Fresno State vs Utah State Odds
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
We have an incredibly solid Mountain West showdown to keep this Friday night college football slate rolling.
Fresno State was in the driver’s seat for a spot in the Mountain West Championship game and possibly even a New Year’s Six bowl berth before an always-tricky visit to Laramie knocked the Bulldogs down to 5-1.
However, they have a favorable schedule down the stretch, and it starts with a bounce-back spot against Utah State.
Fresno State already has Power Five road wins against Purdue and Arizona State on its resume. The Bulldogs are the defending Mountain West champions and are looking to defend their title with a retooled roster.
Two seasons ago, it was the Utah State Aggies atop the Mountain West Conference. However, since their 2021 title run, they've gone just 9-10 and are 3-3 start to this season.
Can Fresno State get back on track? Or will Utah State — which has won two straight — keeps things rolling?
Fresno State Bulldogs
The game wasn’t the only thing the Bulldogs lost last week, as starting quarterback Mikey Keene went down midway through the fourth quarter with an ankle injury.
Logan Fife entered and immediately led Fresno State on a touchdown drive. He later threw an interception that sealed the deal for Wyoming, though.
Fife will get the start here, but this isn't uncharted territory for the Bulldogs. When Jake Haener went down last season, Fife made four starts.
However, he didn't look great and went 2-2 with two touchdowns and six interceptions. He got better over his last two starts, but there's a reason why the Bulldogs brought in Keene from the transfer portal.
The big question coming into the season was how the Bulldogs would not only replace Haener, but also Jalen Moreno-Cropper, Nikko Remigio and Zane Pope.
They’ve gotten the production they needed from Erik Brooks, Jalen Moss and Jaelen Gill all stepping up and averaging over 60 yards per game. They each also have at least four touchdowns.
But that was with Keene.
These receivers will need to be even better to help out Fife, especially with the running game struggling. Elijah Gilliam hasn't been able to replace Jordan Mims' production. Fresno State ranks just 121st in Rushing Success Rate and has yet to top 145 rushing yards in a game this season.
The defense also lost some key pieces — mainly star safety Evan Williams — but has remained dominant and ranks 22nd in the nation in Defensive Success Rate.
Over the past four games, Fresno State has allowed just 10.8 points per game and has held its opponents to an average of just 252.5 yards.
Fresno State — led by Devo Bridges up front and lockdown corner Carlton Johnson — ranks 29th at creating Havoc and 33rd in Coverage grade.
The Bulldogs were dealt a big blow with Cam Lockridge being out for the season, but between Johnson, Morice Norris Jr. and Alzillion Hamilton, they have depth in the secondary.
Utah State Aggies
Quarterback has been a bit of a roller coaster for Utah State this season. Cooper Legas started the season as QB1, but his inconsistency as a passer limited the Aggies.
They made the switch to freshman McCae Hillstead in Week 3, but he suffered a concussion two weeks ago against UConn.
So, Legas will be under center again. Legas has thrown 10 touchdowns passes and four interceptions this season. He's completing 69% of his passes — which leads the Mountain West — but there's something missing from his game.
If they can get consistent quarterback play, the Aggies have two solid receivers in Jalen Royals and Terrell Vaughn. They're each averaging over 80 yards per game and have seven touchdowns apiece.
Utah State also has a solid stable of running backs. Davon Booth leads a room of him, Rahsul Faison and Robert Briggs Jr., and all three are averaging at least 40 yards per game. Booth averages over six yards per carry, but the team has just eight rushing touchdowns.
Utah State's issue is its defense. This unit is atrocious.
Despite playing the offenses of Iowa, Idaho State, Air Force, James Madison, UConn and Colorado State, Utah State ranks 124th in Success Rate on defense. The Aggies have allowed 406.8 yards and 32.2 points per game.
They're outside the top 100 against the run and the pass and have been burned by both. Idaho State and James Madison threw for over 320 yards and Air Force and UConn each ran for more than 200 yards against the Aggies.
Fresno State vs Utah State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Fresno State and Utah State match up statistically:
Fresno State Offense vs. Utah State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 121 | 124 |  |
| Line Yards | 99 | 64 | |
| Pass Success | 27 | 79 | |
| Havoc | 20 | 57 | |
| Finishing Drives | 45 | 104 | |
| Quality Drives | 25 | 78 | |
Utah State Offense vs. Fresno State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 30 | 31 | |
| Line Yards | 28 | 13 | |
| Pass Success | 72 | 45 | |
| Havoc | 102 | 29 | |
| Finishing Drives | 94 | 32 | |
| Quality Drives | 59 | 15 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 95 | 55 |
| PFF Coverage | 33 | 17 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 61 | 59 |
| Middle 8 | 86 | 14 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.8 (65) | 22.8 (8) |
| Rush Rate | 42.6% (124) | 49.5% (109) |
Fresno State vs Utah State
Betting Pick & Prediction
For as much as Fife has struggled under center, the Aggies' defense is a good matchup that can allow him to have success. Utah State gets no pressure on the quarterback and should give Fife time to get the ball to his receivers.
Utah State has looked improved on offense this season and has a decent cast of weapons, but there are two big areas of this game in which the Bulldogs have a massive advantage.
First, Fresno State's defense is second in the Mountain West in tackles for loss and 11th in the country with 12 turnovers forced.
Additionally, Utah State’s offensive line is terrible. It's 107th in pass blocking and 124th in run blocking. The Bulldogs' defenders will be licking their chops.
The other area in which Fresno State has a big advantage in is Finishing Drives. Even if Utah State is able to get the ball to it weapons, it performs better in open space. When the field shrinks, the Aggies have shriveled. Utah State ranks just 94th at Finishing Drives on offense when they cross the 40-yard line.
Fresno State has been terrific defensively, especially when the field shrinks. The Bulldogs rank 32nd in preventing Finishing Drives on defense.
Even without Keene, I like the Bulldogs to bounce back after a tough loss against Wyoming. They're extremely well coached and can still reach the Mountain West Conference Championship game.
Back Fresno State as a small favorite Friday night.
