College Football Predictions & Picks for Friday
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 10:15 p.m. | |
  | 10:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Friday Night Lights.
There's something special about college football being played under the lights, and this week is no different.
We have five games on this Friday night slate, including No. 2 Oregon vs. Purdue in the Big Ten and Oklahoma State vs. No. 13 BYU in the Big 12.
That means it will serve as the perfect appetizer for another incredible Saturday slate.
Our college football writers broke down all five matchups and came through with a pick for each game. So, whether you're looking to bet a Big Ten battle in West Lafayette or enjoy an Ivy League clash, we have you covered.
Continue reading for Friday college football odds and predictions — and be sure to check back tomorrow for our coverage of Saturday's spectacular slate.
Florida State vs. Duke Prediction for Friday
By Brett Pund
Friday night lights make their way to the Atlantic Coast Conference in Week 8 when the Duke Blue Devils (5-1, 1-1 ACC) and Florida State Seminoles (1-4, 1-4) battle at Wallace Wade Stadium.
The Blue Devils enter this game needing just 1 win to secure a bowl bid in their 1st season under new head coach Manny Diaz.
Meanwhile, the Seminoles have struggled after the banner year in 2023, owning a 1-5 record overall.
With the struggles of both offenses, I’m not expecting many points in this one, but I do believe this gives us great betting value. So, let’s make some Duke vs. Florida State predictions and college football picks for Friday, Oct. 18.
Florida State Seminoles
If you want to know how bad this season has been, the media relations department at FSU released the weekly game notes. One of the four “Numbers to Know” on the first page highlights the 16 punts of 50-plus yards by Alex Mastromanno.
I’m not here to disrespect punters. However, I have a feeling this would not have been one of the highlights during the undefeated season a year ago.
One thing to be positive about is this has been a spot where Mike Norvell has thrived as a coach. He's 9-3 in his career coming off an in-season bye week.
If you include season openers, non-Saturday games and bowls, his teams are 27-12 with more than seven days to prepare for a contest.
The other hope is that the extra time to prepare should only help the quarterback change to Brock Glenn. It's Norvell's last roll of the dice to try to save this season.
Duke Blue Devils
On the opposite end of the spectrum from FSU, this has been an excellent start to the season for Duke in Diaz’s debut campaign.
This is the Blue Devils’ second straight season with a 5-1 start. This marks the 25th time in school history Duke has done so and the first in back-to-back years since 2014-15.
One of the keys to the strong start has been how Duke has finished games, outscoring opponents, 40-20, in the fourth quarter.
Diaz’s squad has also been on the right side of closing out close games. Duke is tied for the ACC lead in one-score victories with three.
Teams can go a full season before this trend of close victories corrects itself the following year. If that's the case for Duke, the Blue Devils need to take advantage and find a way to make a bowl game.
Florida State vs. Duke Pick
If you had told me back in the summer that Duke would be the favorite in this game, I would not have believed you. This is the case, but I’m not ready to lay points with the Blue Devils.
Instead, I do believe in their defense against what has been a poor Florida State offense. So, my best bet is for the Seminoles to fall under their team total of 20.5 at FanDuel, which I would play down to 17.5.
I would recommend waiting until closer to kickoff, as I expect money to come in on FSU. Any movement toward the visitors on the spread should push this team total up, with the hopes of getting to the key number of 21.
You have to go all the way back to the Week 0 loss to Georgia Tech in Ireland to find the only game where FSU cleared this total. We could see some improvements off the bye, but it would take a big turnaround from what we’ve seen so far.
On the year, this Florida State offense ranks outside the top 120 in multiple categories, including Pass Success, Rate Finishing Drives and Quality Drives. The key issue has not been getting anything going through the air.
Even without a solid passing attack, Norvell's team still ranks outside the top 120 in rush rate. This also plays into a strength for Duke.
The Blue Devils rank in the top 10 in the FBS in both Pass Success Allowed and Havoc, while the unit is also ranked 18th in PFF Coverage grade. This is the same defense that's also inside the top 25 in both Finishing Drives Allowed and Quality Drives Allowed.
I’m not going to sell you on Duke’s offense in this spot, so I’ll just oppose the Florida State offense here on Friday night.
Pick: Florida State Team Total Under 20.5 (Play to 17.5)
| | | | |
Brown vs. Princeton Prediction for Friday
By Joshua Nunn
The Brown Bears (2-2) take on the Princeton Tigers (1-3) on Friday, Oct. 18. The game can be seen live on ESPNU, and kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET.
While there's no line as of writing, Princeton is projected as a small favorite, and the total is projected to be around 52.5.
Both teams are coming off back-to-back losses and looking to get their seasons back on track. With the Ivy League still wide open, this becomes an important game for the conference standings.
Let's dive into my Brown vs. Princeton predictions and college football picks for Friday, Oct. 18.
Brown Bears
Brown is coming off a loss at Rhode Island last week. The Bears led the game in the fourth quarter but were stopped on downs at the URI 30-yard line and surrendered a touchdown two plays later.
The final three Brown drives ended with a missed field goal and two turnovers. Brown's defense has been a liability in its past two losses after two decent performances to open the season.
The Bears will be looking to finish strong this week after being outscored, 36-14, in the fourth quarter over the past two weeks.
Princeton Tigers
Princeton lost to Mercer, 34-7, in its most recent contest.
The Tigers were dominated in all three phases with the offense committing six turnovers and achieving only nine first downs. Mercer had both a special teams and a defensive touchdown in the victory.
Princeton has played well below expectations this season and its quarterback play has been especially bad. Quarterbacks Blaine Hipa and Blaine McCallister have combined to hit just 42% of their passes for 572 yards and a 4:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The offensive line has been equally bad as Princeton is averaging just 2.9 yards per carry and has surrendered 15 sacks. The defense hung in there for three quarters against Mercer, but the six turnovers were very deflating.
Brown vs. Princeton Pick
I'm going to take Princeton if the line comes out under a field goal.
Princeton has played about as bad as a team possibly could on offense over the past two games. The Tigers have had very little continuity and have struggled to put drives together.
Princeton has gone up against two really solid FCS defenses over the past two weeks, which has made it a struggle to score points.
In the loss against Mercer, the Tigers moved the football into the red zone three times in the second half before those drives stalled out. Mercer has an exceptional FCS defense that ranks first in the FCS in passing efficiency and second in scoring defense.
It's hard to trust Brown's defense on the road given the recent performances against Bryant and Rhode Island. Over the past two weeks, Brown has surrendered 475 yards and 36.5 points per game. The secondary has been shredded against the pass and the defensive front seven has given up 5.3 yards per carry during that stretch.
I expect Princeton's offense to give senior running back John Volker plenty of touches in this one. He's an explosive back and one of the few bright spots we've seen from the Tigers offense this season.
The Princeton defense has been solid in Ivy League play year after year, and while it hasn't played up to expectations thus far, this could be a spot where it gets it figured out.
Brown struggles to protect the quarterback and the offensive line has surrendered 11 sacks on the season. The Bears' run game is averaging only 128 yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry. Princeton also has a veteran defensive line, as all four starters have started for multiple years and are quite familiar with Brown's offensive attack.
This could be the turning point for Princeton to get its season back on track. The Tigers lost to the Bears in overtime last year and will be playing for revenge this week.
The quality of the defenses Princeton has faced has made the offensive numbers look really rough.
The Tigers are a veteran team, and this performance will be very telling as to how the remainder of their season will look.
Pick: Princeton -2.5 or Better
| | | | |
Oregon vs. Purdue Prediction for Friday
After a historic win over Ohio State, the Oregon Ducks (6-0, 3-0 Big Ten) travel across the country for their first-ever Big Ten road game not on the West Coast against the Purdue Boilermakers (1-5, 0-3).
For the first time in 20 tries, Oregon beat a top-2 team in the country, and it was Dan Lanning's 1st signature win as head coach.
Now, it's in a precarious spot as it makes its longest trip of the season to West Lafayette on a short week to battle the worst team in the Big Ten. These are the types of spots where top teams tend to slip up in non-covering efforts, so Oregon better come ready to play on Friday night.
Purdue showed a lot of fight and life against Illinois last weekend before choking the game away in the final minutes to lose in overtime, 50-49.
The Ducks enter this game as -29 favorites with the over/under at 60.
Let's dive into my Oregon vs. Purdue predictions and college football picks for Friday, Oct. 18.
Oregon Ducks
Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel came up huge in big moments against Ohio State last weekend, which is nothing new because he's been one of the best quarterbacks in college football this season.
He's posted a PFF Passing Grade of 88 on an 83.6% adjusted completion percentage with 13 touchdowns. He has also completed nearly 60% of his passes over 10 air yards, thanks to an elite receiving corps that generates plenty of separation.
Tez Johnson has quickly become Gabriel's favorite target, compiling 470 yards receiving in six games. He works mainly out of the slot and is Gabriel's main target in short routes.
Johnson has an average depth of target of just 5.2 and averages just 9.6 yards per catch, but he has already commanded 60 targets from Gabriel. He'll be huge for Oregon in this game with how bad Purdue has been in one-on-one coverage.
On the other side of the ball, Oregon has seen some struggles against the run. The Ducks may be 43rd in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, but they've given up a lot of big plays on the ground, ranking 116th in explosive rushing allowed.
They also aren't dominating in the trenches considering the talent they boast, ranking 66th in Defensive Line Yards and 94th in Stuff Rate.
One of the other concerning signs about Oregon's defense is how efficient teams have been in the red zone. Opponents have scored a field goal or touchdown on 93.8% of their trips inside Ducks' 20, which is really concerning.
Oregon is also allowing 4.4 points per scoring opportunity, which puts it 111th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue's defense is providing no resistance right now, as teams can do whatever they want to the Boilermakers. This is the worst secondary in the Power 4, allowing opposing quarterbacks to average 9.6 yards per attempt while ranking 125th in EPA/Pass Allowed.
Illinois' Luke Altmyer threw for 379 yards and five big-time throws against Purdue's secondary last weekend, so Gabriel will have a field day here.
The Boilermakers can't stop giving up big plays in the run game either. They may sit 77th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, but they're 130th in explosive rushing allowed. Just take a look at some of the rushing totals they've allowed this season:
| Opponent | Rush Yards Allowed |
|---|---|
| vs. Notre Dame | 362 |
| at Oregon State | 341 |
| vs. Nebraska | 161 |
| at Wisconsin | 228 |
| at Illinois | 177 |
On the other side of the ball, the offense showed up against Illinois because of Ryan Browne's play at quarterback.
Hudson Card was out with a concussion, so Browne stepped in against a top-25 team and went 18-for-26 for 297 yards and three touchdowns.
Browne was a three-star prospect coming out of high school, but if last week's start was any indication, he's far more effective than Card has been.
Regardless of whether or not Card has recovered from his concussion, Browne will be the starter on Friday night.
Coach Walters has confirmed freshman QB Ryan Browne will start Friday night against the No. 2 Oregon Ducks. No new information about Hudson Card's role has been revealed. pic.twitter.com/Sp1bZ9kj24
— Exponent Sports Desk (@Exponent_Sports) October 14, 2024
The one thing about the Purdue offense that's encouraging is its ability to finish off drives.
The Boilers don't cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a high rate, but when they do, they're averaging 4.3 points per scoring opportunity, which is good for 20th in the nation.
Purdue should also find some success on the ground. Despite the 1-5 record, it's 35th in EPA/Rush, and its offensive line is 37th in Offensive Line Yards. Oregon's run defense, meanwhile, remains closer to average.
Oregon vs. Purdue Pick
Purdue is truly the worst Power 4 defense in the country. Even though Walters came to West Lafayette as a defensive mastermind, he hasn't figured things out yet, as the Boilermakers are allowing 7.1 yards per play on average — the sixth-worst mark in college football.
This is a potential flat spot for Oregon coming off that huge win over Ohio State while traveling all the way to the Eastern time zone to play on a short week. Even with those factors, the Ducks should still roll against Purdue's defense.
I really think the Boilermakers can move the ball this game, especially on the ground. Oregon has been a well below-average run defense this season and has given up way too many big plays.
Additionally, don't be surprised if the Boilermakers put quite a few points on the board if Browne looks anywhere close to how he looked against Illinois.
I have 67.8 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 60 points.
Pick: Over 60
| | | | |
Oklahoma State vs. BYU Prediction for Friday
By Doug Ziefel
This Friday night, we have ourselves a marquee edition of the Big 12 After Dark. The Oklahoma State Cowboys travel to take on the 13th-ranked BYU Cougars at 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Cougars' undefeated start is a surprise, but it's the quality of their victories that's allowed them to climb high in the rankings. They're first in the Big 12 and have a real shot at winning it, as their upcoming opposition hasn't played to expectations.
The Cowboys are one of those Big 12 teams that's failed to meet expectations. They come into this matchup on a three-game losing streak, all coming against conference foes.
BYU is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a total of 52.5.
Here's my Oklahoma State vs BYU predictions and my college football picks for Friday.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State came into this season with real Big 12 title aspirations, as the departures of Texas and Oklahoma opened up the conference. It was supposed to be spurred by Ollie Gordon II, who was coming off a monster season and was a Heisman candidate.
Well, six games into the season, and none of that has come to fruition.
The Cowboys have looked non-competitive in the Big 12, and Gordon has struggled to get going, only averaging 3.8 yards per carry this season.
A big reason for Gordon's struggles is the play of the offensive line. Oklahoma State ranks 113th in Offensive Line Yards and 131st in Rush Success Rate.
This has led to the offense falling onto quarterback Alan Bowman's arm. While Bowman has shown his big arm, it will be Garret Rangel taking over under center.
If Gordon can't get going, the Cowboys' offense may struggle against the Cougars' elite secondary.
BYU Cougars
While the Cougars' defense has stifled their opposition, they've shown that they can move the ball in multiple facets on offense.
It all starts with quarterback Jake Retzlaff.
Retzlaff has been tremendous through the air. He completes 60% of his passes while holding a 14-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Retzlaff should be able to connect with his duo of receivers — Chase Roberts and Darius Lassiter — for chunk gains, as the Cowboys rank 99th in yards per pass allowed and 78th in sack rate.
However, the Cougars won't have to stretch the field much, as they can control this game on the ground. Just like on the outside, BYU will feature a pair of excellent running backs who should keep the chains moving with ease.
Oklahoma State ranks 119th in yards per rush allowed and will be outranked 68 to 111th in Line Yards on this side of the ball.
Look for BYU to put together multiple methodical drives in this one.
Oklahoma State vs. BYU Pick
This total opened at 55.5 and has since fallen three points. While that's a big move, there's still value in taking the under.
Oklahoma State won't have much going on offense in this one, as BYU has shown it can contain a better passing attack than Oklahoma State.
Additionally, the Cowboys are likely to be dominated in the time of possession in this matchup, as they have no real way of slowing down the Cougars' rushing attack.
That combination will shorten this game, limit both sides' scoring opportunities and keep it under the total.
Pick: Under 52.5 (Play to 51.5)
| | | | |
Fresno State vs. Nevada Prediction for Friday
By John Feltman
We've got a Friday night Mountain West Conference showdown between the Fresno State Bulldogs (3-3, 1-1 MWC) and Nevada Wolf Pack (3-4, 0-1).
The Bulldogs are coming off a tough 25-17 loss to Washington State, while the Wolf Pack upset Oregon State in a high-scoring affair by a score of 42-37.
Both of these teams have performed over expectations thus far, giving us an intriguing Friday night battle.
Oddsmakers have the Bulldogs as 3-point underdogs on the road, and the total is set at 50.5.
Let's break down Friday night's clash and get to my Fresno State vs. Nevada predictions and college football picks for Friday, Oct. 18.
Fresno State Bulldogs
It was a tough loss for the Bulldogs last week as Washington State pulled off a miraculous second-half rally to seal the victory.
The box score will tell you that the Bulldogs dominated the game as they outgained the Cougars by 40 yards, but still lost the contest. Although the offense's performance was encouraging, it only scored 17 points.
For most of the season, the Bulldogs have struggled offensively. Their rush success rate and line yards are outside the top 115.
Quarterback Mikey Keene has decent passing stats, but his six interceptions suggest he must better protect the football. The Bulldogs are 50th in Pass Success Rate.
This is a good matchup against a struggling Nevada secondary, but there is legit talent in the cornerback room. Regardless, Keene should have ample opportunity to take advantage of the matchup.
The alarming issue with Keene is that the Bulldogs are 50th in Havoc allowed, so many of these mistakes appear self-inflicted. He has to protect the football if the Bulldogs are going to come away with a road victory.
Defensively, it should be a battle in the trenches as both teams have strengths in this department. The Wolf Pack are excellent at preventing Havoc, and the Bulldogs are just as strong at creating it.
The Bulldogs' secondary is also excellent, ranking 41st in Pass Success Rate Allowed. They also rank 55th in PFF Coverage grading.
The Wolf Pack are a below-average passing offense, so there is reason for optimism regarding the Bulldogs’ secondary. The defensive line has also been decent against the run, so points may come at a premium for the Wolf Pack.
Nevada Wolf Pack
The Wolf Pack allowed over 600 yards of offense to Oregon State last week, but still prevailed. They also ran 29 fewer plays, but did enough in the end.
Oregon State's offense has been dreadful, so it was alarming to see how effective it was against Nevada. That is highly concerning heading into a matchup against a Bulldogs team that has sustained an efficient passing attack thus far.
On offense, quarterback Brendon Lewis returned to action and only threw for 51 yards. However, he was elite on the ground, rushing for 151 yards and a touchdown.
I can’t believe I’m typing this sentence, but Lewis has the Nevada offense humming.
The Wolf Pack are 21st in Rush Success Rate and 33rd in Offensive Line Yards. They've also sustained consistent scoring drives and rank in the top 45 in both Finishing Drives and Quality Drives.
This isn’t the easiest matchup against an above-average Bulldogs defense, but I like Nevada’s chances of doing damage on the ground.
Defensively, there are legitimate concerns. The defense ranks outside the top 90 in Pass and Rush Success Rate allowed.
I can't back the Wolf Pack given their recent defensive struggles. Their offense has been outstanding, but I’m worried about the number of stops they can get throughout this game.
Fresno State vs. Nevada Pick
I will back the Bulldogs in a great bounce-back opportunity here. The Wolf Pack are coming off of a big win and may come out flat at home.
I really like what the Wolf Pack can do on offense, but the Bulldogs' secondary is an underrated group that should keep Nevada one-dimensional.
The Bulldogs’ offense should have plenty of success through the air against a struggling defense, and I believe they will be able to get their run game going, considering how bad the Wolf Pack rush defense has been.
I'll happily take over a field goal in what should be a good spot for the Bulldogs.
Pick: Fresno State +3.5 (Play to +3)
