The Ole Miss Rebels kept their national championship hopes alive with a dominant 28-10 victory over Georgia in their most recent game. Still, at 8-2, the Rebels cannot afford another loss if they hope to reach the College Football Playoff.
Off a bye week, Ole Miss will travel to Gainesville to take on a Florida team it can't overlook.
Though 5-5, Florida put a scare into Georgia before quarterback DJ Lagway went down with an injury. Lagway returned last week against LSU and helped the Gators pull off the 27-16 upset.
The Gators are once again a home underdog, and I'm backing them with my Florida vs. Ole Miss picks and same-game parlay for college football Week 13.
Florida vs. Ole Miss Odds
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | +345 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | -455 |
Florida vs. Ole Miss, Picks, Predictions, Same-Game Parlay
- Jaxson Dart 275+ Passing Yards (-192)
- Tre Harris 90+ Receiving Yards (-122)
- Elijhah Badger Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Florida +14.5 (-158)
Parlay Odds: +538 via FanDuel
Ole Miss Player Props: Jaxson Dart 275+ Passing Yards & Tre Harris 90+ Receiving Yards
Jaxson Dart is third in the FBS with 3,409 passing yards. He is also third with an 86.2 QBR and has 22 touchdowns against just four interceptions. Three weeks ago, Dart set school records with 515 passing yards and six touchdown passes at Arkansas.
While he's not quite that prolific every week, Dart has thrown for 275 passing yards in eight of 10 games this season. That includes six 300-yard games and another with 261 yards.
Florida ranks 92nd in the FBS in passing yards allowed at 237 yards per game. The Gators have allowed three quarterbacks (Cam Ward, Carson Beck and Quinn Ewers) to go over 300 yards this season and Garrett Nussmeier went for 260 last week. Florida is also 96th in Passing Success Rate Allowed.
Dart didn't throw for 200 yards against Georgia, but had just 22 pass attempts as the Rebels were up comfortably. He also did not have his top receiver, Tre Harris, in that game. Harris has battled injuries over the past few weeks, but will return this week.
Despite those injuries, Harris is still fifth in the FBS with 987 receiving yards. He has five 100-yard games this season and another with 94 yards. When healthy, Harris is often Dart's first read and has six games with seven or more receptions. He also has a 40-yard reception in five games.
Additionally, Ole Miss will have not starting running back Henry Parrish Jr. for this game, and backup Ulysses Bentley IV is averaging just 4.3 yards per carry.
If head coach Lane Kiffin opts for more of a pass-heavy approach, Dart and Harris will both reach these lines.
Florida Player Prop: Elijhah Badger Over 58.5 Receiving Yards
Though Florida returned Graham Mertz at quarterback, Lagway, a five-star recruit, was always viewed as the future of the program.
After Mertz suffered a season-ending injury, the future became the present and Lagway has started three of Florida's past four games. In the two games he finished, Lagway went over 200 yards against Kentucky and LSU, and Elijhah Badger has a beneficiary of that production.
Badger went over 100 yards against both Kentucky (148) and LSU (131) with over half of Lagway's passing yards going to his top receiver. As a double-digit underdog, Florida may be passing often if it is trailing.
With Lagway's line at 221.5 passing yards, I believe there is far more value on Badger, who has exceeded this line by over 70 yards twice in the past three weeks. That leaves room for regression, but also the chance to go over this line in just a few plays.
Badger is averaging 23 yards per reception and has a 25-yard reception in six games this season.
If Badger gets three receptions (which he has done in seven of nine games), he can clear this number. He also is +320 to go over 100 yards if you want to add a little more juice to this parlay.
Spread: Florida +14.5 (-158)
In the first year of the expanded SEC, Florida has had to play one of the country's most daunting schedules. It also has had a coach on the hot seat in Billy Napier.
Despite that, Napier hasn't lost the support of his team or athletic department as AD Scott Stricklin announced that the coach will return next season.
Napier has led the Gators to four wins in their past seven games, but they are also 6-1 against the spread in that span. That includes a five-game stretch against Tennessee, Georgia, Texas and LSU. Tennessee, Georgia and Texas are in the top 12 of the latest College Football Playoff rankings while LSU was No. 16 before Florida pulled the upset.
Against Georgia, Florida built a first-half lead before Lagway injured his hamstring.
Both Lagway and Badger didn't play against Texas and Florida was blown out. Florida likely doesn't win in Austin regardless and Georgia has been better in the second half for most of the season.
However, one thing is clear: Florida is a tough out when Lagway is the signal-caller.
Now, the Gators get a chance to pull another upset in The Swamp.
With the stakes high for Ole Miss, it will be highly motivated this week and could use some style points to impress the CFP committee. It is also getting its top receiver back. With that said, Ole Miss is still just 2-8 ATS this season.
Florida has been the better bet against the number this season.
However, with this parlay, we have the luxury of moving the spread back and still getting over +500 odds. I expect Florida to stay within two touchdowns at home, so +14.5 is a number I'm comfortable with as the final leg of this parlay.
