Let's dive into the Florida State vs. Florida odds and find a prediction and pick for Saturday's ACC/SEC rivalry game.
Florida State Seminoles vs Florida Gators Odds
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 49.5 -105o / -115u | -250 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 49.5 -105o / -115u | +200 |
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Florida State looks to pick itself up off the metaphorical mat when it travels to Gainesville to take on Florida on Saturday night.
The Seminoles were dealt the biggest blow you could imagine, as quarterback Jordan Travis broke his leg against North Alabama and is now done for the season.
The loss of Travis dropped them from No. 4 to No. 5 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, but if they remain undefeated, they should secure a spot in the playoff.
Meanwhile, Florida lost a heartbreaker to Missouri in Columbia and now finds itself in a precarious position.
The Gators are sitting with only five wins on the season, needing one more to reach bowl eligibility. An upset over their in-state rival might just be the ticket to save Billy Napier's job and get Florida headed in the right direction.
Florida State Seminoles
It's hard to quantify just how much Travis means to not only the Florida State offense, but to the team as a whole.
This season, he was averaging 8.5 yards per attempt with 20 touchdowns compared to just two interceptions. He ranked top-20 in EPA and big-time throws, and quite frankly, was the main reason why this offense was operating efficiently.
Backup Tate Rodemaker will now take over for the rest of the season.
Rodemaker has started only one game in his time at Florida State (against Jacksonville State in 2020), but he did come in for a few plays last season when Travis was banged up.
He has over 100 pass attempts in his career, but he really hasn't been that effective. He's averaging 8.5 yards per attempt with nine turnover-worthy plays, which is an incredibly concerning sign.
The other aspect is that a lot of his pass attempts have come in garbage time when the Seminoles are up big. It'll be much different for him starting his first game in four years on the road, trying to keep an undefeated season alive against a bitter rival.
The other concerning sign for the Florida State offense is it really hasn't run the ball that effectively this season. The Seminoles are outside the top 50 in Rushing Success Rate, Offensive Line Yards and EPA/Rush.
They're basically relying on big plays on the ground to get them by, which worked when Travis could bail the team out with his arm. So, this Seminoles offense is going to look much different on Saturday night.
The Florida State defense has been elite this season, especially against the pass. The Seminoles are third in Passing Success Rate Allowed and first in passing explosiveness allowed.
Not only do they have fantastic players in their secondary, but they've been an elite team at putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
However, teams have been able to run on Florida State's front seven. The Seminoles have faced a lot of bad rushing attacks, so their numbers are a tad inflated. The last good rushing team they faced was a Duke squad that ran wild on them for 5.6 yards per carry.
Florida Gators
Graham Mertz really hasn't been that bad of a quarterback this season despite Florida being 5-6. But he's not going to play in this game due to a collarbone fracture.
That leaves Max Brown to start this game. Brown was decent in relief of Mertz against Missouri, going 4-of-5 for 56 yards, but this will be his first-ever colligiate start.
He was a three-star quarterback coming out of high school, but this is going to be a big moment for him facing a secondary this good in a rivalry game.
What's most encouraging, though, is the Gators actually ran the ball incredibly effectively against Missouri this past weekend. They've struggled overall this season, but they averaged over six yards per carry and ran for over 250 yards against the Tigers.
They will have to run the ball effectively to take the pressure off of Brown, who's going up against a top-five secondary.
On the other side, the Florida defense has completely fallen off a cliff over the last four games. Against Georgia, Arkansas, LSU and Missouri, Florida allowed 7.5 yards per play.
With that being said, only one of those games came at home, and there's also a pretty drastic difference between its defensive performances at home versus on the road. In Gainesville, the Gators are allowing only 5.5 yards per play, but that number balloons up to 7.6 on the road.
With Travis out, Florida's secondary will catch a break after failing to stop anyone this season. The Gators rank 115th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 113th in PFF coverage grading.
Florida State vs Florida
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida State and Florida match up statistically:
Florida State Offense vs. Florida Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 93 | 19 | |
| Line Yards | 111 | 70 | |
| Pass Success | 21 | 115 | |
| Havoc | 7 | 60 | |
| Finishing Drives | 16 | 91 | |
| Quality Drives | 36 | 110 | |
Florida Offense vs. Florida State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 50 | 33 | |
| Line Yards | 54 | 13 | |
| Pass Success | 32 | 3 | |
| Havoc | 77 | 26 | |
| Finishing Drives | 11 | 17 | |
| Quality Drives | 18 | 7 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 65 | 92 |
| PFF Coverage | 12 | 113 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 4 | 8 |
| Middle 8 | 8 | 46 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.5 (77) | 28.9 (101) |
| Rush Rate | 50.2% (91) | 50.2% (94) |
Florida State vs Florida
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a very weird situation. We thought coming into this game that we would have had a great quarterback matchup with Mertz going up against Travis, but now we're stuck with two backups.
Brown making his first colligate start against a top-five secondary is a nightmare scenario for Florida. It was encouraging that it could move the ball on the ground with success against Missouri, but replicating that again for a rushing attack that has been relatively average all season might not be realistic.
Then, there's Rodemaker, who will be making his first start since 2020 on the road in a hostile environment. The Florida State offense relied heavily on Travis to carry it in the passing game due to a below-average rushing attack that was very reliant on explosive plays.
I think we'll see a lower-scoring game with two backup quarterbacks starting, so I like the value on under 49.5 points.
