The Fresno State Bulldogs head down to The Land of Enchantment to face the New Mexico Lobos.
Fresno State will go down the New Mexico gauntlet after convincingly demolishing New Mexico State last week, 48-0. It’s been one heck of a week for the Bulldogs, announcing that they’ll be moving to the Pac-12 in 2026 after being a part of the Mountain West since 2011.
New Mexico is terrible and it looks like it’s going to be another long season for the Lobos. In the past two weeks, they’ve gotten brutalized by both Auburn and Arizona, along with a Week 1 loss to an FCS program in Montana State.
Where does the betting value lie in tonight’s Mountain West game? Read more for my Fresno State vs New Mexico prediction.
Fresno State vs New Mexico Odds, Lines, Pick
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -535 |
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
- Spread: Fresno State -13.5 (-110) · New Mexico +13.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 59.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Moneyline: Fresno State -535 · New Mexico +400
- Pick: Fresno State -14
Fresno State vs New Mexico Preview
Fresno State Football
I’m a big Fresno State guy and I believe Tim Skipper and the Bulldogs are continuing to build a quality program.
The problem is, two of the strengths I thought they had have been underperforming (to my standards). Mikey Keene has had a slow start to the season, nearly throwing the same amount of interceptions as passing touchdowns.
Don’t get me wrong, he has the arm to make explosive plays, but his efficiency is a little off, ranking 86th in Passing Down Success Rate and 76th in Passing Play SR. Luckily he has top notch weapons in Mac Dalena who’s fifth in the FBS in receiving yards and 10th in yards per catch.
Jalen Moss is also a top notch player, averaging 17 yards per catch, but has yet to find the endzone.
Another issue is the running game where Malik Sherrod has disappointed me greatly. He still gets a ton of volume, but he’s only averaging 3.7 yards per carry and three TDs. Perhaps tonight is where Sherrod breaks out. New Mexico is the worst team in the FBS in stopping the run, and we may see a big one out of him.
The defensive side of the ball is where the Bulldogs thrive and where they’ve made a name for themselves. They did a solid job against Michigan in the Big House Week 1 (although the score may suggest otherwise) and shut out New Mexico State in Week 3.
Fresno’s secondary is among the best in the nation as well. Cameron Lockridge is among the elite, ranking second in the FBS in interceptions with three, including a forced fumble and fumble recovery.
New Mexico Football
Just how bad is New Mexico? It’s really bad.
I’ll give the Lobos a slight pass given that the past two games, they’ve played two power conference teams, but the loss to FCS Montana State is inexcusable.
QB Devon Dampier hasn’t been an efficient passer, throwing four interceptions and completing 57% of his passes. Along with that, he led the Lobos to a poorly ranked 86th Passing Down SR and 96th Passing Play SR.
There’s some decent options to throw to in Luke Wysong and Ryan Davis, but regardless Dampier has had a hard time hitting his targets.
The ground game isn’t much better given that Dampier leads in yards with 195 and 8.5 yards per carry. Running back Eli Sanders is a fine player at 4.7 YPC, but New Mexico insists on throwing the ball. UNM is ranked 100th in Rushing Plays Rate and 89th in Success Rate.
If you want to scroll down and see how poorly the Lobos are on the defensive side of the ball, have at it. All you’ll see is red.
Fresno State has virtually every edge when it has the ball, because the Lobos are incompetent with a bottom-five Pass Defense SR and as mentioned before, an FBS-worst Run Defense SR.
Fresno State vs New Mexico
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Fresno State and New Mexico match up statistically:
Fresno State Offense vs. New Mexico Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 96 | 134 | |
| Line Yards | 82 | 126 | |
| Pass Success | 76 | 130 | |
| Havoc | 50 | 94 | |
| Finishing Drives | 61 | 132 | |
| Quality Drives | 67 | 133 | |
New Mexico Offense vs. Fresno State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 90 | 63 | |
| Line Yards | 38 | 56 | |
| Pass Success | 95 | 30 | |
| Havoc | 37 | 53 | |
| Finishing Drives | 104 | 39 | |
| Quality Drives | 98 | 41 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 80 | 130 |
| PFF Coverage | 57 | 96 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 117 | 133 |
| Middle 8 | 75 | 94 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.5 (51) | 27.3 (61) |
| Rush Rate | 53% (72) | 45% (100) |
Fresno State vs New Mexico Prediction
Fresno State may have its way with the Lobos, just like it did against the Aggies last week.
While I’m a tad discouraged at the Bulldogs’ performance this season, The talent is exponentially better than whatever New Mexico is going to send out.
Additionally, this may be the night. I’m predicting Sherrod to go off against a rush defense that can’t stop a seven-year-old if it was given the opportunity.
You should back the Bulldogs to walk all over the Lobos. I don’t see this being particularly close.
Pick: Fresno State -14
How to Watch Fresno State vs New Mexico Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM |
| Date: | Saturday, Sep. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | truTV |
Fresno State vs New Mexico Betting Trends
- 62% of the tickets generated and 62% of the money is aimed for Fresno State to cover.
- 89% of the bets and 96% of the money is towards the Under.
Fresno State vs New Mexico Weather
