Georgia vs Kentucky Odds
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -1500 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +900 |
Last Saturday, Kentucky suffered an embarrassing home loss against Vanderbilt, which ended the Commodore's 26-game SEC losing streak.
The reward for UK? The defending national champion Georgia Bulldogs, whose body of work suggests they once again have the best team in the country.
On the surface, one could look at this as a prime buy low opportunity on the Wildcats, but I actually attacked a different angle from a betting perspective. Before we get to that analysis, let's briefly profile each team.
Georgia Bulldogs
The 10-0 Bulldogs have already clinched a berth in the SEC championship game and would likely need to lose two of their final three games to fall out of the College Football Playoff picture.
They passed their three biggest tests (Tennessee, Oregon, at Mississippi State) with flying colors, although they did get a bit of a scare in a four-point win at Missouri.
They've had a few hiccups turning red zone trips into touchdowns, but their impenetrable red zone defense more than compensates for any issues on the offensive side of the ball.
Plus, I'm really just nitpicking here. There are no major weaknesses for the most complete team in the country. The defense has seemingly reloaded without missing a beat after losing countless starters to the NFL draft.
Meanwhile, Stetson Bennett has the offense humming, led by the nation's most potent tight end room that creates a mismatch nightmare for any opponent.
It will require one monumental effort to take out the defending champs.
Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky is having an up-and-down season with more downs than ups of late.
After jumping out of the gates to a 4-0 start that included a road victory over ranked Florida, the Wildcats have since gone 2-4 (with a fortunate win over Missouri) to drop to 6-4 overall.
The latest loss to Vandy left fans in Lexington questioning what happened to this team that had such promise coming into the year. Well, it all starts on the offensive side of the ball.
Kentucky has simply not found a way to replace the trio of stud offensive line starters it lost in the offseason from the "Big Blue Wall" that served as the foundation of the team in recent seasons.
It also seemingly really misses offensive line coach Eric Wolford, who joined the Alabama staff in the offseason, in addition to offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who took the Los Angels Rams' offensive coordinator job.
The offensive line simply can't generate a push or protect quarterback Will Levis when he drops back to pass. That's a bad combination.
On the season, UK ranks 78th in Line Yards, 102nd in Opportunity Rate and 108th in Stuff Rate. Last season, it ranked in the top five nationally in all three categories. Its national ranking in Sack Rate has also plummeted from 54th to 129th.
As a result, Kentucky can't sustain any drives and misses the explosive element that Wan'Dale Robinson (now with the New York Giants) brought to the offense last year.
That said, you can't place all of the blame on the offensive line. Pro prospect Will Levis has played miserably for almost the entire season and his receivers haven't really helped him out.
To illustrate just how bad the offense has been, Levis finished 11-of-23 for 109 yards with no touchdowns and an interception against Vanderbilt, which arguably has the worst secondary of any Power Five team.
As I mentioned earlier, the run game isn't working either. After averaging 5.2 yards per carry in 2021 (16th nationally), the same backfield has averaged just 3.5 per clip in 2022, which ranks 110th in the country.
The defense is at least still a top-20 unit adjusted for schedule. It's a very well-schooled unit that excels in limiting explosive plays and bowing up in the red zone. They are also excellent in coverage and don't miss many tackles.
However, the same can't be said of the special teams. Kentucky has struggled in the field goal department and is now down to its second-string punter after losing an All-American last season.
Georgia vs Kentucky Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia and Kentucky match up statistically:
Georgia Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 5 | 7 |  |
| Line Yards | 27 | 50 | |
| Pass Success | 1 | 28 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 7 | 83 | |
| Havoc | 10 | 80 | |
| Finishing Drives | 5 | 19 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Kentucky Offense vs. Georgia Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 73 | 5 | |
| Line Yards | 78 | 7 | |
| Pass Success | 95 | 5 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 67 | 77 | |
| Havoc | 117 | 71 | |
| Finishing Drives | 107 | 1 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 23 | 24 |
| PFF Coverage | 14 | 18 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 14 | 86 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.6 (108) | 32.0 (131) |
| Rush Rate | 49.6% (94) | 58.1% (35) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Georgia vs Kentucky Betting Pick
If I had to bet a side in this game, it would be Kentucky purely based on my projections. However, I have no interest in putting myself through that miserable experience since I'm just not sure how the Wildcats score against this Georgia defense based on everything we've seen this season.
That's why I bet the under 49.5 earlier in the week and would take it down to 48. I just don't think the market has properly downgraded this Kentucky offense enough.
There's a reason Kentucky unders have gone 9-1 this season, covering by over a touchdown per game. And the one that went over did so by a half-point in a game Northern Illinois scored a touchdown on the final play of the first half and in the final minutes of the game after a questionable fourth-down penalty.
From a pace perspective, this game should be very slow with plenty of rushing attempts. Kentucky is actually the slowest team in FBS in terms of seconds per play, while Georgia ranks outside the top 100.
I also expect Kentucky's defense to put up a fight this week. It will make Georgia methodically work the ball down the field and likely hold the Bulldogs to a few field goals in the red zone.
Star linebacker Deandre Square should also return from injury for the Cats. That's important in this particular matchup against the elite Georgia tight ends since Square is one of the better cover linebackers in the SEC.
Historically, when Mark Stoops plays superior teams, he tries to ugly the game up and play even more conservatively and slower than usual. Consequently, under Stoops, Kentucky conference unders have gone 50-30-1 (62.5%), including a current streak of eight in a row.
In their previous three meetings, Georgia has won by final scores of 21-0, 14-3 and 30-13. And this is the worst version of Kentucky's offense by far.
There's also the potential for some wind and the possibility that Georgia comes out a bit flat after a string of three-consecutive emotional games against Florida, Tennessee and Mississippi State.
I do worry about the backup Kentucky punter. If he doesn't have a good day, it could give Georgia a few short fields, but that concern didn't prevent me from betting this under without hesitation.
Pick: Under 49.5 (Play to 48) |
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