College Football Player Props for Friday, October 11
- UNLV's Jai'Den Thomas Over 40 (+105) + Over 50 Rushing Yards (+200)
- 1+ Field Goal Made in Every Quarter of Utah vs. Arizona State
It’s Friday night, which means it’s time to get exotic while busting out those prop ladders.
Hop aboard for an over on UNLV's Jai'Den Thomas and a projected field-goal fest in the desert featuring the only ranked team on the board.
Read on for my top college football player props and exotics for Friday, Oct. 11.
UNLV vs. Utah State Player Prop
Jai'Den Thomas Over 40 (+105) + Over 50 Rushing Yards (+200)
UNLV is an interesting team to handicap because of its recent quarterback change.
Matthew Sluka helped UNLV steam out to a 3-0 start, but he was far from efficient as a passer. He put a hard ceiling on any Ricky White III props, dropping the star’s averages down to 3.3 receptions and 42 yards per game.
The same was true in the run game where he was a “ball hog,” taking any and all opportunities to run the football.
But the NIL fiasco that played out between Sluka and UNLV set the stage for a new quarterback and a new offensive outlook.
With Hajj-Malik Williams spinning it, the Runnin’ Rebs are averaging 7.6 yards per play and 50 points per game. He’s unlocked White's, whose average output with HMW as UNLV’s QB1 is now 10 receptions and 131 yards per contest.
Unfortunately, the market has caught up to White's props and there's no longer any value on UNLV’s No. 11.
But it’s not just the passing game that's popping — the run game has also opened up.
Not only is HMW an excellent runner, but he also makes the correct read time after time. That means runners on the receiving end of zone reads and option pitches are finding open green spaces.
This brings us to Jet Thomas’ rushing totals.
Since HMW took over, Thomas is averaging 7.2 yards per carry. He's a big play waiting to happen with lethal acceleration and lateral quickness.
With a big sample size, dating back to Thomas' freshman season last fall, we know that offensive coordinator Brennan Marion wants to give him between seven and 12 carries per game, particularly when facing a porous run defense.
Utah State is lifeless on the defensive side of the football. The Aggies' run defense grades out 132nd, per PFF, and 126th in yards per carry allowed.
Last week, Boise State's Ashton Jeanty predictably shredded USU. He did almost all of his damage early in a 62-30 blowout, finishing with a line of 13/186/3. The week before against lowly Temple, three Owls eclipsed 40 yards on the ground. And the week before that, two Utah backs ran for over 75 yards on the ground.
I foresee a ton of offensive success for UNLV, and I love the potential of winning this bet in a single carry. Thomas gives us that potential.
I’m playing him over 40 rushing yards at +105 and over 50 rushing yards for a half-unit at +200.
Utah vs. Arizona State Prop
1+ FGM in Every Quarter of Utah vs. Arizona State (+1300)
This is a tricky prop bet to hit, but because it’s fairly exotic, the odds are overly generous.
Let’s start with the fact that both the Utes and Sun Devils attempt a lot of field goals. They each average 2.2 field-goal attempts per game, which is top-20 nationally.
Without Cam Rising, Utah's offense has become a field-goal factory. The Utes have banged home seven field goals on eight attempts in the last three games without their QB1.
Utah has become run-centric without Rising, which is bad news when drawing Arizona State. The Sun Devils sport the 20th-best run defense in the country, third in the Big 12. I foresee drives stalling late and Utah kicker Cole Becker trotting onto the field regularly on Friday night.
Arizona State has also put its special teams to work this season. Ian Hershey and Carston Kieffer have attempted 11 field goals this season, four from 40-plus yards out.
And when it comes to the defense they’re facing, the Sun Devils have their work cut out for them. Utah reliably has a top-25 defense yet again under Morgan Scalley. The Utes rank 18th in Defensive Success Rate and seventh in Stuff Rate.
I target a few of these field goal props per season, and I approach them with the same checklist. High field-goal rate? Check. Quality defenses that won’t allow walk-in touchdowns? Check. And finally, I want it to be as close to a coin-flip as possible to add in the possibility of both teams playing for a late field goal to win it.
With the spread set at three and the total hovering in the mid-40s, I have all the conditions I could hope for in this scenario.
I’d also like to point out that there's a unique hedge opportunity should we get one field goal in each of the first three quarters. There are some live markets that allow you to bet the nature of the next score or the outcome of every drive. This allows you to hedge by selecting a touchdown in a TD vs. FG market or both a TD/No Score in a three-way market.
Holding a 13-1 ticket in the fourth quarter with this bet still live is a great place to be.
