Championship Week is upon us, which means we’re running out of time to take advantage of the player prop market.
On Friday, I’ve spread out the risk between the AAC, Conference USA and Mountain West Championships. We’ll start with high-risk, high-reward options in the AAC and CUSA and return to a tried-and-true Ashton Jeanty play in the nightcap out west.
Some of these plays have significantly longer odds than others, so please make sure to bet responsibly.
Let's dive into my Friday college football player props, including picks for Boise State's Jeanty, Tulane's Makhi Hughes and Army's Bryson Daily.
Friday College Football Player Props
- First 2 TDs Parlay: Hughes & Daily (+1280)
- Opening Drive Parlay: Jacksonville State Punt & Western Kentucky FG Attempt (+1080)
- Ashton Jeanty 1st Boise TD Scorer + Over 171.5 Rushing Yards (+185)
Army vs. Tulane Player Prop
First Two Touchdowns Parlay: Bryson Daily followed by Makhi Hughes (+1280) OR Makhi Hughes followed by Bryson Daily (+1260)
Instead of picking one of these two options, I’m splitting a unit, placing a half-unit on each.
Let’s start with the method of scoring. I love rushing touchdowns in this game because of the weather. It’s going to be frigid and windy. The second part is likely to ground both passing attacks. This should help Army’s secondary avoid giving up chunk plays to Darian Mensah and the Green Wave’s speedy trio of wide receivers.
Army has only allowed seven pass plays of 30-plus yards this season, and if winds gust off the Hudson into the 10-15 MPH range, deep shots are going to be tricky to connect on.
While Army has done a fine job corralling opposing passing attacks (32nd in Pass Success Rate), the Cadets have gotten exposed when they finally faced an elite rushing team.
Notre Dame ran through Jeff Monken’s team like a hot knife through butter, averaging nearly 10 yards per carry with 273 yards and five touchdowns.
Notre Dame ranks 10th in rush blocking, per PFF, and Tulane isn’t far behind at 15th. And like the Irish, Tulane has a home run hitter at running back. Makhi Hughes terrorized the AAC this season, running up 1,306 yards on the ground with 17 total touchdowns. And last week against Memphis, he was largely unused, so he’ll be fresh in this game.
He’s far and away the best bet to be Tulane’s first touchdown scorer (+160) and can do it on the ground or via a reception.
Now onto Bryson Daily, a one-man goal-line rushing package.
Daily helped the Black Knights run the table in the AAC by punching in 25 rushing touchdowns in 10 games. Tulane has struggled against above-average rushing teams, and Army certainly qualifies.
Army remains a fine-tuned rushing attack, ranking inside the top five in Rushing Success, Line Yards, Stuff Rate and Quality Drives.
In Tulane’s bouts with Kansas State, Louisiana, Memphis and Oklahoma the TU run defense allowed over 200 yards and two rushing scores per game.
I would play each parlay option down to +1100.
Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State Prop
Opening Drive Parlay: Jacksonville State Punt & Western Kentucky Field Goal Attempt (+1080)
These two teams played last week, and that performance is informing this play.
Jacksonville State lost star quarterback Tyler Huff to injury. He was the perfect triggerman for RichRod’s spread option offense, passing for over 2,000 yards and rushing for over 1,100 yards with 24 total touchdowns.
Huff is listed as questionable with his ankle injury. If he plays, he may be limited, and if he sits, JSU is at a distinct disadvantage.
Logan Smothers is a major downgrade at quarterback, and his passing limitations will allow WKU to stack the box as it did last week during its 19-17 upset of JSU. The Gamecocks punted eight times last week against the Toppers, a season-high.
On the Western side of this parlay, we need its opening drive to end in a field goal attempt. It helps that the Hilltoppers have one of the best kickers in America.
Lucas Carneiro was a Lou Groza Award semifinalist and connected on all five of his field goal attempts from fifty-plus, including the game-winner in the closing seconds last week.
Head coach Tyson Helton has supreme faith in Carneiro, which means if WKU can move the ball inside the JSU 40-yard line on its opening drive, we have a great chance of seeing Carneiro jog onto the field.
The zero and double zero on this roulette wheel is a turnover. If we lose a fumble or toss an interception on either drive, we’re cooked. Last week, there were only two turnovers between these two teams. Both the Toppers and Cocks are top-30 in turnovers generated, so this did factor into my thought process on this bet.
If you can get this prop above +1000, it’s worth the risk. Anything less should be a pass.
UNLV vs. Boise State Player Prop
Ashton Jeanty 1st Boise TD Scorer + Over 171.5 Rushing Yards (+185)
A lot has been made about UNLV’s performance against Jeanty back in October. The Rebels held the soon-to-be Heisman finalist to 3.9 yards per carry. It was far and away the best performance against Jeanty this season, but it comes with an explanation.
Boise was down multiple starters on the offensive line, and Jeanty was banged up in the game.
The line is as healthy as it’s been since the opener, and Jeanty looked like his old self against Oregon State last weekend, tearing off 226 yards on the ground.
Even with the right scheme and run fits, I put project Jeanty to break two bills against UNLV, making his rushing total far too low to pass up on. The upgrade along the line is that meaningful when you pair it with Jeanty’s superhuman tackle-breaking ability.
He’s forced 123 missed tackles on rushing attempts this season, which is 22% more than the second-place finisher in that stat (ULM’s Ahmad Hardy). His PFF elusive rating of 214.3 is otherworldly. Only Javonte Williams (UNC, Denver Broncos) and Travis Etienne (Clemson, Jacksonville Jaguars) have come within 10 points of Jeanty’s mark.
Jeanty has been priced prohibitively in the player prop market for months, but this parlay has value and can be hedged with a .1 unit play on tight end Matt Lauter to score the Broncos first touchdown.
From a game-script perspective, Lauter is well-positioned to benefit from UNLV selling out to stop Jeanty in the red zone. He has reeled in six touchdowns this season, and the last three have all come in the red zone.
I would play this parlay down to +175.
