College Football Predictions, Picks for Friday
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 10:30 p.m. | |
  | 11 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Friday. Night. Lights.
There's something special about watching college football under the lights before Saturday's slate with wall-to-wall action, and tonight is no different.
We have four games on deck tonight, including an FCS to kick off the night, the Group of Five Game of the Year and a late-night Big Ten clash on the West Coast.
So, no matter where you're looking for your college football fix, we have you covered.
Let's dive into our Friday college football picks and predictions — and be sure to check back tomorrow for full college football betting coverage of Saturday's enormous slate.
Yale vs. Penn Prediction for Friday
By Joshua Nunn
The Yale Bulldogs (3-2) travel to take on the Penn Quakers (2-3) in Friday night Ivy League action. The game kicks off at 7 p.m. ET and can be seen on ESPNU.
While there's no betting line as of writing, Yale is projected as a short 2-point road favorite in the contest with a total projected at 56.5.
Both of these teams come in at 0-2 in league play, so this game becomes crucial with both teams looking to battle back into contention for an Ivy League title. The loser will be completely out of contention to win the “Crown of the Ancient Eight.”
Where does the betting value lie here? Let's take a look at my Yale vs. Penn predictions and college football picks for Friday, Oct. 25.
Yale Bulldogs
Yale comes in after a nice home win last weekend over Lehigh. The Bulldog offense really shined in the first half with four long scoring drives en route to a 28-10 halftime lead.
That lead was extended in the third quarter after a long 57-yard touchdown run by Tre Peterson.
While Yale won this game handily, Lehigh moved the football consistently against the Bulldog defense. Yale was gashed on the ground again in this game, as the Mountain Hawks ran for 250 yards and three touchdowns.
The Yale stop unit has played below expectation all season, and the poor play has already cost it a victory in a loss against Dartmouth.
Pennsylvania Quakers
Penn comes in 2-3 off another tough loss last week to Columbia.
The Quakers were in a close game in the second half but couldn't complete the comeback after two first-half turnovers spotted Columbia a 14-0 lead.
Veteran Penn quarterback Aidan Sayin threw for 241 yards with those two interceptions, but the defense stiffened in the second half by keeping the Lions out of the end zone.
Penn has had plenty of problems this season, but the most concerning unit has been the offense.
The Quakers were projected to have potentially the best offense in the Ivy League with a veteran quarterback, solid skill-position players and continuity on the offensive line.
But as this season has played out, I haven’t seen a more disappointing unit in the Ivy League than this Quaker offense. They could really use a game against the Yale defense to get their season back on track.
Yale vs. Penn Pick
I'm going to play Penn as a home underdog in this matchup.
Yale has been too inconsistent on defense this season to warrant being a road favorite in this battle between two desperate teams in need of a conference win.
Yale allows 435 yards and 33.4 points per game and has really struggled to stop the run. The Bulldog front seven has been pushed around by weaker foes, giving up 184 rushing yards per game while surrendering 11 touchdowns on the ground.
Yale has really struggled to create negative plays against its opponents this year as well, registering 20 tackles for loss and four sacks on the season.
Penn protects the quarterback well, giving up only six sacks this season on 164 dropbacks.
The Penn ground game will be paced by Malachi Hosley, who has 585 yards with a 5.9 yards-per-carry average.
Yale has also struggled to get teams off the field on third down this season while allowing 44% of third-down attempts to be converted. Penn has played its best football on third and fourth down this year, converting 45% of those third downs and 80% of fourth-down attempts.
Offensively, Yale comes in averaging 386 yards and 33 points per game. The Bulldogs have been consistent each week and have received decent quarterback play from both Grant Jordan and Brogan McCaughey while deploying a two-quarterback system.
They have combined to throw for 1,088 yards with a 9:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Yale has been balanced on offense but certainly wants to establish the run to set up their passing game. This could be difficult against a Penn run defense that's only allowing 118 yards per game on the ground.
A real interesting matchup will be the Yale offense against Penn's red-zone defense. Penn has done well to limit teams to field goals in the red zone, allowing only 10 scores in 23 trips this year. That will be important because the Bulldogs have made a habit of cashing in with seven points while moving it inside the 20.
Both teams have a lot to play for here, but I trust the Yale defense least in this spot.
This is a great opportunity for Penn's offense to finally play up to preseason expectations. At home on a Friday night, the Quakers get their Ivy League season back on track.
Pick: Penn +2
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Louisville vs. Boston College Prediction for Friday
The Louisville Cardinals (4-3, 2-2 ACC) look to rebound from their loss to Miami when they travel to Chestnut Hill to take on the Boston College Eagles (4-3, 1-2) on Friday night. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
The Cardinals came up short in their upset bid against Miami last weekend to fall to 4-3 on the season.
Head coach Jeff Brohm certainly had higher aspirations than where Louisville is currently sitting in the ACC, and this isn't the greatest of spots either on a short week with a road trip to Clemson on deck.
Boston College started out incredibly hot this season by beating Florida State on the road, but lately, everything has gone downhill for the Eagles.
They have lost their last two games to Virginia and Virginia Tech, so they really need a win on Friday night to get their season back on track.
Louisville enters as a -7.5 favorite with the over/under set at 53.5.
Continue reading for my Louisville vs. Boston College predictions and college football picks for Friday, Oct. 25.
Louisville Cardinals
Louisville couldn't stop anything Miami did in its loss last week. The Hurricanes got whatever they wanted offensively, as it averaged 9.3 yards per play. But most importantly for this game, they averaged six yards per carry and went for well over 200 yards rushing.
That's important because Boston College runs the ball at a very high rate, and Thomas Castellanos is a very dangerous runner at quarterback.
Louisville has faced a lot of mobile quarterbacks this season but hasn't done a good job of keeping them in check. If you remove sack yardage, this is what some of them have done to the Cardinals defense:
| Opposing QB | Rush Yards | Yards per Carry |
|---|---|---|
| Haynes King, Georgia Tech | 58 | 4.5 |
| Riley Leonard, Notre Dame | 55 | 4.1 |
| Kevin Jennings, SMU | 109 | 8.4 |
| Cam Ward, Miami | 48 | 6.9 |
The other problem Louisville has had is its secondary has really struggled once it reached the tougher part of the schedule. Louisville has allowed opposing quarterbacks to average 8.2 yards per attempt with a rank of 85th in EPA/Pass allowed.
Brohm's offense, though, has had no problems moving the ball.
The Cardinals rank 13th nationally in EPA/Play because they have ripped off big play after big play. They rank second in the country in Explosiveness, and a lot of that has to do with Tyler Shough's ability to throw the ball down the field.
He's been one of the better quarterbacks in college football this season, putting up a PFF Passing Grade of 89.9 with 15 big-time throws compared to only four turnover-worthy plays.
The Texas Tech transfer has also been superb when throwing the ball over 10 yards in the air.
Boston College Eagles
Boston College has really struggled to run the ball this season, especially over the last few games.
The Eagles averaged under 3.5 yards per carry against both Virginia and Virginia Tech, which meant all the pressure has been on Castellanos to beat teams with his arm. He hasn't found a way to do that yet.
However, Louisville has a very average run defense, and most importantly, hasn't been the best at neutralizing mobile quarterbacks.
Still, Boston College's best path to victory here is throwing the ball given how bad Louisville's defense has been.
Castellanos loves to throw the ball down the field, but he's not always the most accurate passer. He's averaging 9.4 yards per attempt, and almost 40% of his pass attempts this season have gone for at least 10 yards in the air.
That's why Boston College ranks seventh in explosive passing. It's worth noting, though, that Castellanos has seven turnover-worthy plays on the season.
Defensively, Boston College has been really stout up front, ranking 21st in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
However, in their last game against Virginia Tech, the Hokies ran all over them for accumulating 368 yards on the ground while averaging 9.2 yards per carry.
Louisville ranks 26th in EPA/Rush and is coming off back-to-back games against Miami and Virginia where it has averaged over five yards per carry.
The Eagles are likely going to have some difficulties shutting down Shough in this game because Boston College's secondary has been well below average and has faced only one above-average quarterback this season in Missouri's Brady Cook. Cook ended up averaging 8.8 yards per attempt while completing 70% of his passes and posting his best PFF Passing Grade of the season.
Louisville vs. Boston College Pick
Neither of these teams rates highly in terms of a PFF Tackling Grade or generating Havoc, which typically means there are a lot of missed tackles and big plays.
Castellanos and Shough have fantastic matchups against the opposing secondary, and this game won't end with Castellanos throwing a bunch of screens or five-yard outs. He's going to attack Louisville deep, but the Cardinals have proven this season that they can't stop big plays through the air.
Meanwhile, Shough should be able to continue to be effective in throwing the ball deep. Boston College's secondary ranks 65th in Explosive Passing allowed even with facing a lot of below-average quarterbacks.
If last weekend's performance for Boston College's run defense is any indication, then Louisville's rushing attack — which has been impressive over the last few games — will run wild in this game.
The pace is going to be slower than normal, but there will be a lot of big plays in this game.
I have 56.3 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 53 points and would play it to 54.
Pick: Over 53 (Play to 54)
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Boise State vs. UNLV Prediction for Friday
By Brett Pund
The No. 17 Boise State Broncos (5-1) and UNLV Rebels (6-1) meet in Las Vegas on Friday night for one of the biggest Group of 5 matchups of the season.
The Broncos only have the 1 37-34 loss at Oregon as the lone blemish on their schedule, sporting a 5-1 record and 2-0 start in the Mountain West Conference.
Meanwhile, the Rebels also have the lone 44-41 overtime loss in nonconference action to Syracuse to go with six wins on the season.
This is a rematch of last year’s Mountain West Championship, and with the conference and playoff ramifications, we should get a great battle in Allegiant Stadium.
Let's dive in and find out my Boise State vs. UNLV predictions and college football picks for Friday, Oct. 25.
Boise State Broncos
Coming into the year, Boise State was a popular pick to be the G5 representative in the new playoff format. The three-point loss against the Ducks doesn’t leave much more room for error, but I do expect the Broncos to be in the running by the end of the year.
It helps when you have arguably the best player in the country on your roster at running back with Ashton Jeanty. The Heisman frontrunner leads the nation in rushing yards (1,248), yards after contact (914), and rushing touchdowns (17).
The numbers speak for themselves, but it is also the explosiveness that makes him even more exciting to watch. He is the only player with four rushing scores of 70-plus yards, which means he has the potential to score on every touch.
Meanwhile, quarterback Maddux Madsen has also played well. He leads the MWC and ranks 29th nationally in pass efficiency rating at 152.8.
This duo should be looking to stay hot in this high-scoring affair.
UNLV Rebels
The turnaround that coach Barry Odom has led at UNLV in just two seasons has been remarkable. The 15 wins in 21 games under Odom are the most victories over any two-season span for the school since the 1984-85 campaigns.
The records don’t stop there for the Rebels. They have won their first four road games in a season for the first time ever and set a school record last week with their sixth straight road victory.
Now, Odom has his sights on another new mark of downing a ranked opponent. The last triumph over a Top 25 foe came against Arizona State back in 2008.
Yes, Hajj-Malik Williams has stolen the spotlight with his play since becoming the starter, but one interesting wrinkle for UNLV has been Ricky White III on special teams.
White leads the nation with his school-record three blocked kicks on punts this season, which could be important when trying to steal an extra possession here.
Boise State vs. UNLV Pick
The big question here is how either team gets stops in this game, and I don’t have an answer. The total is a high one for the full game, so I’m targeting another bet in this spot.
With that said, my best bet is for the first half to fly over its total of 31.5 at DraftKings. I would bet that up to 33.5, and I also don’t hate the yes on the prop of both teams to score 30-plus points at +140 odds or better.
We’ve seen both teams get into early shootouts this season. For UNLV, this same bet would have cashed in three of four games with Williams under center, with those contests averaging 35 points in the first half.
Meanwhile, the same can be said for Boise. The Broncos’ games have averaged 37.7 points per opening half, with this play cashing in four of six matchups.
When you add it all up, both rank inside the Top 15 in the country in first-half points per game. There are also a couple of key advantages for both offenses.
For the visitors, UNLV ranks 113th in the FBS in Finishing Drives defensively. The Rebels are also in the Bottom 20 among P5 programs in Rush Explosiveness allowed, which is not good against Jeanty.
When UNLV has the ball, I expect Hajj-Malik Williams to have success against a Boise defense that is 100th in Pass Success Rate allowed. It also doesn’t help the Broncos that they are 122nd in PFF’s Tackling grades.
In the MWC Championship game last season, there were 48 points in the opening period before the scoring died after halftime. I’m backing that to happen again here in the rematch.
Pick: First-Half Over 31.5 (Play to 33.5)
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Rutgers vs. USC Prediction for Friday
By Doug Ziefel
It's safe to say that one team is going to get back on track in this matchup. The Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-3) and the USC Trojans (3-4) both come into this game on three-game losing streaks and face off at 11 p.m. ET on FOX on Friday.
Rutgers showed some heart last week as it battled back against UCLA. It was down 35-19 entering the fourth quarter and closed the gap to three before the clock struck zero.
USC comes into this game off a tough loss. The Trojans blew a two-touchdown lead to Maryland in the fourth quarter, as the Terps put together two quick scoring drives to escape with the 29-28 win.
The Trojans are favored by 14 points on the spread at home with the moneyline at -575. Meanwhile, the total sits at 56.5 points.
Will the Trojans regain their form in Pasadena? Here are my Rutgers vs. USC predictions and my college football picks for Friday.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
For the Scarlet Knights, it all starts on the ground with Kyle Monangai. Monangai has carried this offense, rushing for 845 yards and scoring 10 times through just seven games.
He'll have the opportunity to keep chugging against the Trojans' defense, as USC ranks 86th in yards per rush allowed and 70th in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
Additionally, Rutgers' ground game should be consistent throughout this contest, as the Scarlet Knights have the edge in the trenches. They outrank the Trojans 44 to 69 in Line Yards on this side of the ball.
However, the offensive success won't just be limited to the ground game. Rutgers will be able to throw the ball, even with a struggling Athan Kaliakmanis under center.
USC ranks 120th in sack rate and 129th in opponent completion percentage allowed. Rutgers will put together multiple methodical drives on this Trojans' defense and can control the game with its rushing attack.
USC Trojans
On the other side of the ball, the Trojans are a contrast to Scarlet Knights. USC is throwing the ball at the fifth-highest rate in the country this season.
The Trojans have full confidence in quarterback Miller Moss, and the former blue-chip recruit hasn't led them astray. Moss is 40th in the country in completion percentage and holds a 14-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The Scarlet Knights' secondary has been susceptible this season, as well. They rank 98th in opponent completion percentage allowed and 66th in opponent yards per pass allowed, which has culminated in a rank of 65 in Passing Success Rate.
However, the Trojans' biggest edge will be on the ground — if they choose to operate there. Rutgers is 113th in yards per rush allowed and is outranked 15 to 89 in line yards.
So, just like the Scarlet Knights, the Trojans will have the opportunity to move the ball methodically downfield with an even bigger push up-front. We should see them do so, as Rutgers has yet to prove itself against Big Ten opposition.
Rutgers vs. USC Pick
We've seen this total move both ways since opening, as it's been as low as 54.5 and as high as 57.
That's a testament to the amount of offensive success we should see from both sides in this matchup.
However, as I explained in both sections, each team has a significant edge on the ground, which will allow for long scoring drives with rushing success on early downs and third-down conversions through the air.
The spread will come down to which defense can adjust quickly enough, but either way, these offenses should eat a ton of clock and keep this game under the listed total.
Pick: Under 56.5 (Play to 54.5)
