There’s something about a car wreck where you can’t help but stop and look.
If that's what you're into, you’re in for a treat with Florida and Mississippi State at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN on Saturday.
No coach is on a hotter seat than Florida’s Billy Napier. The Gators (1-2) have dropped seven consecutive games against Power Five teams, and there isn’t a reprieve after they leave Starkville.
Jeff Lebby’s first year with the Bulldogs has a similar tenor to the happenings in Gainesville. Mississippi State (1-2) looks like one of the worst Power Four teams and is fresh off a blowout loss at home to Toledo.
The Gators are a six-point favorite on the spread while the total sits at 58.5. Meanwhile, Florida is -225 on the moneyline.
With both teams scrambling to find some semblance of success, which one will reign supreme? Here's my Florida vs. Mississippi State prediction and pick.
Florida vs Mississippi State Prediction
- Florida vs Mississippi State Pick: Florida -6
My Florida vs Mississippi State best bet is on the Gators spread with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Florida vs Mississippi State Odds
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +185 |
- Florida vs Mississippi State Point Spread: Florida -6 (-110) · Mississippi State +6 (-110)
- Florida vs Mississippi State Total: Over/Under 58.5
- Florida vs Mississippi State Moneyline: Florida -225 · Mississippi State +185
Florida vs Mississippi State Preview
Florida Gators Betting Preview: Billy Napier's Last Dance?
Congratulations are in order for Billy Napier, who managed to survive another week. The Gators fell into a 20-0 hole at home against a Texas A&M team that started its backup quarterback.
Napier’s employment status is on as thin of ice as possible, but this week could be his last win as Florida's head coach. For that to happen, however, the Gators need improved play at the quarterback position, where they continue to rotate veteran Graham Mertz and freshman DJ Lagway.
Mertz has seen a drop in accuracy this season and has only one touchdown through his first three games. Lagway has a higher ceiling than Mertz, but his inexperience is evident with some wreckless throws, including three interceptions.
But more important than quarterback play this week will be what Florida can do running the ball. Mississippi State has one of the worst run defenses in the Power 4 and was gashed for 346 rushing yards by Arizona State. The Gators were limited to just 52 rushing yards last week against the Aggies, but if there were ever a week for Montrell Johnson and Co. to pop off, it would be now.
Arguably, an even bigger issue plaguing Florida this season has been ineptitude on defense. The Gators are the only team in the SEC allowing more than 400 yards of offense per game, and a third of that data comes from a matchup with Samford.
Florida allowed 310 rushing yards to Texas A&M last week, a team that was held to just 3.8 yards per carry against Notre Dame earlier in the season. Generating Havoc has been a big issue for Florida, which ranks just 100th nationally. The Gators sit in the bottom third of the SEC in both sacks and tackles for loss.
Florida’s secondary has also struggled despite only allowing 178 passing yards last week – a product of the Aggies nursing a big early lead. The Gators are last in the conference with 235.7 passing yards allowed per game and 119th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview: Can't Run The Ball, Can't Play Defense
The vibes aren’t much better in Starkville, where Jeff Lebby’s first season has been just as rocky.
Expectations weren’t super lofty for Lebby’s Year 1, but a 3-0 start to the season wasn’t an outlandish idea, instead of where the Bulldogs currently sit at 1-2.
Lebby was expected to bring an offensive prowess to town, and early results have been tepid at best. Baylor transfer quarterback Blake Shapen has completed over 70% of his passes and owns a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Still, his success hasn't translated into enough points to offset Mississippi State’s porous defense.
The Mississippi State ground game is one of only seven Power 4 units rushing for fewer than 100 yards per game. That number even includes the inflation of a 203-yard outing against Eastern Kentucky to start the season.
Only Florida has been worse among SEC programs defensively. The Bulldogs are the worst in the nation at generating Havoc and have recorded 10 tackles for loss, five fewer than the next closest in-conference team.
Florida vs Mississippi State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida and Mississippi State match up statistically:
Florida Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 30 | 112 | |
| Line Yards | 101 | 89 | |
| Pass Success | 67 | 64 |  |
| Havoc | 104 | 133 | |
| Finishing Drives | 46 | 97 | |
| Quality Drives | 99 | 106 | |
Mississippi State Offense vs. Florida Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 74 | 85 | |
| Line Yards | 63 | 79 | |
| Pass Success | 47 | 119 | |
| Havoc | 103 | 100 | |
| Finishing Drives | 63 | 63 | |
| Quality Drives | 86 | 96 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 35 | 71 |
| PFF Coverage | 62 | 103 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 1 | 49 |
| Middle 8 | 103 | 116 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.2 (44) | 21.7 (3) |
| Rush Rate | 51% (82) | 50% (97) |
Florida vs Mississippi State Pick & Prediction
Misery loves company, but someone has to win.
Both teams realize that they won’t have much of a better opportunity to record another win this season, but I think the Gators have the clear edge.
From a pure talent standpoint, the Gators have the upper hand. While that talent has yet to show itself on the field, Mississippi State’s defense provides a prime chance for the Florida offense to shine.
While Florida has shown a mediocre run game to start the year, Mississippi State’s front seven is horrific. And the best way to take the spotlight away from the Mertz-Lagway problem is to pound the rock.
I expect the Gators to get out to an early lead and then slow things down to suck the energy out of StarkVegas and silence the cowbells.
Florida only needs to win by a touchdown to cover, something I think they’re more than capable of doing before heading into the bye.
Pick: Florida -6
How to Watch Florida vs Mississippi State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Florida vs Mississippi State Betting Trends
- Florida is 0-3 ATS but 1-0 ATS as a favorite.
- Mississippi State is 1-2 ATS and 0-1 ATS as an underdog.
- Both teams are 2-1 to the over.
