Georgia vs Alabama Odds
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -112 | 48.5 -108o / -112u | -130 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -108 | 48.5 -108o / -112u | +110 |
The long-running commentary on Kirby Smart's tenure at Georgia is that he has recreated the "Death Star" that is Alabama football.
Coming straight from a role as the defensive coordinator, Smart inherited a Georgia program treading water in the SEC East. The Bulldogs have since won two national titles and created one of the longest winning streaks in recent college football history.
Not only was the "Death Star" rebuilt, but Georgia has since been called Alabama 2.0 despite owning a record of 1-5 against former Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban since 2017.
Alabama is under new management, as the Crimson Tide were quick to pull Kalen DeBoer after of a national title game appearance with the Washington Huskies.
DeBoer is best known for developing one of the most innovative offenses from a Success Rate and Expected Points Added perspective.
Georgia enters as a -2 favorite on the spread with the over/under sitting at 48.5.
Let's dive into my Georgia vs. Alabama predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Sept. 28.
Georgia Bulldogs Football
Smart entered the bye week in a perfect position to motivate the Bulldogs, coming off a one-point victory over Kentucky with Texas becoming the new No. 1 in the AP Poll.
Health has also played a factor on both sides of the ball, starting with the running backs against Clemson.
Tate Ratledge was also considered one of the best offensive linemen in the nation before leaving the second quarter of the Kentucky game with a sprained left ankle.
The All-American will miss a handful of games, as replacement Micah Morris is expected to play snaps at right guard. Morris was exceptional in pass-block grading, but creating open lanes for the rushing attack was the primary reason the Wildcats nearly upset Georgia.
The offensive line and running back stable have failed to produce any metric inside the top 60 through a quarter of the season.
Although Trevor Etienne and Nate Frazier average at least 3.7 yards after contact, the Bulldogs sit outside the top 60 in Rushing Success Rate, Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
The trench has been elite in protecting quarterback Carson Beck, who has produced just a single turnover-worthy play compared to seven touchdowns this season.
Carson Beck 🎯 pic.twitter.com/u7sgPMblkd
— Speak Up (@_SpeakU) September 19, 2024
However, Beck has struggled to create big-time throws, leaving a stable of targets to do the heavy lifting in moving the chains for offensive coordinator Mike Bobo.
Slot Dominic Lovett and wideout Arian Smith lead in targets and yards per route run, while Miami transfer Colbie Young paces all targets with two receiving touchdowns.
Beck's lack of big-time throws shines through when it comes to Georgia's number in on-target analytics. The Bulldogs signal-caller ranks 116th in hitting targets in stride.
There could be positive news from a health standpoint on the defensive side of the ball. Considered the best player on defense, Mykel Williams suffered an ankle injury in the season opener against Clemson but has been practicing this week after missing two games.
Smart noted that he has taken light reps, but his timeline remains unknown.
Other possible returns on the defensive interior include Jordan Hall, who has not played this season thanks to a stress fracture in both legs. Meanwhile, Warren Brinson logged three snaps against Clemson and should be available after two straight weeks of practice.
The numbers against the pass have been much more productive for the defense. Georgia ranks top-10 in allowing pass explosives and Opponent Passing Success Rate.
While the Havoc and trench numbers have sagged against a strength of schedule that sits at 43rd, the Bulldogs continue to be elite in Passing Downs Success Rate. The secondary hasn't logged an abundance of pass breakups, but the Dawgs still rank 11th in contested catches allowed.
Alabama Crimson Tide Football
DeBoer was adamant in his Wednesday press conference that putting the ball in the end zone is the key to the offense against Georgia. The new Alabama head coach has done a fine job of cashing in on scoring opportunities thus far, averaging 5.6 points on 20 possessions crossing the opponent's 40-yard line.
Like most teams looking to find continuity in the trench, the Crimson Tide struggled with the offensive line through the first two games.
Injury, position swapping and pure inefficiency drove down rush- and pass-blocking numbers. However, the return of Kadyn Proctor to left tackle gave Alabama a heavy advantage in the trench in a rout of Wisconsin.
Alabama LT Kadyn Proctor (#74) was literally surfing on the defender at the end 😂 pic.twitter.com/lMgeHdcXK4
— Ryan Roberts (@RiseNDraft) September 15, 2024
Quarterback Jalen Milroe has been near flawless through three games, recording the only turnover-worthy play of the season in the opener against Western Kentucky. The junior is still perfect on passes over 20 yards, continuing a mistake-free season from 2023.
The biggest knock on the Crimson Tide signal-caller has been mid-range passing — an important aspect against Georgia's expected quarters coverage package. With only seven passing attempts between 10 and 19 yards, it's still to be determined if Milroe has improved on shorter routes.
DeBoer has a highly explosive passing attack when Milroe is protected, as the top four targets easily eclipse more than two yards per route run. Kobe Prentice, Caleb Odom and Germie Bernard have combined for 26 targets and a couple of touchdowns thus far.
But the real story out of Tuscaloosa is the emergence of 17-year-old Ryan Williams, who hauled in four touchdowns from Milroe and led Alabama to the 16th-most explosive passing attack in the nation.
Defensive coordinator Kane Wommack has kept the Crimson Tide stiff on defense. Alabama ranks top-10 in numerous categories against opponent rush and pass attempts.
Opposing offenses have failed to create explosives or move the chains, as the Crimson Tide defense has one of the lowest rates of standard downs attempts in FBS.
Edge LT Overton has doubled every other defensive player's total in creating pressures, while Keon Sabb and Malachi Moore have two pass breakups apiece from the safety position.
The problem comes in the strength of opposing offenses. South Florida, Western Kentucky and Wisconsin all reside outside the top 60 of SP+ offensive ranks.
Georgia vs Alabama Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia and Alabama match up statistically:
Georgia Offense vs. Alabama Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 66 | 18 | |
| Line Yards | 66 | 26 | |
| Pass Success | 34 | 14 | |
| Havoc | 27 | 19 | |
| Finishing Drives | 14 | 8 | |
| Quality Drives | 18 | 5 | |
Alabama Offense vs. Georgia Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 71 | 84 | |
| Line Yards | 81 | 64 | |
| Pass Success | 28 | 5 | |
| Havoc | 56 | 50 | |
| Finishing Drives | 3 | 7 |  |
| Quality Drives | 45 | 16 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 39 | 32 |
| PFF Coverage | 39 | 12 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 4 | 84 |
| Middle 8 | 5 | 1 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.5 (120) | 27.8 (71) |
| Rush Rate | 46% (100) | 65% (14) |
Georgia vs Alabama Betting Pick & Prediction
The battle between Georgia and Alabama will be decided in one critical area of the field: the trenches.
Both teams have issues in producing a successful rushing attack, with each using a heavy amount of inside zone that has not been supported by the offensive lines.
However, that changed for a healthy Alabama trench against Wisconsin. The Crimson Tide produced a 59% Success Rate in 32 rushing attempts with an average of 5.9 yards per play.
Georgia's rout of Clemson in the season opener came via air assault, as the Bulldogs posted just two rushing attempts over 20 yards against the Tigers.
There are heavy advantages against the run on the Alabama side, thanks to a combined 26 stops from linebackers Deontae Lawson and Jihaad Campbell. In particular, Lawson ranks as the 13th-best individual defender in college football in terms of defensive rush grading, while Georgia doesn't have a single player in the top 200, per PFF.
These numbers could improve for the Bulldogs defense, but keep tabs on Williams and the health of other defensive line players.
Another key to victory for Alabama is defending the slot, as Lovett leads the Bulldogs in targets while supporting a healthy 2.3 yards per route run.
However, the Dawgs may struggle to hit the slot based on the Crimson Tide's personnel. Alabama fields three of the top 200 individual defensive players who have played at least 40 coverage snaps in the slot in Moore, Sabb and DeVonta Smith.
When handicapping the game from the trench outward, Alabama holds advantages in statistics, health and recent form. That dynamic could become more balanced if Georgia is healthy in the defensive front seven.
Considering the Tide have been elite in defending the slot, Beck will be forced to rely on outside weapons or a stable of running backs catching balls behind the line of scrimmage.
The winner of the interior will win the battle between Georgia and Alabama, and the Crimson Tide hold the advantage heading up to the game of the year in college football.
Pick: Alabama +2 or Better
