It's time to get ready for college football Week 11.
Sure, we've had games for the past three days, but it's been nothing like this Friday night slate. Tonight, we have five games to prepare us for Saturday's wall-to-wall college football action.
Even better, our NCAAF writers broke down all five matchups — including the FCS game — and came through with a pick for each. So, whether you're looking ot bet an FCS clash in New Jersey or a BIg Ten battle in Hollywood, we have you covered.
Continue reading for all five of our Friday college football predictions — and be sure to check back tomorrow for even more college football betting coverage.
Friday College Football Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Friday's slate of Week 11 NCAAF games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 10:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Dartmouth vs. Princeton Prediction
By Joshua Nunn
Dartmouth (6-1, 3-1 Ivy) travels to take on Princeton (2-5, 1-3) in Friday night Ivy League play. This game kicks off at 6 p.m. ET and can be seen live on ESPNU.
Dartmouth enters with a much better record, but the line doesn't necessarily reflect that. The Big Green come in as -4.5 favorites with the over/under at 46.5.
So, where does the betting value lie.
Continue reading for my Dartmouth vs. Princeton predictions and college football picks for Friday, Nov. 8.
Dartmouth Big Green
The Big Green are coming off a stunning home loss to Harvard. The defense played really well for three quarters, but Harvard scored twice in the fourth quarter. The last touchdown came with 27 seconds left and put Harvard the ahead for good.
Dartmouth has played every Ivy League game extremely close, with each contest coming down to the final minutes. In fact, none of their conference games have been decided by more than four points.
Princeton Tigers Betting Preview
Princeton has been one of the more disappointing teams in the Ivy League this season. The Tigers have been blown out in their five losses and were largely non-competitive in their game against Cornell last week.
The Big Red raced out to a 28-0 lead and extended that lead to 49-14 after three quarters. Princeton's defense had no answer for Cornell and hasn’t had a lot of answers all season. Facing Dartmouth this week will be another tough task.
Dartmouth vs. Princeton Pick
I would lay the points with Dartmouth at anything less than a touchdown.
Dartmouth is a run-heavy team that operates methodically. Quarterback Jackson Proctor has been efficient for the Big Green, completing 67% of his passes with a 7:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Regardless, Dartmouth's preference is to run the football. Running back Q Jones has paced the Big Green rushing attack with 590 yards, but Dartmouth rotates three running backs and operates with a running quarterback in Grayson Saunier.
The Dartmouth defense did really well for three quarters to hold down Harvard, which has the best offense in the Ivy League. Meanwhile, Princeton's offense has been the worst in the Ivy League this year.
The Tigers are averaging just 271 yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry. Quarterback play has been a major issue as Blaine Hipa has completed just 53% of his passes with seven touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
The Princeton offensive line has been overwhelmed nearly every week and has surrendered 32 sacks to go along with a pedestrian run game.
Dartmouth has done well to limit the yards and points given up against the weaker teams in the Ivy League. Given the poor quarterback play we have seen from Princeton, Dartmouth's defense should have no trouble limiting the Tigers.
Princeton's defense has also been really bad this year and has given up 34 or more points in every one of its losses. Princeton is allowing 51% of third downs to be converted against them.
Not consistently getting off the field and having the defense out there for extended periods of time has been an issue.
Princeton has also had to defend the red zone frequently this season. The Tigers have allowed scores on 30-of-34 attempts inside the 20-yard line, with 25 of those scores being touchdowns.
The defense can't be counted on to force negative plays and Princeton has only forced 11 turnovers through eight games.
Princeton has been outgained in conference play by 169 yards per game and has allowed 450 yards or more in every Ivy League game.
I expect Dartmouth to put up a big number here.
Pick: Dartmouth -4.5 (Play to -7)
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Cal vs. Wake Forest Prediction
By Joshua Nunn
California (4-4, 0-4 ACC) travels to Winston Salem, North Carolina, to take on Wake Forest (4-4, 2-2 ACC) on Friday, November 8th. The game kicks off at 8:00 p.m. ET and can be seen live on ACC Network.
California comes in as a 7.5-point favorite, while the over/under is set at 55.
Continue reading for my Cal vs.Wake Forest prediction and college football picks below.
California Golden Bears
California is coming off a bye week after blasting Oregon State 44-7 a couple weeks ago, a game in which the Bears took out some frustration on the Beavers after losing four straight ACC games by a combined nine points.
Cal's offense broke out of a mid-season slump and racked up 478 yards and 44 points while scoring on six of seven first-half possessions. The Bears added scores on their first three possessions of the second half before running out the clock in the back half of the fourth quarter.
The Cal defense stepped up against the Beavers and limited OSU to just 60 yards rushing on a 2.2 yards-per-carry average. Oregon State didn’t get on the scoreboard until late in the fourth quarter when the game was well in hand.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wake Forest is also coming off a bye week and won back-to-back road games prior to the off week. The Demon Deacons' defense rebounded nicely after a blowout loss against Clemson and limited the offensive output of both UConn and Stanford.
In its past two games, Wake Forest has held opponents to just 148 combined rushing yards on an average of 2.84 yards per carry.
I like how Hank Bachmeier has been leading the offense recently and he is going to have to play his best football this week for Wake Forest to snag its third-straight win.
Cal vs. Wake Forest Pick
I'm going to play the home 'dog in this matchup. There are still some 7.5’s out there, so shop around for the best line.
California travels east for the third time this season and ACC play hasn't been kind to the Golden Bears. Cal's offense has really struggled along the offensive line this season and the issues have been magnified with the electric Jaydn Ott battling lingering injuries much of the season.
Cal is rushing for just 119 yards per game and averaging just 3.4 yards per carry this season. Also, quarterback Francisco Mendoza has been sacked 28 times this season.
Wake Forest's Defensive Havoc numbers haven’t been great, but considering some of the successful offenses they've lined up against, this isn't a surprise. Wake ranks 33rd nationally in Defensive Explosion surrendered as it's shown an ability to limit explosive playss. California is just 126th in Offensive Pass Play Explosiveness and 133rd in EPA Per Rush.
The Wake offense has had some success through the air recently and California ranks 132nd nationally in Defensive Pass Down Success rate. The Golden Bears' secondary also ranks 126th in Defensive Pass Down EPA Per Play. With the Wake Forest passing game starting to click, this could be a spot where the Deacons find success in this matchup.
California has struggled converting on third down this season and in cashing in while in the red zone. The Bears have converted just 38% on third down this season and are only scoring touchdowns on 50% of their red zone trips. On the road, these struggles are likely to be magnified.
I just don’t see as much separation between these teams as the line indicates. I expect this Friday night bout to be lower scoring and tight throughout. As such, I like the 'dog catching 7.5.
Pick: Wake Forest +7.5 (-122, FanDuel) | Play to +7 (-110)
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Iowa vs. UCLA Prediction
Iowa (6-3) fans are having a joyous season after finally being introduced to this brand-new concept known as offense. The Hawkeyes fired their "nepo-baby" and hired former Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester to turn the offense around.
The Hawkeyes rank fourth in the Big 10, averaging 30.8 points per game. They have already scored 277 points this season through nine games after only scoring 216 points last season in 14 games.
UCLA (3-5) has not had the same welcome to the Big Ten conference as Oregon. The Bruins and new coach Deshaun Foster have struggled to a 3-5 season in their new home, although they are coming off road back-to-back wins.
Both teams enter Friday night off consecutive victories, but only one will be able to carry over momentum and make it three.
Iowa is a 6-point favorite on the spread with a 44.5-point over/under. The game kicks off at 9 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on FOX.
Read on for my Iowa vs UCLA predictions and college football picks for their NCAAF Week 11 game.
Iowa Hawkeyes
The switch to Lester dramatically improved this offense, and the Hawkeyes' recent quarterback change made the improvement even more significant.
After Cade McNamara continued to demonstrate subpar play, the team finally switched to Northwestern transfer Brendan Sullivan, immediately scoring 40 points in back-to-back games.
Sullivan offers much more upside as a runner and now forms a dynamic backfield with star running back Kaleb Johnson. The Big Ten's leading rusher is averaging 142.1 yards per game. He is second in the nation in rushing, averaging 7.5 yards per carry.
Johnson has 19 rushing touchdowns on the year and has scored in every game. He has multiple scores in seven of his nine games and is in line for another monster game against this defense.
We have come to know the Hawkeyes for having a world-beater defense, but they have taken a slight step backward, especially against the run. However, they do not allow big plays and tighten up when opponents get into scoring range.
This defense is still well-coached under Phil Parker and does all the little things correctly. This team doesn’t make many mistakes and ranks in the top 10 in the country in coverage grade and tackling.
UCLA Bruins
UCLA could have used a quarterback upgrade this offseason but stuck with the returning Ethan Garbers.
He continues to be a below-average quarterback. On the season, Garbers has thrown just 10 touchdowns with nine interceptions and is averaging less than 250 yards per game.
Despite returning both of their top receivers, the Bruins have gotten nothing out of Logan Loya and J. Michael Sturdivant. Tight end Moliki Matavao is the team’s leading receiver with just 38 yards per game.
The running game is even worse. It’s been no more than a brisk power walk.
TJ Harden leads the team with 226 total yards in eight games. He has one rushing score. As a team, the Bruins have just three rushing touchdowns all season and are averaging a measly 2.8 yards per carry. They rank dead last in the country with just 73.9 rushing yards per game. That is shocking, considering they promoted their running backs coach to head coach.
Speaking of bad, this defense is a mess.
They lost defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn and a ton of NFL talent, especially up front. Last year’s stout unit has fallen to 122nd nationally. They rank outside the top 100 against the run, which could be a problem in this matchup.
Iowa vs. UCLA Pick
Iowa has the best offense in this game by a wide margin. I have worked at Action Network for five years, and that is a sentence I have never written.
Iowa ranks in the top half of the Big 10 in yards per play and has looked even better with Sullivan under center. Iowa already has a top-10 rush rate, and Sullivan adds another element as a dual-threat quarterback.
Johnson is one of the best running backs in the country and should have another terrific day against this UCLA defense. As the Hawkeyes move the ball down the field, UCLA has been awful at preventing finishing drives, leading to Iowa turning long drives into touchdowns.
Iowa's biggest weakness this season has been defending the run. In each of their Big 10 losses, they allowed over 200 yards rushing. That shouldn’t be an issue in this one, though, as the Bruins have the worst rushing offense in the country. Their run game is non-existent.
That will leave things up to Garbers and this passing attack against a Hawkeyes secondary that ranks fifth in the country in Pro Footbal Focus's Coverage Grade. Iowa has a big advantage on both sides of the ball, and the Hawkeyes have an advantage in special teams as they always do.
Even traveling to the West Coast, Iowa has a big advantage in this matchup.
Pick: Iowa -6 (-110, bet365) | Play to -7 (-110)
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Rice vs. Memphis Prediction
By Joshua Nunn
The Rice Owls (3-6, 2-3 AAC) take on the Memphis Tigers (7-2, 3-2 AAC) on Friday night in American Conference action. The game kicks off at 9:00 p.m. ET and can be seen live on ESPN2. Memphis comes in as a nine-point favorite, with the over/under set at 53.5.
Rice Owls
Rice rallied the troops in a big way last week after the firing of head coach Mike Bloomgren.
The Owls pulled out a shocking 24-10 upset over Navy. The game was delayed over five hours due to inclement weather, but once the game resumed, Rice went right down the field for touchdowns on back-to-back possessions in the first quarter.
The Owls' defense stole the show as Navy never threatened and only amassed 260 yards of offense. Rice's run defense was keyed in on the option all night as the Middies achieved only 140 rush yards on a 3.5 yards per carry average.
Memphis Tigers
Memphis is coming off a shocking 44-36 road loss to UTSA. This was expected to be a highly anticipated AAC showdown as these teams were pre-season AAC favorites, but both have underachieved in conference play this season.
It was shocking to see Memphis surrender a 24-14 second quarter as UTSA scored the next 30 points to take firm control of the game.
During that stretch, Memphis failed to score on nine straight possessions and was stopped on downs four times.
Rice vs. Memphis Pick
This is a buy-low, sell-high situation for both teams. Memphis' defense isn't as bad as it played last week and I don’t think Rice is as good as we saw last week. I am going to grab the Rice Team Total at Under 21.5.
Despite the recent uninspiring play, Memphis is solid defensively — ranking 38th in Defensive Success Rate and fifth in Defensive Havoc. The run defense has been solid for most of the year holding, teams to just 115.7 yards per game and a 3.9 yard per carry average.
Rice has struggled in standard down situations, ranking just 99th in Offensive Standard Down Success Rate. Over the past three weeks, Rice has averaged just 101 yards per game on the ground.
Memphis should be able to stop Rice's ground game and force the Owls into undesirable pass situations. Rice's offense ranks just 18th in Pass Play EPA Per Play and 126th in Pass Play Success Rate. The Owls are limited in their explosiveness as they don't have a receiver averaging more than 12 yards per reception on the season.
Rice has also struggled on third downs, converting just 34.5%. The Memphis defense forces teams into third down situations frequently and has seen the opposition convert just 35% of the time.
Rice struggles in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on just 15-of-28 attempts with five of those touchdowns coming against FCS bottom feeder Texas Southern. Against FBS competition, Rice is averaging 16 points per game. Oh, and that drops when on the road, where Rice is 0-4 and averaging just 10.2 points per game.
Memphis' offense is playing at a much slower pace this season and averaging nearly 34 minutes of time of possession. The Tigers have made a concerted effort to run the ball more and when the game is on the line, I expect Memphis to control the line of scrimmage.
I expect a low-scoring game and feel we're getting value on a higher-than-normal team total for Rice. So, I'll take the under.
Pick: Rice Team Total Under 21.5
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New Mexico vs. San Diego State Prediction
By John Feltman
It's another edition of Friday Night Lights in the Mountain West Conference as the New Mexico Lobos (3-6) travel to San Diego, California, to take on the San Diego State Aztecs (3-5).
The Aztecs were blitzed last week by the Boise State Broncos, and the Lobos lost a back-and-forth affair at home against Wyoming.
Both teams are sitting on three victories, while the Lobos must win out to earn Bowl eligibility. The Aztecs have a slightly bigger cushion, as they can afford to lose one more game before each game becomes a must-win.
Oddsmakers believe we are in for a close contest, as the Lobos are 3-point road underdogs. The total is 66.5, which fits the recurring theme of defense being optional between these clubs.
Read on for our New Mexico vs San Diego State predictions and college football picks.
New Mexico vs San Diego State Preview
New Mexico Lobos
The Lobos might be 3-6 on the season, but not because of their offensive production. They lost another close matchup last week because their defense was gashed.
Offensively, the Lobos, led by quarterback Devon Dampier, have been excellent under head coach Bronco Mendenhall and draw a terrific matchup against the Aztecs' defense. Dampier has turned the ball over 12 times throughout the season (eight interceptions, four Fumbles Lost), which is not ideal, but he has been productive through the air and on the ground.
The Lobos rank sixth nationally in EPA per Rush and enter the matchup 39th in Rushing Success Rate. They also rank seventh in Line Yards, which means their offensive line consistently gets a solid push in the trench.
They also rank 18th in Havoc Allowed, meaning many of Dampier's turnovers have been self-inflicted. The offensive front should completely dominate a nonexistent Aztec defensive trench.
It's concerning that they are a below-average team in Finishing Drives, but the Aztecs are horrific in that department on the defensive side of the ball. There is no question that the Lobos should sustain multiple scoring opportunities throughout the game, and it will be up to their defense to make some stops along the way.
Keep an eye on the injury report, as top wide receiver Luke Wysong is questionable with a leg injury, and he's caught 40 passes for the Lobos thus far. Given the matchup, the high-octane Lobos offense loves to go fast, and we may see a 51% rush rate tick a notch.
Their defense gives us much cause for concern. The Lobos do not stop, and they do not create any Havoc.
The defensive unit ranks outside the top 100 in almost every metric, notably Pass Success and Rush Success Rate allowed. Not only that, but they are a horrific tackling team and rank 109th among stop units in Pro Football Focus's Coverage grades.
This is not to say the Aztecs' offense is constantly firing on all cylinders, but any opponent has had their way with their poor defense throughout the season. Remember that FCS Montana State ran for over 380 yards against the Lobos in Week 0.
I do not see a world where the Lobos get any stops throughout the game, but their offense has the upper hand. We should see plenty of scoring from Dampier and the offense throughout the contest.
San Diego State Aztecs
The Aztecs had no chance against the Broncos last week, and it was not a surprise to see them get blown out. It wasn't the most excellent spot for the Broncos to come out sharp, but they didn't skip a beat, putting up 56 points throughout the contest.
QB Danny O'Neil has to be better against the Lobos, as he threw two interceptions and completed less than 50% of his passes against the Broncos. O'Neil did chip in three touchdowns through the air, so that is the lone positive we can take from the matchup.
It's an incredible matchup for the offense, as the Big Bets On Campus Podcast has famously declared the Aztec's slogan as "Going nowhere fast." The up-tempo offensive unit has struggled chiefly throughout the season, but now is the time for them to get right.
The Aztecs rank 131st nationally in Rush Success Rate but 69th in Line Yards. Despite their inability to run the ball consistently, this is a highly soft matchup for them.
A 111th rank in Pass Success Rate could be more encouraging, but the Lobos' defense has been quintessentially a turnstile all season long. Wid receiver Ja'Shaun Poke remains questionable, as he did not play against the Broncos last week.
Regardless, the pass-heavy approach should bode well for the offense, and it will be an excellent opportunity to establish their ground attack led by running back Marquez Cooper.
However, many question marks surround the Aztec's defense, and their performance against the Broncos should not be overlooked. They did turn the ball over twice, but I would not attribute the Broncos' elite offensive attack to why the defense was catching their breath most of the evening.
The Aztecs rank outside the top 100 in Rush Success Rate and Line Yards Allowed and have allowed their opponents to score at will inside their territory. The red zone defense is nonexistent, and they rank 103rd in PFF's Tackling grades.
It's a terrible matchup against a potent Lobos offense, so there will be few stops throughout the contest. Their offense can bounce back, and it's saying little when I say their defense is more trustworthy.
However, due to their questionable defense, I can't find a way to lay the points with the Aztecs at home.
New Mexico vs. San Diego State Pick
In a game that goes back and forth, I must take the Lobos as a short dog.
It is an excellent bounce-back opportunity for the Aztecs' offense, but given their struggles on the defensive side of the ball, there is no reason they should be laying points to anybody.
The total initially grabbed my attention, but O'Neil's inconsistencies explain why the game might sail under. The Lobos' offense should sustain multiple drives of success throughout the game, and it'll be critical for Dampier to protect the ball.
We will have a back-and-forth affair, so I lean with the underdog here.
Pick: New Mexico +2.5
