The Duke Blue Devils (5-1, 1-1 ACC) and Florida State Seminoles (1-4, 1-4) battle at Wallace Wade Stadium as Friday night lights make their way to the Atlantic Coast Conference in Week 8.
The Blue Devils enter this game needing just 1 win to secure a bowl bid in their 1st season under new head coach Manny Diaz.
Meanwhile, the Seminoles have struggled after the banner year in 2023, owning a 1-5 record overall. Florida State is a 3-point underdog at home against Duke, which would be a first in the 22 meetings between the two schools if the line closes with Duke as the favorite.
With the struggles of both offenses, I’m not expecting many points in this one, but I do believe this gives us great betting value.
So, let’s make a Duke vs. Florida State prediction and college football pick for Friday, Oct. 18.
Florida State Seminoles vs Duke Blue Devils Prediction
- Florida State vs Duke Pick: Florida State Team Total Under 20.5
My Florida State-Duke best bet is on the Seminoles to go under their team total, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Florida State vs Duke Odds, Spread, Line
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -102 | 42.5 -110 / -110 | +125 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 / -110 | -150 |
- Florida State vs Duke Spread: Florida State +2.5 · Duke -2.5
- Florida State vs Duke Over/Under: 42.5 Points
- Florida State vs Duke Moneyline: Florida State +125 · Duke -150
Florida State Football vs Duke Football Preview
Florida State Seminoles Betting Preview: Trying to Save a Lost Season
If you want to know how bad this season has been, the media relations department at FSU released the weekly game notes. One of the four “Numbers to Know” on the first page highlights the 16 punts of 50-plus yards by Alex Mastromanno.
I’m not here to disrespect punters. However, I have a feeling this would not have been one of the highlights during the undefeated season a year ago.
One thing to be positive about is this has been a spot where Mike Norvell has thrived as a coach. He's 9-3 in his career coming off an in-season bye week.
If you include season openers, non-Saturday games and bowls, his teams are 27-12 with more than seven days to prepare for a contest.
The other hope is that the extra time to prepare should only help the quarterback change to Brock Glenn. It's Norvell's last roll of the dice to try to save this season.
Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview: Strong Start in Durham
On the opposite end of the spectrum from FSU, this has been an excellent start to the season for Duke in Diaz’s debut campaign.
This is the Blue Devils’ second straight season with a 5-1 start. This marks the 25th time in school history Duke has done so and the first in back-to-back years since 2014-15.
One of the keys to the strong start has been how Duke has finished games, outscoring opponents, 40-20, in the fourth quarter.
Diaz’s squad has also been on the right side of closing out close games. Duke is tied for the ACC lead in one-score victories with three.
Teams can go a full season before this trend of close victories corrects itself the following year. If that's the case for Duke, the Blue Devils need to take advantage and find a way to make a bowl game.
Florida State vs Duke Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida State and Duke match up statistically:
Florida State Offense vs. Duke Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 109 | 39 | |
| Line Yards | 121 | 23 | |
| Pass Success | 129 | 6 | |
| Havoc | 127 | 10 | |
| Finishing Drives | 122 | 21 | |
| Quality Drives | 130 | 16 | |
Duke Offense vs. Florida State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 122 | 86 | |
| Line Yards | 114 | 78 | |
| Pass Success | 75 | 125 | |
| Havoc | 52 | 92 | |
| Finishing Drives | 104 | 35 | |
| Quality Drives | 119 | 113 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 56 | 80 |
| PFF Coverage | 111 | 18 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 4 | 57 |
| Middle 8 | 119 | 43 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.3 (47) | 23.8 (11) |
| Rush Rate | 44% (121) | 48% (98) |
How to Bet My Florida State vs Duke Pick
If you had told me back in the summer that Duke would be the favorite in this game, I would not have believed you. This is the case, but I’m not ready to lay points with the Blue Devils.
Instead, I do believe in their defense against what has been a poor Florida State offense. So, my best bet is for the Seminoles to fall under their team total of 20.5 at FanDuel, which I would play down to 17.5.
I would recommend waiting until closer to kickoff, as I expect money to come in on FSU. Any movement toward the visitors on the spread should push this team total up, with the hopes of getting to the key number of 21.
You have to go all the way back to the Week 0 loss to Georgia Tech in Ireland to find the only game where FSU cleared this total. We could see some improvements off the bye, but it would take a big turnaround from what we’ve seen so far.
On the year, this Florida State offense ranks outside the top 120 in multiple categories, including Pass Success, Rate Finishing Drives and Quality Drives. The key issue has not been getting anything going through the air.
Even without a solid passing attack, Norvell's team still ranks outside the top 120 in rush rate. This also plays into a strength for Duke.
The Blue Devils rank in the top 10 in the FBS in both Pass Success Allowed and Havoc, while the unit is also ranked 18th in PFF Coverage grade. This is the same defense that's also inside the top 25 in both Finishing Drives Allowed and Quality Drives Allowed.
I’m not going to sell you on Duke’s offense in this spot, so I’ll just oppose the Florida State offense here on Friday night.
Pick: Florida State Team Total Under 20.5 (Play to 17.5)
Florida State vs Duke Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC |
| Date: | Friday, Oct. 18 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Florida State vs Duke Betting Trends
- 77% of bets and 85% of the money are on Duke to cover the spread
- 86% of bets and 87% of the money on the moneyline are on Duke to win outright
- 90% of bets and 96% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Duke vs Florida State Weather
