One team enters this matchup riding high.
The other arrives at a crossroads with an offense that hasn’t inspired much confidence in recent weeks.
Naturally, the former is the Florida Gators (3-2) and the latter is the Tennessee Vols (4-1), who meet on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Gators hit the road for their second time in conference play on a two-game win streak. Billy Napier has made it to the midpoint of the season, and this week’s SEC discussion has been relatively free of any hot-seat discussions.
Meanwhile, Tennessee dropped its first game of the season last week at Arkansas, and questions are beginning to arise surrounding the vaunted Josh Heupel offense and quarterback Nico Iamaleava.
Tennessee is favored by 15.5 points on the spread for this game, though, and is -700 on the moneyline. Also, the total is set at 55.5.
Read on for my Florida vs. Tennessee predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
Florida vs Tennessee Odds, Lines, Pick
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -112 | 55.5 -112o / -108u | +440 |
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -108 | 55.5 -112o / -108u | -600 |
- Florida vs Tennessee spread: Tennessee -14.5
- Florida vs Tennessee over/under: 55.5 points
- Florida vs Tennessee moneyline: Tennessee -600
- Florida vs Tennessee pick: Under 55.5
My Florida vs Tennessee bet is on the under, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Florida vs Tennessee Preview
Florida Football
Don’t look now, but the Gators have built a winning streak.
Florida has strung together a pair of wins over SEC bottom-dweller Mississippi State and in-state foe UCF to keep head coach Napier on life support.
Perhaps even more surprising than the two wins is the level of quarterback play the Gators have received. While Florida continues to split reps between Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway – a strategy that doesn’t usually predicate success – the duo has combined to complete 49 of their 56 passes during the mini-win streak with four touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Florida, which ranks 20th nationally in Pass Success Rate, is one of only two teams in the country with two quarterbacks who have over 600 yards passing this season (Texas). The pair spreads the love, with eight different Gators recording at least one receiving touchdown.
The Gators run a fairly balanced offense, but the relatively mediocre running game will see its toughest test to date against one of the strongest front sevens in the country. Florida ranks just 77th in Line Yards and will be opposed by a top-10 rushing defense.
On the other side of the ball, Florida's defense hasn’t quite held up its end of the bargain. The Gators rank 100th or worse in opposing quarterback rating, run defense and third-down conversion rate.
Something to watch for in this matchup is how the Florida secondary holds up against explosive pass plays. No SEC team has allowed more 20-plus yard passes than the Gators, and while Heupel hasn’t fully taken the training wheels off Nico Iamaleava, the freshman quarterback certainly has the arm strength to expose such a defense.
Tennessee Football
Which Tennessee is closer to the real Tennessee?
Will we get the Volunteer team from the first three weeks that outscored opponents 191-13 and averaged 639 yards of offense per game? Or will we get the Tennessee team from the last two weeks that has outscored its opposition 39-34 and is averaging 337.5 yards per game?
The obvious caveat is Tennessee played two of the SEC’s better defenses in Oklahoma and Arkansas in the past two games, but the usual excitement of a Josh Heupel offense with a heralded freshman quarterback has been lacking.
Iamaleava played the worst game of his young career against the Razorbacks, completing fewer than 60% of his passes for the first time and finishing with a career-low 158 yards passing.
More damning than those statistics was a lack of confidence in playcalling and/or the type of throws he was making. 25 of Iamaleava’s 29 passes were thrown within 19 yards of the line of scrimmage, and he only completed one pass for over 20 yards.
The freshman quarterback looked like a freshman. Will Heupel let him throw more against a Florida pass defense that ranks 13th in the SEC? Or, will he remain conservative and opt to keep the ball on the ground more often than not, especially against a weak Florida run defense?
While the Tennessee offense has stumbled, its defense has done nothing but. With one of the nastiest front sevens in the country, the Tennessee defense ranks among the top 10 teams nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed, Defensive Line Yards and Havoc rate.
The Volunteers are one of only five FBS teams allowing single-digit points per game, and only Ohio State allows fewer yards per game than Tennessee’s 227.6.
Florida vs Tennessee Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida and Tennessee match up statistically:
Florida Offense vs. Tennessee Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 32 | 1 | |
| Line Yards | 77 | 6 | |
| Pass Success | 20 | 36 | |
| Havoc | 65 | 6 | |
| Finishing Drives | 11 | 2 | |
| Quality Drives | 76 | 3 | |
Tennessee Offense vs. Florida Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 68 | 109 | |
| Line Yards | 23 | 90 | |
| Pass Success | 8 | 86 | |
| Havoc | 29 | 84 | |
| Finishing Drives | 39 | 53 | |
| Quality Drives | 12 | 87 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 90 | 16 |
| PFF Coverage | 55 | 40 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 5 | 25 |
| Middle 8 | 69 | 4 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.4 (68) | 24.5 (21) |
| Rush Rate | 53% (66) | 62% (24) |
Florida vs Tennessee Prediction
In hindsight, Tennessee’s wins over NC State and Oklahoma are looking less and less impressive.
Are the Vols paper sharks?
While their offense has regressed in recent weeks, that’s to be expected with a freshman quarterback. It should only improve with time, but I’m just not sure we see Heupel take the restrictor plate off Iamaleava just yet.
I think Tennessee will keep it vanilla against the Gators for another week, especially with a vested interest in not wanting to show next week's opponent — Alabama — anything new and innovative.
And although Florida’s offense has looked improved in recent weeks, Tennessee is on a completely different level than those of UCF and Mississippi State. The Florida offensive line will be in for a long day against the Volunteer rush, making points hard to come by for the Gators.
With the Florida offense halted and a milquetoast Tennessee offensive game plan, I think there’s plenty of value in a total that is well over 50 points.
The Vols will put Napier right back in the hot-seat spotlight, but it won’t be by way of a high-scoring affair.
Pick: Under 55.5
Florida vs Tennessee Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How to Watch
| Location: | Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Florida takes on Tennessee on Saturday, Oct. 12, at Neyland Stadium at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Florida vs Tennessee Betting Trends
- Tennessee is 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS.
- Tennessee games are 3-2 to the over.
- Florida is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS.
- Florida games are 3-2 to the over.
Florida vs Tennessee Weather
