While another SEC matchup will get all the attention in Week 11, the scene in Austin will be bananas when Florida (4-4) travels to face Texas (7-1).
The Longhorns have had two weeks to prepare after a struggle through the past two games. Head coach Steve Sarkisian saw his team get outplayed physically in the trenches in a loss against Georgia in Week 8. Texas rebounded in Nashville the following week, surviving an upset with a field goal victory over Vanderbilt.
Enter the Gators, playing some of the most surprising football of any SEC team over the past month. Florida posted double-digit victories over Kentucky and Central Florida, losing to Tennessee on the road by just a possession.
A win for the Longhorns keeps the program on track for the SEC Championship game. Florida enters the game needing two wins for bowl season and a chance to eclipse all oddsmakers' preseason expectations from a win total perspective.
Texas is a 21.5-point favorite with a total hovering around 48.
Let's dive into my Florida vs. Texas prediction and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 9.
Florida Gators vs. Texas Longhorns Prediction
My Florid-Texas best bet is on the Longhorns to go over their team total, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Florida vs. Texas Odds, Spread, Betting Lines
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21.5 -108 | 47.5 -105o / -115u | +1100 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21.5 -112 | 47.5 -105o / -115u | -2100 |
- Florida vs. Texas Spread: Texas -21.5 · Florida +21.5
- Florida vs. Texas Over/Under: 47.5 Total Points
- Florida vs. Texas Moneyline: Texas ML -2100 · Florida ML +1100
Florida vs. Texas College Football Week 11 Preview
Florida Gators Betting Preview
In the months leading up to the 2024 season for the Gators, there was one variable that could not be ignored: This is the most diabolical second-half schedule of any team in college football.
After a covering effort against Georgia last week, the Gators will now take to the road to face Texas with a roster that is full of injuries. There is little onboarding time for the new faces in new positions, as the Gators will follow up Week 11 with LSU, Ole Miss, and Florida State.
Napier had good news with respect to quarterback DJ Lagway, indicating there was a "pathway to return."
The world will wait for the Friday availability report from the Gators, as running back Montrell Johnson Jr. could also be out against the Longhorns.
The Florida offense could be without its top two quarterbacks, top two running backs, and wide receiver Eugene Wilson III, who underwent hip surgery.
Quarterbacks coach Ryan O'Hara will be responsible for getting walk-on Yale transfer quarterback Aidan Warner ready for Texas after three turnover-worthy plays against Georgia.
Injuries are also an issue on the defensive side of the ball, specifically key contributors in the secondary.
Corner Jason Marshall Jr. was the highest-graded coverage defender for the Gators defense but suffered a season-ending injury against Georgia.
Starting defensive backs Devin Moore and Dijon Robinson were also injured against the Bulldogs. Napier indicated freshmen Jameer Grimsley and Teddy Foster are the primary options to start at the cornerback in Austin.
Texas Longhorns Betting Preview
The Longhorns are not immune to injuries, as starting safety Derek Williams Jr. was lost for the season after the victory against Oklahoma.
A pair of freshmen, Xavier Filsaime and Jordon Johnson-Rubell, have filled in at the safety position, each posting subpar grades in coverage for Texas.
Defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski fields one of the best defenses against the pass regarding efficiency, but Texas has fallen to 66th in forcing contested catches.
There is positive news on the injury front on the offensive end, as explosive wideout Isaiah Bond returned to practice after missing play against Vanderbilt.
The Alabama transfer averages 2.3 yards per route run, which lightly trails the Horns wideout on the other side of the field in Ryan Wingo. The biggest question will come in the play from quarterback Quinn Ewers, who threw two interceptions against Vanderbilt.
The two takeaways from the Commodores' defense were not graded as turnover-worthy throws per PFF, a positive sign after recording seven mistakes against Georgia.
The game plan against Vanderbilt was low-risk, using wide receiver screens and flares en route to Ewers' lowest average depth of target on the season at 5.4 yards.
One area that has not faltered this season is red-zone productivity, with Texas ranking as a top-25 team in finishing drives. Texas has scored 29 touchdowns in 34 red-zone trips, one of the highest touchdown rates in the country.
Texas vs. Florida Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas and Florida match up statistically:
Florida Offense vs. Texas Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 31 | 19 | |
| Line Yards | 90 | 25 | |
| Pass Success | 55 | 3 | |
| Havoc | 102 | 13 | |
| Finishing Drives | 49 | 4 | |
| Quality Drives | 98 | 2 | |
Texas Offense vs. Florida Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 25 | 113 | |
| Line Yards | 73 | 82 | |
| Pass Success | 43 | 34 | |
| Havoc | 82 | 70 | |
| Finishing Drives | 23 | 41 | |
| Quality Drives | 32 | 56 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 78 | 49 |
| PFF Coverage | 74 | 1 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 4 | 108 |
| Middle 8 | 48 | 4 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.5 (79) | 25.5 (34) |
| Rush Rate | 56% (50) | 50% (90) |
Florida vs. Texas Best Bet, Picks
Sarkisian indicated that the preparation for the Texas defense would be against the Florida system and not a particular quarterback.
Shifts, motion and formation adjustments pre-snap are familiar to the Texas head coach, who limited Napier's offense at Louisiana to 18 points in the 2021 season opener.
With limitations at the Gators' skill positions, there is every expectation that a Texas defense that ranks 13th in defensive Havoc will overpower a depleted Gators offense that is outside the top 100 in Havoc allowed.
The bigger handicap may come on the offensive side of the ball for Texas, as Ewers will look to overcome a string of bad starts.
The Gators are down multiple players and forced to play freshmen in a secondary that already ranked 122nd in creating contested catches for opposing offenses.
With Bond and Wingo both expected to line up at wideout, there could be more flares and wide receiver screens against a pair of freshman corners for Florida.
Texas is second nationally in creating a quality drive, an indicator that scoring chances could be plentiful.
The Longhorns are among the best red-zone touchdown scorers in the nation, which is a consistent issue for a Gators defense that is 70th in red-zone touchdowns allowed.
Pick: Texas Team Total Over 34.5 or Better
Florida vs. Texas Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch, Location
| Location: | Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 9 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
Florida vs. Texas will be played in Austin, Texas, on Saturday, Nov. 9 at 12 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ABC.
Florida vs. Texas Betting Trends
- 70% of bets and 47% of the money are on Florida to cover the spread
- 95% of bets and 95% of the money on the moneyline are on Texas to win outright
- 61% of bets and 70% of the money are on the under
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Florida vs. Texas Weather
