Well, this game sure got a whole lot more interesting.
Late Tuesday night, UNLV starting quarterback Matthew Sluka shocked the college football community when he announced he would be sitting out the remainder of the season and redshirting this year.
Both sides have done their own PR spins, and everybody on the internet has an opinion on the subject. I am not going to dive into that here because most of the takes, including my own, are likely wrong.
Undeniably, this shakes up a team that is 3-0. They are ranked 23rd in the coaches’ poll and firmly positioned in the race for a Mountain West Championship and a college football playoff appearance.
Regardless of who is quarterback, the team faces a tough task on Saturday in Fresno State. The Bulldogs are 3-1 this season and are also targeting a conference championship.
With no divisions in the Mountain West, the winner of this game will likely be in a great position for a possible clash with Boise State in the conference title game at the end of the season.
While the Sluka situation certainly provided a lot of drama off the field, we have a game to play and are here to talk ball. Let’s break down Fresno State vs. UNLV in a Mountain West showdown on Saturday.
Fresno State vs UNLV Prediction
- Fresno State vs UNLV Pick: Fresno State +2.5 (-112)
My Fresno State-UNLV best bet is on the Bulldogs to cover, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Fresno State vs UNLV Odds
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -112 | 50 -112o / -108u | +110 |
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -108 | 50 -112o / -108u | -130 |
- Fresno State vs UNLV Point Spread: Fresno State +2.5 (-112) · UNLV -2.5 (-108)
- Fresno State vs UNLV Total: Over/Under 50 (-112o / -108u)
- Fresno State vs UNLV Moneyline: Fresno State +110 · UNLV -130
Fresno State vs UNLV Preview
Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview: A Well-Rounded Team
There is no drama at the quarterback position for the Bulldogs with veteran Mikey Keene under center. After two seasons at UCF, Keene is in his second year with Fresno State. He is on pace for new career highs with 260.0 yards per game and 8.3 yards per attempt on the year.
One area of concern for Keene is that he has four interceptions already this season. However, they all came in the first two games of the season (two against Michigan), and he hasn’t even had a turnover-worthy play in the last two weeks.
Fresno State has a great running back in Malik Sherrod, who had nearly 1,000 yards last season and averaged 5.6 yards per carry. He has struggled through an injury early this season and sat out last week, but he is expected back in this one. The Bulldogs have a talented wide receiver room led by Mac Dalena and Jalen Moss, giving Keene plenty of weapons to work with and one of the best offensive lines in the country to play behind.
Last season, Fresno State took a bit of an uncharacteristic step back on defense. They gave up too many big plays but seemed to have straightened things out again. The Bulldogs rank 30th in Success Rate allowed.
Cornerback Cam Lockridge is the best player on this defense and is back after missing most of last season with an injury. He already has three interceptions and ranks third on the team in tackles. Former five-star recruit Korey Foreman, a USC transfer, has already made an impact on the defensive line for the Bulldogs.
UNLV Rebels Betting Preview: Believe in Hajj-Malik?
One of the rumored causes of drama with the Sluka NIL situation is due to his starting position not being guaranteed entering the season. That’s because UNLV also signed Hajj-Malik Williams out of the transfer portal and many people were very high on him as well.
Williams spent five years at FCS Campbell, where he threw for 58 touchdowns and 8,200 yards and rushed for another 1,678 yards with 23 scores on the ground. He is thought of as a better passer than Sluka, who really struggled with his accuracy this season. Many experts do not believe this will be much of a downgrade at quarterback.
One person surely happy with the quarterback change is star wide receiver Ricky White. He is coming off a season where he totaled 1,483 yards on 88 catches. Only Rome Odunze and Malik Nabers had more receiving yards last season. White is averaging just 3.3 catches and 42 yards per game this season with the struggling quarterback play. He will likely see an uptick with Williams under center.
When you think of Las Vegas, you think of gambling, which is exactly what this team does on defense. Last year, they led the Mountain West with 27 turnovers forced but also led the conference in big plays allowed, surrendering a whopping 87 plays of 20 or more yards.
They still play the same style and allow too many big plays, although they have improved a bit, thanks in large part to the safety transfer of Jalen Catalon. The former Arkansas/Texas blue-chip recruit already has three interceptions and is second on the team in solo tackles.
Fresno State vs UNLV
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Fresno State and UNLV match up statistically:
Fresno State Offense vs. UNLV Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 93 | 42 | |
| Line Yards | 98 | 112 | |
| Pass Success | 42 | 33 | |
| Havoc | 33 | 15 | |
| Finishing Drives | 57 | 112 | |
| Quality Drives | 56 | 14 | |
UNLV Offense vs. Fresno State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 57 | 57 |  |
| Line Yards | 26 | 59 | |
| Pass Success | 121 | 41 | |
| Havoc | 58 | 41 | |
| Finishing Drives | 71 | 42 | |
| Quality Drives | 47 | 37 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 52 | 114 |
| PFF Coverage | 44 | 42 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 97 | 19 |
| Middle 8 | 78 | 44 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.0 (60) | 28.5 (92) |
| Rush Rate | 52% (83) | 76% (4) |
Fresno State vs UNLV Pick & Prediction
This game has become much more difficult to handicap now. We can’t be sure exactly what the drop-off will be from Sluka to Williams, if there is even any drop-off at all. Williams's previous film as a passer is more impressive than Sluka’s, so this could end up being an upgrade.
But Sluka was also the team’s most effective runner, an area that is likely Fresno State’s biggest area of vulnerability. How quickly will Barry Odom and Brennan Marion be able to adjust this offense to fit the skill set of Williams?
When this line first opened at 3.5, I loved Fresno State, given the deficiencies of Sluka as a passer. While Williams might end up being an upgrade in the long run, he is a massive unknown and I find it hard to believe a midweek shakeup like this will result in an immediate positive effect.
Not to mention the distractions that have surrounded the Rebels all week with the public PR battle between the school and their former quarterback.
I liked this bet more over a field goal, and actually felt better about facing Sluka, I am sticking with the Bulldogs in this game.
Fresno State has a ton of talent on offense with the veteran Keene, a deep, wide receiver room, and an experienced offensive line. The Bulldogs rank 17th nationally in Explosiveness, which is an area that UNLV has consistently struggled with, allowing too many big plays. They still really struggle with tackling.
Defensively, the Bulldogs appear to have taken a big jump this season. They have not allowed more than 150 yards rushing all season, and that includes on the road at Michigan.
Stopping this Go-Go Offense is an extremely difficult task that few teams have managed to figure out. However, defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle and the Fresno State defense were one of just three teams to hold this offense under 25 points last season. They forced four turnovers in a 31-24 Bulldogs win.
I am sticking with my original pick and siding with Fresno State amidst even more chaos than Vegas is used to. I like the Bulldogs to come away with the upset win here, so I’ll take the points.
Pick: Fresno State +2.5 (-112)
How to Watch Fresno State vs UNLV Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
Fresno State vs UNLV Betting Trends
- 56% of the tickets and 85% of the money are targeted for the Bulldogs to cover.
- 60% of bets and 51% of the money is aimed at the Over.
- 89% of bettors are picking UNLV moneyline.
