In the nine-year history of the College Football Playoff, we've never seen anything like the betting markets for the Peach Bowl. Georgia is the biggest public side of the 26 total College Football Playoff games since its inception.
The Bulldogs have been anywhere between a 6.5- and 7-point favorite over Ohio State since opening back on Dec. 4. Until Friday that is, when Georgia moved down to -6 for the first time.
Early market data via Action Labs, showed Georgia was receiving about 90% of the tickets during the first few days of betting, but even around Christmas, Georgia still took about 80-82% of the action against the Buckeyes.
As we currently stand, Georgia (-6) has 73% of the tickets against Ohio State (down from 78% early Friday).
College Football Playoff History
The next biggest public side after Georgia would be Clemson in the 2020-21 Sugar Bowl against … Ohio State. Clemson closed as 7-point favorites and lost, 49-28.
Biggest Public Side in College Football Playoff History
- 73%: Georgia (-6) over OSU
- 67%: Clemson (-7) over OSU, 2020-21 Sugar — OSU 49-28
- 63%: Alabama (-3.5) over UGA, 2017-18 Title — ALA 26-23
- 63%: Alabama (-12.5) over WAS, 2016-17 Peach — ALA 24-7
Over the last five years, Georgia has closed with 75% of tickets or more 14 times. It's 9-5 against the spread in those games, putting the Dawgs in the top 10 in ATS profitability as a 75%+ public side.
The Buckeye Way
Looking at the market from a Buckeye perspective. Ohio State has only closed with 25% of tickets or fewer three times since 2005, and it's 3-0 against the spread in those games. The last time OSU closed with 25% of tickets or fewer was back in November 2017 when it beat Michigan State, 48-3.
Ohio State's lowest spread ticket percentage came all the way back in 2009 as an 8.5-point underdog when it received 19% of spread bets against Wisconsin. The Buckeyes won, 33-29.
Possible Bowl History?
Going back into bowl history overall, 21 total teams have closed with a spread ticket percentage of 75% or more since 2005. Those public sides went an even 10-10-1 ATS but are covering the spread by a positive 2.83 points per game.
Here are the six biggest public sides according to spread ticket percentage via Action Labs since 2005 — time to see if Georgia can make history:
80% of tickets: Georgia State (-6) vs. Ball State
2021 Camellia Bowl · Georgia State won, 51-20.
79% of tickets: Arkansas (-3.5) vs, Penn State
2021 Outback Bowl · Arkansas won, 24-10.
79% of tickets: Mississippi State (-6) vs. NC State.
2015 Belk Bowl · Mississippi State won, 51-28.
79% of tickets: Western Kentucky (-3.5) vs. Central Michigan.
2014 Bahamas Bowl · Western Kentucky won, 49-48.
78% of tickets: Minnesota (-6) vs. West Virginia.
2021 Guaranteed Rate Bowl · Minnesota won, 18-6.
78% of tickets: Appalachian State (-17) vs. UAB.
2019 New Orleans Bowl · Appalachian State won, 31-17.
