Fresno State vs Nevada Prediction, Pick, Odds for Friday, October 18

I'm backing Fresno State against the spread here. My Nevada vs. Fresno State best bet is for the Bulldogs to cover the spread. Find the best line on our live NCAAF odds page.

• Fresno State vs. Nevada Pick: Fresno State +3.5

Friday, Oct. 18

10:30 p.m. ET

CBS Sports Network

Fresno State Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-3 -110	49.5 -110 / -110	-150

Nevada Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+3 -110	49.5 -110 / -110	+125

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

• Fresno State vs Nevada Point Spread: Fresno State -3 (-110) · Nevada +3 (-110)
• Fresno State vs Nevada Total: Over/Under 49.5
• Fresno State vs Nevada Moneyline: Fresno State -150 · Nevada +125

Fresno State vs Nevada Preview

Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview: Expect Offense to Score

It was a tough loss for the Bulldogs last week as Washington State pulled off a miraculous second-half rally to seal the victory.

The box score will tell you that the Bulldogs dominated the game as they outgained the Cougars by 40 yards, but still lost the contest. Although the offense's performance was encouraging, it only scored 17 points.

For most of the season, the Bulldogs have struggled offensively. Their rush success rate and line yards are outside the top 115.

Quarterback Mikey Keene has decent passing stats, but his six interceptions suggest he must better protect the football. The Bulldogs are 50th in Pass Success Rate.

This is a good matchup against a struggling Nevada secondary, but there is legit talent in the cornerback room. Regardless, Keene should have ample opportunity to take advantage of the matchup.

The alarming issue with Keene is that the Bulldogs are 50th in Havoc allowed, so many of these mistakes appear self-inflicted. He has to protect the football if the Bulldogs are going to come away with a road victory.

Defensively, it should be a battle in the trenches as both teams have strengths in this department. The Wolf Pack are excellent at preventing Havoc, and the Bulldogs are just as strong at creating it.

The Bulldogs' secondary is also excellent, ranking 41st in Pass Success Rate Allowed. They also rank 55th in PFF Coverage grading.

The Wolf Pack are a below-average passing offense, so there is reason for optimism regarding the Bulldogs’ secondary. The defensive line has also been decent against the run, so points may come at a premium for the Wolf Pack.

Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Preview: Defense Continues to Struggle

The Wolf Pack allowed over 600 yards of offense to Oregon State last week, but still prevailed. They also ran 29 fewer plays, but did enough in the end.

Oregon State's offense has been dreadful, so it was alarming to see how effective it was against Nevada. That is highly concerning heading into a matchup against a Bulldogs team that has sustained an efficient passing attack thus far.

On offense, quarterback Brendon Lewis returned to action and only threw for 51 yards. However, he was elite on the ground, rushing for 151 yards and a touchdown.

I can’t believe I’m typing this sentence, but Lewis has the Nevada offense humming.

The Wolf Pack are 21st in Rush Success Rate and 33rd in Offensive Line Yards. They've also sustained consistent scoring drives and rank in the top 45 in both Finishing Drives and Quality Drives.

This isn’t the easiest matchup against an above-average Bulldogs defense, but I like Nevada’s chances of doing damage on the ground.

Defensively, there are legitimate concerns. The defense ranks outside the top 90 in Pass and Rush Success Rate allowed.

I can't back the Wolf Pack given their recent defensive struggles. Their offense has been outstanding, but I’m worried about the number of stops they can get throughout this game.

Fresno State vs Nevada Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Fresno State and Nevada match up statistically:

Fresno State Offense vs. Nevada Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	115	101
Line Yards	127	55
Pass Success	50	84
Havoc	65	80
Finishing Drives	74	103
Quality Drives	83	117

Nevada Offense vs. Fresno State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	21	61
Line Yards	33	73
Pass Success	77	41
Havoc	40	42
Finishing Drives	42	70
Quality Drives	26	64

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	72	117
PFF Coverage	55	36
Special Teams SP+	94	120
Middle 8	106	80
Seconds per Play	27.5 (70)	30.6 (127)
Rush Rate	49% (95)	61% (26)

Fresno State vs Nevada Pick & Prediction

I will back the Bulldogs in a great bounce-back opportunity here. The Wolf Pack are coming off of a big win and may come out flat at home.

I really like what the Wolf Pack can do on offense, but the Bulldogs' secondary is an underrated group that should keep Nevada one-dimensional.

The Bulldogs’ offense should have plenty of success through the air against a struggling defense, and I believe they will be able to get their run game going, considering how bad the Wolf Pack rush defense has been.

I'll happily take over a field goal in what should be a good spot for the Bulldogs.

Pick: Fresno State +3.5 (Play to +3)

• 56% of bets and 70% of the money are on Fresno State to cover the spread
• 86% of bets and 87% of the money on the moneyline are on Fresno State to win outright
• 87% of bets and 97% of the money are on the over

Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.

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