Every couple of years, a streak of Tigers visit The Swamp to battle a congregation of Gators.
This season, the 21st-ranked LSU Tigers (6-3, 3-2 SEC) take on the Florida Gators (4-5, 2-4) in Gainesville, Florida. LSU has come out on top in six of the last eight meetings of this storied rivalry, and now both programs enter this battle hobbled.
The Tigers got embarrassed on home turf against Alabama, losing 42-13, while Florida was missing its quarterback last week in Austin, falling 49-17.
Let’s dive into my weekly SGP and cash in on this +426 parlay I built on FanDuel for Florida vs. LSU.
Florida vs. LSU Odds
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 55.5 -115o / -105u | +138 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 55.5 -115o / -105u | -170 |
- Spread: LSU -3.5 · Florida +3.5
- Over/Under: 55.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Moneyline: LSU -170 · Florida +138
Florida vs. LSU Picks, Predictions, Same-Game Parlay
- Florida +3.5
- Over 55.5
- Aaron Anderson 50+ Yards Receiving
Parlay Odds: +426
Please always remember to bet responsibly. SGPs are long shots for a reason.
Spread: Florida +3.5
This was a little dicey since we didn’t know the status of DJ Lagway. However, the freshman quarterback is no longer listed as questionable and is ready to go.
I am extremely down on LSU as a program right now, and I haven’t been more down on Brian Kelly than I have now (and I never liked him as a coach).
What I saw last week against Alabama was an unmitigated disaster in Death Valley. Along with that, he continued to play his starters when the Tigers were down 35 points in the waking minutes of the game.
LSU has proven to be terrible against mobile quarterbacks, and while Lagway isn’t known for being a dual-threat, he can take off if need be.
What else? LSU’s secondary hasn’t been very good either. Especially on the road, LSU has allowed, on average, 226 passing yards per game and ranks 121st in Pass Play Success Rate allowed.
Lagway hasn’t thrown the ball a whole lot in his first season, but he’s managed to be halfway decent when he does.
Over/Under: Over 55.5
Defense hasn’t been the calling card for either program, and it’s even worse for Florida since there are loads of injuries in its secondary, including Jason Marshall.
Even though I don’t foresee LSU making this a blowout, I do like Garrett Nussmeier, who has helped this program achieve an eighth-ranked Pass Play Success Rate. His play has dropped off in the second half of the season, but it’s hard to ignore the talent.
He has gotten himself in a lot of trouble lately, where 80% of his total interceptions have occurred in the past five games.
Nonetheless, I still see the potential and he has exceptional options through the air in Kyren Lacy and Aaron Anderson, who have combined for 11 touchdowns. Either way, Nussmeier is going to throw the ball a lot. He leads the SEC in passes attempted and completed.
Florida hasn’t exactly developed a great reputation in the Billy Napier era, and the injuries are killing the Gators right now.
However, after last week against Texas, they may have found a bright spot in running back Ja’Kobi Jackson, who ran for 100 yards.
For this game to go over, the Gators will need to dominate the run game, with LSU airing it out a bunch — which I can see happening.
Player Prop: Aaron Anderson 50+ Receiving Yards
It feels like Lacy gets most of the attention out of LSU’s corps, but I think Anderson is the most dynamic.
Not only that, but he’s the more consistent one. In his first full season, he leads the Tigers with 16.4 yards per catch and is nearly catching up to Lacy in yards gained.
Given how banged up Florida’s secondary is, this is the perfect scenario for Anderson to go off.
The reason why I’m setting the bar so low at 50 yards, though, is that he hasn’t reached that number in two of the past three games. However, before that, he never reached under 60 yards in the first six games.
With Lacy leading the team in yards, receptions and touchdowns, it’s only natural that Florida will hone in on him, leaving Anderson plenty of opportunities for one-on-one plays.
