemmed from the pectoral injury he suffered last year.
Last season, the Kentucky offensive line really held back the offense after losing a number of key staples of the "Big Blue Wall." This unit had a chance to be one of the most improved in the country, which is why many, including myself, were very high on the Cats coming into the season.
They're definitely improved up front, but they have also dealt with an injury to team captain Kenneth Horsey, who got hurt in the season opener, as well as some other shuffling in the interior.
Horsey and blocking tight end Josh Kattus have a shot to both return on Saturday, which would provide a big boost to the protection and run blocking up front.
The defense lost a number of key pieces from last year's team, but this is always a rock-solid unit under defensive coordinator Brad White.
It's pretty difficult to get a great read on where it stands given the soft schedule to date, but the secondary looks like it may be better than advertised.
As always, opponents won't get many explosive plays or have an easy time running the ball against Kentucky. As a result, you'll have to methodically drive the field, executing with short to intermediary passes without making mistakes.
Florida Gators
So far, Mertz has been solid but unspectacular for a rush-first Florida offense that relies on the outstanding running back duo of Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson Jr.
The Gators want to lean on those backs and a talented offensive line that should finally be at full strength after dealing with some recent injuries and suspensions.
The passing attack has been very efficient, with Mertz leading the SEC in completion percentage, but there isn't much explosiveness.
When Mertz does drop back to pass, he's super reliant on one primary target: Ricky Pearsall, who leads the team with 26 catches and 362 receiving yards. Their second-leading receiver has just 12 grabs for 104 yards.
On the other side of the ball, Florida's defense has been the story so far this year, showing significant strides under defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong, who transformed the defense at Southern Miss before Billy Napier snagged him away from Hattiesburg in the offseason.
He's one of the best young coordinators in the country, so the improvement shouldn't come as too much of a shock.
The Gators defense leads the country in Rush Success Rate and has been very productive across the board outside of allowing far too many explosive plays, which has been the norm under Armstrong's aggressive scheme.
The secondary still has some question marks, but Jason Marshall is a lockdown cornerback who could get some first-round buzz next season.
Kentucky vs Florida
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida and Kentucky match up statistically:
Florida Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 38 | 39 |  |
| Line Yards | 50 | 46 | |
| Pass Success | 17 | 10 | |
| Havoc | 67 | 71 | |
| Finishing Drives | 47 | 11 | |
| Quality Drives | 44 | 28 | |
Kentucky Offense vs. Florida Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 71 | 1 | |
| Line Yards | 119 | 6 | |
| Pass Success | 81 | 34 | |
| Havoc | 86 | 96 | |
| Finishing Drives | 43 | 38 | |
| Quality Drives | 56 | 15 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 19 | 72 |
| PFF Coverage | 53 | 7 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 40 | 15 |
| Middle 8 | 86 | 50 |
| Seconds per Play | 31.0 (128) | 30.1 (115) |
| Rush Rate | 57.0% (45) | 43.6% (117) |
Kentucky vs Florida
Betting Pick & Prediction
Yes, Kentucky has played nobody and benefited from turnovers. That definitely creates uncertainty in trying to truly rate the Wildcats.
While Florida has two quality data points, I believe the Gators come in a bit overvalued, living off of a home win over a Tennessee team I don't think that highly of this season.
I believe one can trust what we've seen from both defenses to date. So, in a game that profiles as a complete grinder where points will come at a premium, this handicap comes down to which quarterback you trust more.
At under a field goal at home against a Florida team that has had major road woes of late, I'm siding with Leary and the Cats.
Leary has missed some easy throws this season against subpar competition but has generally played better as the games have gone on. And I don't think Florida is capable of running away early.
Expect the Wildcats to load the box in order to take away the run, forcing Mertz to beat them through the air.
Mertz, who has never really demonstrated he can do just that against a high-quality defense, will have some success with the quick passing attack, but I don't trust him to continuously drive the ball down the field without making key mistakes against an always-reliable and opportunistic UK defense.
There's a reason why Florida sits at 116th nationally in third-down conversion percentage.
While the Florida offense has lacked explosiveness, ranking 121st in that department, Kentucky's offense has lived on explosive plays. The Wildcats rank No. 1 in the country in that area, albeit against weaker competition.
That spells bad news for a Florida defense that has one primary weakness this season — stopping explosive plays. It ranks dead last among 133 FBS teams against explosives.
I believe this first vs. worst matchup will ultimately decide the contest, with Kentucky hitting a few explosive plays in a game where both teams will struggle to consistently move the chains.
