Friday. Night. Lights.
There's always something special about college football being played under the lights ahead of Saturday's slate of wall-to-wall action, and that's exactly what we have tonight.
Tonight's college football slate features four games: Yale vs. Columbia at the FCS level, along with Georgia State vs. UConn, USF vs. FAU and San Diego State vs. Boise State in FBS action.
Our college football writers broke down all four games and came through with a pick for each. So, let's dive into this appetizer because Saturday's main course will be here before we know it.
Read on for Friday college football picks and predictions — and be sure to check back tomorrow for even more college football betting coverage.
Friday College Football Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Yale vs. Columbia Pick
By Joshua Nunn
Yale (4-2) travels to “The Big Apple” to take on Columbia (4-2) in Friday night Ivy League action on Friday, November 1st.
The game kicks off at 7:00 PM ET and can be seen on ESPNU.
The Ivy League season is halfway completed, and these two teams are squarely in the mix to earn a share of the Ivy League championship.
Interestingly, Columbia has not won the Ivy League title since 1961!
Yale is slated as a 2-point favorite in the contest with a 51.5-point over/under.
Yale Bulldogs
Yale comes in from a dominating performance in a road win last week at Penn.
The Bulldogs completely dominated the game from the opening kickoff. They scored on their first possession and, two minutes later, were up 14-0 en route to a 31-10 win.
Yale's quarterback, Grant Jordan, played well, completing 80% of his passes for 289 yards and four touchdowns.
The run game cashed in for 208 yards, with Joshua Pitsenberger and Tre Peterson each surpassing 80 yards each.
The Bulldog defense was completely in control as Penn ran for 3.27 yards per carry and threw for 91 yards with just 12 first downs. This was the second consecutive game where the Yale defense showed improvement after several poor performances to open the season.
Columbia Lions
Columbia has been playing excellent football this year despite losing last week against Dartmouth.
The Big Green have been the best team in the Ivy League this season, and Columbia played them very well.
The Lions' defense has shined this year, specifically in conference play. Columbia has held opponents to 316 yards and 19.3 points per game in league play.
The offense is run-heavy, led by running back Joey Giorgi, who has rushed for 495 yards this year with a 6.1 yards per carry average.
Unsettling quarterback play has created a situation where Columbia has rotated between Cole Freeman and Chase Goodwin. Both players have mediocre performances this year, which has created murky waters as to who they want to use moving forward.
Yale vs. Columbia Pick Prediction
Based on previous Yale performances, I would have never said this earlier in the season, but I like the under.
Yale and Columbia are methodical on offense, and chunk play potential is limited. Both are rush-heavy, slower-paced offenses.
The Lions have been outstanding at limiting explosive passing plays, and the run defense has done well overall — Columbia forces opponents to move the ball down the field methodically.
Meanwhile, Yale's rush defense and pass rush look improved — the Bulldogs have registered 27 tackles for loss and eight sacks this season.
Both squads have stout red-zone defenses. Columbia has allowed only eight 16 red-zone trips to result in touchdowns, while Yale has allowed just 13 of 25 trips.
I expect few chunk plays and more methodical, lengthy drives. Third-down and red-zone execution will decide the spread, and both defenses have advantages.
Finally, the weather forecast projects sustained 14-to-17 MPH wins in New York City on Friday night with potential gusts of up to 25 MPH, adversely affecting the passing and kicking games.
Pick: Under 51.5
| | | |
Georgia State vs. UConn Pick
We have a Friday night Week 10 showdown in East Hartford, Connecticut, as the UConn Huskies (5-3) welcome in the Georgia State Panthers (2-5, 0-4 SBC). Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Georgia State enters this matchup having dropped 4 straight games after its shocking upset win over Vanderbilt in early September.
UConn, meanwhile, has had quite a successful season after finishing 3-9 a year ago. The Huskies find themselves on the cusp of bowl eligibility, which would be their 1st postseason trip since 2022.
It's worth noting these 2 teams played each other a season ago down in Atlanta in a game Georgia State won 35-14.
This time, UConn enters as a -8.5 favorite with an over/under of 48.
Can the Panthers go into UConn and pull off an upset win, or will the Huskies defend home turf and clinch a postseason berth at home?
Let's dive into my Georgia State vs. UConn predictions and college football picks for Friday, Nov. 1.
Georgia State Panthers
Dell McGee is in his first full season as head coach for the Panthers after taking over and securing a win in their bowl game a year ago.
He has not had the season he had hoped for given their recent struggles to secure a win. UConn offers a unique challenge, but this feels like a game he needs to win to try and salvage this season and get back on track.
With the coaching changes before the season, Georgia State had some players transfer out, including star running back Marcus Carroll, who's now at Missouri. Because of that, McGee has essentially been working with a new offense.
The Panthers started their season with Pitt transfer quarterback Christian Veilleux under center, but they have started to transition to their backup, Zach Gibson, in the last few weeks.
I would expect Gibson to continue to take the lion's share of snaps under center, as he has thrown for four touchdowns and no interceptions in essentially two starts.
He has helped improve this passing attack, which now ranks 63rd in Pass Success Rate. McGee puts a lot of trust in his quarterbacks, as they rank 37th in Pass Rate as well.
The offense struggles to connect on big plays and scoring, coming into this game at 92nd in Explosiveness.
They will need Gibson to continue to play well this week and keep the offense steady to stay in this game and potentially win this one outright.
The Panthers defense has struggled this season, allowing 32 points per game.
They have been one of the worst teams when it comes to getting off the field and limiting field goals when teams get into the red zone, ranking 133rd in Points Per Opportunity Allowed. This will be a problem against a UConn team that has been exceptional in that area.
The stronger part of this stop unit has been the run defense, where they rank 75th in Rush Success Rate allowed. However, the Panthers will need to improve in terms of giving up big plays, as they're 109th in Rush Explosiveness allowed.
This defense will need to play extremely well to slow the UConn offense down.
UConn Huskies
UConn head coach Jim Mora looks like he has finally started to hit his stride at UConn after a decent Year 1 followed by a down year a season ago. Now, he has his team poised to get back to a bowl game.
Mora has had a long football past, and he looks to be helping fix a Connecticut football program that has struggled in recent memory.
UConn has followed a similar offensive season as Georgia State, as it rolled out Nick Evers as its starting quarterback in Week 1 before turning to Joe Fagnano.
The Huskies are averaging 31.5 points per game, and Fagnano has been a major part of that. The signal-caller has thrown for 11 touchdowns and only three interceptions on the season, pacing this offense that ranks 97th in Success Rate.
The key stat that has improved with Fagnano as QB1 has been UConn's ability to connect on big plays, ranking 24th in Explosiveness. This Huskies offense has the ability to pop off and score on a big play at any moment.
It helps that they have a steady ground game led by Durell Robinson, who averages nearly eight yards per carry.
The Huskies defense has been much improved from a season ago when they gave up nearly 30 points per game. Now, they allow just over 20 points per game.
While the Huskies have been good at limiting points, they have not necessarily slowed teams down this season. They rank 97th in Success Rate allowed and 73rd in Explosiveness allowed.
Opponents can attack this defense and rack up yards, but UConn has been excellent at limiting touchdowns. It will need to continue that trend to come away with a big win here.
Georgia State vs. UConn Prediction
Ultimately, this game comes down to Finishing Drives both offensively and defensively.
UConn is hands down better on both sides of the ball in that area, and it starts with Robinson’s ability to punish teams on the ground as well as Fagnano’s steady presence.
I'll trust the Huskies to find their way into the end zone instead of settling for field goals.
Pick: UConn -8.5
| | | |
USF vs. Florida Atlantic Pick
By Cody Goggin
On Friday night, the South Florida Bulls (3-4, 1-2 AAC) will travel to Boca Raton to take on the Florida Atlantic Owls (2-5, 0-3) in an in-state AAC matchup. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2 from FAU Stadium.
These teams are both off to tough starts this season and will need to rebound to have a chance at becoming bowl-eligible.
The Bulls had dropped 3 straight games before picking up a 35-25 win over UAB last week. FAU, meanwhile, finds itself on a 2-game losing streak entering Friday night's AAC clash.
USF is favored in this matchup by 2.5 points with the total sitting at 49.5 points.
Let’s take a look at my USF vs. FAU predictions and college football picks for Friday, Nov. 1.
South Florida Bulls
USF enters this game at 3-4 on the season and 1-2 in AAC play after coming into the season with the fourth-best odds to win the conference title.
Its record is not impressive, but USF has played a difficult schedule with its two conference losses coming to two of the better teams in the AAC in Tulane and Memphis, and its other two losses coming at the hands of Miami and Alabama.
This team is likely better than its record or underlying stats show due to their strength of schedule.
Even with this tough schedule, USF’s offense has not been good. It ranks 125th in Success Rate and 127th in EPA Per Play on offense this season.
The Bulls primarily pass the ball and rank 126th in Pass Success Rate and 130th in EPA Per Pass this season. The run game has not been much better, ranking 105th in Rush Success Rate and 99th in EPA Per Rush.
The offensive line has been a major issue for USF this season, ranking 130th in PFF’s Run Blocking grade and 115th in PFF Pass Blocking grade.
Quarterback Byrum Brown has been out for over a month now without any update on his status. With Brown on the sideline, Bryce Archie has been starting in his place.
This has been a dramatic difference, as Brown averaged -0.14 EPA (Expected Points Added) per Dropback compared to -0.45 for Archie.
If Brown is playing, this is a different offense. But at this point, I wouldn’t count on seeing him this week.
Defensively, South Florida ranks 62nd in Success Rate allowed and 82nd in EPA Per Play allowed.
It's had dramatic run/pass splits, ranking eighth in Rush Success Rate allowed and 12th in EPA Per Rush allowed compared to 118th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 119th in EPA Per Pass allowed.
The Bulls have been strong up front, ranking 36th in PFF’s Pass Rushing grade and 66th in Rush Defense grades.
However, their secondary has been an issue, as they're 113th in PFF’s Coverage grades, which explains why they have had trouble stopping the pass this season despite their solid pass rush.
Florida Atlantic Owls
Florida Atlantic is still looking for its first conference win. The Owls' only wins this season have come against FCS Wagner and Florida International, which is among the worst teams in FBS.
The Owls rank 101st in Success Rate and 85th in EPA Per Play this season against the No. 95 strength of schedule, according to CFB Reference.
They're best on the ground, particularly at generating explosive plays, as they rank just 94th in Rush Success Rate but 28th in EPA Per Rush.
FAU primarily sticks to its ground attack, but when it does throw, it hasn’t gone well. The Owls sit 96th in Pass Success Rate and 111th in EPA Per Pass this season.
Quarterback Cam Fancher is averaging -0.11 EPA Per Dropback on the year with a 38% Pass Success Rate, which is well below average.
On the defensive side of the ball, FAU ranks 40th in Success Rate allowed and 33rd in EPA Per Play allowed.
It's been solid defending opposing aerial attacks, ranking 17th in Pass Success Rate allowed, 18th in EPA Per Pass allowed and 36th in PFF Coverage grade. FAU also ranks 24th in PFF’s Pass Rush grades, which could pose a mismatch against a bad USF offensive line.
The Owls have been worse against the run, coming in at 72nd in Rush Success Rate allowed and 75th in EPA per Rush allowed. They're 127th in PFF Run Defense grade and 111th in PFF Tackling grade, so this is where opponents want to attack this defense.
USF vs. Florida Atlantic Prediction
Florida Atlantic wants to run the ball. Unfortunately for the Owls, that's the strength of the USF defense.
If they want to score points in this matchup, they'll need to rely on Fancher to get it done through the air. Fancher hasn’t been good this season but will at least be facing a pass defense that has struggled.
South Florida runs a pass-heavy offensive scheme but hasn't done so effectively with Archie at quarterback.
Head coach Alex Golesh has been playing coy with announcing who will start at quarterback, but I’m going to operate under the assumption that Brown will still be sidelined.
The place to attack FAU’s defense is on the ground, but I don’t know that USF will be willing or able to do this.
The Bulls have been bad at run blocking this season and largely inefficient on the ground, so I think Florida Atlantic may have the upper hand here.
I would lean toward the under in this game due to these mismatches between offensive and defensive strengths and weaknesses between the two teams.
However, USF is the fastest team in the country in terms of seconds per play, and FAU is above average as well. That could lead to a higher-scoring game than expected — even with offenses that aren’t uber-efficient.
Instead, I’ll take Florida Atlantic in this matchup. I think the Owls have the better quarterback situation and defense in this matchup. They're currently two-point underdogs. but I would rather just play them on the moneyline at +120.
Pick: Florida Atlantic ML (+120 · Play to +105)
| | | |
San Diego State vs. Boise State Pick
By John Feltman
The Boise State Broncos (6-1) are coming off a massive win over UNLV, and they now have a clear path to gain an at-large bid for the College Football playoff.
The Broncos are getting set to host the incoming San Diego State Aztecs (3-4), who are 2-0 in Mountain West play.
The Aztecs fell short last week against the Washington State Cougars, but it was a valiant effort, considering they were massive underdogs before the matchup.
Oddsmakers have the Aztecs as 23.5-point underdogs, and the total set is at 57.5. The game kicks off at 8:00 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on FS1.
Read on for my San Diego State vs Boise State predictions and college football picks for their NCAAF Week 10 matchup.
San Diego State Aztecs
The Aztecs stunningly had a two-point lead late in the game against the Cougars last week, but Cougs quarterback John Mateer rallied his team to victory, scoring the final fourteen points of the contest.
It has been a rough season for the Aztecs, but they have yet to suffer a loss in conference play.
Well, that statement will no longer be valid after Friday night because there is no world where I envision the Aztecs pulling off the upset. They have too many questions on both sides of the ball.
Offensively, it's been an outright disaster from the beginning. The Aztecs rank 131st nationally in Rush Success Rate and 102nd in Pass Success Rate.
They rank 115th in Havoc allowed, nightmare fuel for head coach Sean Lewis, as the Bronco's defense ranks among the top 10 FBS squads in defensive Havoc. It's not only been complete ineptness with a lack of explosives, but even when the Aztecs enter the scoring area, they struggle to finish off drives with a touchdown.
Running back Marquez Cooper is having an excellent season, as he's up to eight touchdowns while averaging over five yards per carry. But the Aztecs only run the ball 54% of the time, and the one area you can try to expose the Bronco's defense is through the air.
Cooper will be the focus of the Broncos' defense in game prep, adding even more weight to quarterback Danny O'Neil's shoulders. O'Neil is having a fine season, racking up over 1200 yards through the air but just six touchdown passes to two interceptions.
The Broncos are vulnerable in the secondary but rank 27th in PFF's Coverage grades, so their success rate statistics on the defense side of the ball might be misleading.
The Aztecs love to go up-tempo under Sean Lewis' offensive system, but you are playing with fire if you are going to try to keep up in a track meet against the Broncos.
Defensively, it is another nightmare scenario for the Broncos. Not only are they going up against the best running back in the nation in Ashton Jeanty, but they struggle mightily to defend the run.
They are outside the top 100 teams nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards. Their secondary is a much superior unit, but the Broncos run the ball nearly 56% of the time.
They are a decent defense at preventing Finishing and Quality Drives and are 51st in tackling. My worry is that Jeanty can rip off nonstop explosive runs during the evening, which will force the defense to be in constant catch-up mode.
I can not back the Aztecs here; there are too many glaring concerns in their rush defense, and their offense's inconsistency will put them behind the chains for most of the game. If Lewis does not slow the game, it could get ugly quickly.
Boise State Broncos
Many will say the Broncos were fortunate to beat UNLV last week due to some questionable officiating, but they proved they were the best team in the conference. It is an exciting time in Boise, Idaho, as the Broncos can earn a spot in the College Football Playoff if they win out.
Heisman front-runner running back Ashton Jeanty has put up ridiculous video game numbers in 2024. Jeanty is averaging 8.76 YPC with 18 rushing touchdowns and almost 1400 yards on the ground through seven games.
That means he averages around 200 rushing yards and three scores per contest. That is unheard of, which is why it might be the rare case that a running back wins the Heisman Trophy at the conclusion of the season.
Jeanty is licking his chops because the Aztecs can not defend the run if their lives depended on it. No matter how loaded the box gets, Jeanty will shred the defense numerous times, and we could see his best performance of the season to date.
That is a lofty expectation, but the Bronco's offensive line will bully the Aztecs in the trench all evening long. The Broncos' passing attack through quarterback Maddux Madsen has also been impressive, as they rank 35th nationally in Pass Success Rate.
The Aztecs' secondary is the strength of their defense, but I have a feeling there will be numerous occasions when they focus too much on stopping Jeanty, and Madsen will have the ability to throw over the top, leading to explosive pass plays down the field.
The Bronco's offense is amongst the FBS best in Quality and Finishing Drives, ranking in the top 15 in both categories. 29 points is a bit of a disappointment for the Bronco's offense, which is what they scored last week against the Rebels.
Defensively, they should be able to stuff the Aztecs' running game. They've also created a ton of Havoc, and they should have their way with the miserable Aztec offensive front.
They've been a bit exposed in the secondary, but as I alluded to earlier, they rank 27th in PFF's Coverage grades, so I do not have too many concerns about them being exposed through the air.
San Diego State vs. Boise State Prediction
Instead of targeting the game's total, I am going to focus on the Broncos' total.
Not only is it a tremendous matchup for the offense, but their edges on the defensive side of the ball will set them up to dominate the field position battle.
The Aztecs rank outside the top 120 FBS teams in Special Teams, so their inability to be consistent in this area will help the Broncos' offense immensely.
The Broncos' defensive front will have their way with the Aztecs' offensive trench all night, and I would not be surprised to see them force a couple of turnovers.
That said, the offense has a dream matchup against the Aztecs' soft rushing defense, and I have a feeling Jeanty is going to put up another ridiculous video-game performance.
I would not be surprised to see them run up the score, especially with Jeanty in the heat of a Heisman Trophy race. They may let their foot off the gas a bit late, but I do not think that will stop them from accumulating a ton of offense early before that occurs.
That is why I will stay away from the spread, but that will be enough time for their offense to hang a crooked number, and they should bounce back from their 29-point performance last week.
If you are worried about them being flat after last week’s win, that is more reason to take the team total, just in case the offense takes a bit to wake up.
Pick: Boise State Team Total Over 40.5 (Play to 42)
